88 isolation attempt......(and a humorous ending)

[mtdoak]

UTG is a TAG. BB is a calling station. Did I attempt this isolation attempt too early with too many behind me or is this standard. Got into a discussion with another 2+2er about it....discuss.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero folds, BB calls.
Turn: (7.16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, BB calls.

River: (11.16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, BB calls.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB

[Piiop]

Not liking it. Fold preflop.

3-betting a TAG's UTG raise with 88 is not a good idea. I would save your isolation attempts for the poor players.

[Pokey]

Isolating, I think your most likely outcome is a coin-flip with an extra 1.5 small bets in the pot to sweeten the deal and where you have position. I don't think it's too bad. UTG's flop bet is standard, though, whether he's got pocket pair, a king, or absolutely nothing. If you did make it to heads-up, I hope you don't fold the flop bet. With BB in here, too, the chances that someone likes that king are doubled, and now a fold seems proper, except for the fact that you've already got 12.33 SBs in the pot. I typically make a loose call here just to see. You don't want a TAG to see you always fold a single scare card on the flop after a multi-bet preflop. That just paints a big bullseye on your forehead.

[ceskylev]

A TAG utg? I think I fold unless the raiser has been raising like mad. Even then, I'm folding unless I'm pretty certain that I'll end up HU.

That said, I'm probably too conservative when it comes to using the isolation raise.

[Chairman Wood]

Raising to isolate isn't all that great of an idea when BB calls everything. What the [censored] are you doing postflop?

[Harv72b]

I'm definitely not folding my 88 preflop, and I can't see how cold-calling would be better than 3-betting here. It just makes it a lot tougher when he caps out of position...I can definitely understand the flop fold, given the preflop cap &amp; the K showing.

As for whether or not this is standard preflop play, I don't know. But I tend to think it should be.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm definitely not folding my 88 preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not?

[admiralfluff]

I think the isolation itself is fine in terms of how often you will get the pot heads up, but why isolate an UTG TAG riaser? I only attempt isolation with loose raisers, and I sure hope that's correct strategy. I say fold pf.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising to isolate isn't all that great of an idea when BB calls everything. What the [censored] are you doing postflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

So you wouldn't want to get an extra bet in preflop against a guy likely to call with J3s? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[CallMeIshmael]

I say nice hand.

(assuming that he isnt like a 5% PFR type tag, and more like a 9% type tag)

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because more often than not, it's the best hand.

[admiralfluff]

i'd wanna see at least 12% pfr to make a raise here, but i'm probably wrong.

[Chairman Wood]

Isn't the point to get this HU? Doesn't the value of this play go down if there are more than 2 people in this hand, even if it's a donk?

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
UTG's flop bet is standard, though, hether he's got pocket pair, a king, or absolutely nothing. If you did make it to heads-up, I hope you don't fold the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I severely hope that he does.

Hero has 2 outs about 97% of the time. 0 outs (to KK) about 2.9% of the time. And the best hand about 0.1% of the time on this flop.

[Piiop]

Really? You're either dominated by an overpair or you're a slight favorite - never a big favorite. And if you're against overcards, how happy are you gonna be betting on a board with broadway cards on it vs this player?

[Buck_65]

Honestly, when your best case scenario is a coin flip situation in which you must fold if any ace, king, OR queen flops (hence, not even a coinflip), things don't look very positive in the world of EV.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
you're a slight favorite - never a big favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're actually a pretty big favourite vs overs is he doesnt see the river.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
UTG's flop bet is standard, though, hether he's got pocket pair, a king, or absolutely nothing. If you did make it to heads-up, I hope you don't fold the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I severely hope that he does.

Hero has 2 outs about 97% of the time. 0 outs (to KK) about 2.9% of the time. And the best hand about 0.1% of the time on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly? I missed the "<font color="red">TAG caps</font>" in my first read. Pure brain fart on my part. With TAG only calling the three-bet, my advice stands; with TAG capping, I agree with you: he's either got you outpaired or his AK just hit. The only chance you have of being ahead is if he's got AQs, and the odds are safely that you're toast.

I retract my former statement, plead ignorance, insanity, and incompetence, and throw m'self on the mercy of the board. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Piiop]

What?

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
i'd wanna see at least 12% pfr to make a raise here

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree completely.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? You're either dominated by an overpair or you're a slight favorite - never a big favorite. And if you're against overcards, how happy are you gonna be betting on a board with broadway cards on it vs this player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who said anything about betting with broadway cards on the board? Hero has position on the TAG, and should be able to use that postflop. I would be delighted if UTG+1 folded 88 every time I raised from UTG with AJo.

I'll let one of the math majors break down exactly how this could go down over umpmillion hands, but I am 100% confident that playing 88 here is a +EV move, and that 3-betting with it is more +EV than cold-calling.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
What?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are not going all in preflop. As such, you cant say "I am only a coin flip to overcards" because that assumes that ALL 5 CARDS are dealt at once. This, of course, is not how the hand is going to play out.

If you can force this opponent to fold over cards after seeing only the flop, or only the turn, then you are no longer a slight favourite.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Who said anything about betting with broadway cards on the board? Hero has position on the TAG, and should be able to use that postflop. I would be delighted if UTG+1 folded 88 every time I raised from UTG with AJo.

I'll let one of the math majors break down exactly how this could go down over umpmillion hands, but I am 100% confident that playing 88 here is a +EV move, and that 3-betting with it is more +EV than cold-calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice post.

And, FWIW, I found this from Nate from the archvies (in this hand, an unknown UTG+1 raised, and hero had 88 in MP2)

[ QUOTE ]
I'm glad that you want to play your 88 here. I'd play this hand against 75-80% of the time in the Party 15/30 in this situation. It's closer here since the game is less aggressive, but I suspect that you have the postflop skills to show a profit from it. Pokertracker/gametime *really* help with these sort of decisions, btw.

But the play is to 3-bet. The reason is not so much to get the other players behind you not to coldcall, since they won't be doing much of that if the table is tight. You do want to get the blinds out, though, since they only need to pay one more bet to see the flop. It sucks when the flop is J64 rainbow, and UTG has AQ, and the big blind winds up taking it down because you let him call with J9s.

The other reason to raise is because it will occasionally lead to your opponent making an incorrect fold. An example is if he has TT and the flop is AQx rainbow. He's probably going to check-fold the flop or maybe the turn if you 3-bet before the flop. I'd guess that you steal a pot 5-10% of the time this way, which is worth something. To a lesser extent, you'd also like him to fold something like AQ on a flop of Kxx, since he'd have enough outs to continue with his hand but usually wouldn't do so if you'd 3-bet before the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

(before anyone tells me how drastically different these two hands are because the raiser is a known TAG... I will respond with: TAGs have larger raising requirements than unkowns)

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
Honestly, when your best case scenario is a coin flip situation in which you must fold if any ace, king, OR queen flops (hence, not even a coinflip)...

[/ QUOTE ]

The math says that AKo vs 88 is about a 48/52 underdog. Furthermore, if I tell PokerStove that TAG has any pair, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, or KJ and I have 88, the preflop odds of me winning the hand are about 52.5%.

Since he can't have an ace, king, AND queen, you will have to be careful against a TAG here, and you have to be willing to give some play, such as raising a bet to see if he really likes it or if he's just betting the scare card. Also, YOU get to bet all the blank cards and put HIM on the defensive. Yeah, I really think this is a pretty good "coin flip" situation -- right up to the part where BB calls and UTG caps. That's when things start to go badly for you.

<font color="blue">Edit to say: don't forget the dead money. There are two blinds at stake here, and if UTG and I are going heads-up on a coin-flip with dead money in the pot, that's got to be good for both of us.</font>

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
you must fold if any ace, king, OR queen flops

[/ QUOTE ]

I must? Really?

I tend to play poker if an A,K or Q flops to my 88.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
Who said anything about betting with broadway cards on the board?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cards above 8 usually land on the board.

[ QUOTE ]
I would be delighted if UTG+1 folded 88 every time I raised from UTG with AJo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, well that doesn't have a lot to do with anything, does it?

[ QUOTE ]
Hero has position on the TAG, and should be able to use that postflop

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. That it the one good thing.

[Piiop]

Right. We're not going all-in.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who said anything about betting with broadway cards on the board?

[/ QUOTE ]

Cards above 8 usually land on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you're planning to fold this hand heads-up to a bet when to board has any card bigger than 8, then yes -- you absolutely should fold this pre-flop. However, I don't agree with that assumption; if you play this differently post-flop, I think this could work nicely.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would be delighted if UTG+1 folded 88 every time I raised from UTG with AJo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, well that doesn't have a lot to do with anything, does it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, it does. He's saying that there are several hands that UTG bets in this situation that hate seeing 88 in the game. By isolating your 88 against UTG, you could very easily be putting yourself into a solid winning situation. Is it possible UTG has pocket aces? Sure. But to expect it every time is to see monsters under the bed, whereas often hero has the best of this hand preflop. Walking away from this situation seems -EV to me.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Cards above 8 usually land on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

9, T, J are not scare cards. These are unlikely to have paired him.

It is not overly difficult to put a tag on a range of hands here. It is also easier to deduce a TAGs hand from his actiion.

A TAG will also often make an incorrect fold preflop more often than other players. (because we 3-bet).

There was a post from like 3 days ago where CDC 3-bet a 9% PFR with 66.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you're planning to fold this hand heads-up to a bet when to board has any card bigger than 8, then yes -- you absolutely should fold this pre-flop. However, I don't agree with that assumption; if you play this differently post-flop, I think this could work nicely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying I'm planning on folding everytime there is a card higher than 8. But, there will frequently be overcards on the board and you will be in a difficult situation. Sometimes, you will make UTG fold incorrectly, and sometimes you'll be betting the worse hand the whole time.

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, it does. He's saying that there are several hands that UTG bets in this situation that hate seeing 88 in the game. By isolating your 88 against UTG, you could very easily be putting yourself into a solid winning situation. Is it possible UTG has pocket aces? Sure. But to expect it every time is to see monsters under the bed, whereas often hero has the best of this hand preflop. Walking away from this situation seems -EV to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

184,928,832 games 0.219 secs 844,423,890 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 42.2837 % [ 00.42 00.00 ] { 8h8d }
Hand 2: 57.7163 % [ 00.58 00.00 ] { AA-99, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AJo, KQo }

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
9, T, J are not scare cards. These are unlikely to have paired him.

[/ QUOTE ]

?? AJo, ATs, KJs, JJ, TT, 99.

[ QUOTE ]
It is not overly difficult to put a tag on a range of hands here. It is also easier to deduce a TAGs hand from his actiion.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, and our positional advantage definitely works well with this, but I don't think it makes enough difference.

[ QUOTE ]
A TAG will also often make an incorrect fold preflop more often than other players. (because we 3-bet).

[/ QUOTE ]

That really depends on the player and his read on the Hero, though I agree that there will be times he makes an incorrect fold.

[ QUOTE ]
There was a post from like 3 days ago where CDC 3-bet a 9% PFR with 66.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well super! How many people play as well as CDC and had a read on that player/situation to make that 3-bet?

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

184,928,832 games 0.219 secs 844,423,890 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 42.2837 % [ 00.42 00.00 ] { 8h8d }
Hand 2: 57.7163 % [ 00.58 00.00 ] { AA-99, AKs-ATs, KQs-KJs, AKo-AJo, KQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

As I have already pointed out (and you seemed to agree with me) we are not going all in preflop. As such, this data proves little.

You seem to want to ignore the fact that it is unlikely for villian to be seeing the river unpaired. This data assumes he will.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to want to ignore the fact that it is unlikely for villian to be seeing the river unpaired. This data assumes he will.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many times will the villain have to fold on the flop/turn when he would've made his hand on the turn/river to make up for this difference?

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
?? AJo, ATs, KJs, JJ, TT, 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm... its not like him catching a set with an overpair changes anything (barring SoS).

[ QUOTE ]
Well super! How many people play as well as CDC and had a read on that player/situation to make that 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, I am probably better VS my competition than CDC is versus his. Absolute ability is not of meaning here. Its relative ability.


In that thread that I quoted nate, a lot of people said to fold preflop. Clark said something like "if you are at a point in your game where you have to ask whether or not this is a fold/call/raise. Folding is probably a good idea".

I am at a point where I have the confidence in my postflop abilty vs a typical TAG that I can turn a profit with this hand.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
How many times will the villain have to fold on the flop/turn when he would've made his hand on the turn/river to make up for this difference?

[/ QUOTE ]

6/46 = 13%. This is significant.

EDIT: I think I might have misread. Is this what you mean?

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you must fold if any ace, king, OR queen flops

[/ QUOTE ]

I must? Really?

I tend to play poker if an A,K or Q flops to my 88.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha, very cool reply! You're awesome, dude! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
Haha, very cool reply! You're awesome, dude! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks dude. I'm always here to help someone who thinks (for whatever God forsaken reason) that you MUST do something a given sitution.

[mtdoak]

If I'm not capped PF I'm raising this flop and probably mucking to a 3 bet. But his capping puts such a limit on his range of hands that I'm raising a any Q high flop (or lower) and mucking to a 3 bet. If the A or K comes you know your drawing to two cards and its a safe muck.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm not capped PF I'm raising this flop and probably mucking to a 3 bet. But his capping puts such a limit on his range of hands that I'm raising a any Q high flop (or lower) and mucking to a 3 bet. If the A or K comes you know your drawing to two cards and its a safe muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Haha, very cool reply! You're awesome, dude! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks dude. I'm always here to help someone who thinks (for whatever God forsaken reason) that you MUST do something a given sitution.

[/ QUOTE ]

You on a massive downswing or something? What's with the grudge? I like you, and I hope we can someday be the best of friends. Good luck with whatever life brings you my man.

Edit: If you want me to go edit my previous post to take out the word "must" (since it puts you on life tilt), I'll do it. I was wrong, you were right, let's make up.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
You on a massive downswing or something? What's with the grudge? I like you, and I hope we can someday be the best of friends. Good luck with whatever life brings you my man.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

You had a problem. I helped you fix it. Then you said 'thanks'. I was like 'anytime'. And now you think I have a grudge?? /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You on a massive downswing or something? What's with the grudge? I like you, and I hope we can someday be the best of friends. Good luck with whatever life brings you my man.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

You had a problem. I helped you fix it. Then you said 'thanks'. I was like 'anytime'. And now you think I have a grudge?? /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you ever looked into psychotherapy?

[Piiop]

Both of you kiss now.

[mtdoak]

This hand has sparked an interesting debate. IMHO, against a UTG Raising TAG, you can safetly put him on a distint range of hands, AA-TT(30 combinations), AK-AJ (48 combinations), and KQs (4 combinations). So 36.5% of the time your in deep crap, but 63.5 of the time your a coinflip with any pocket pair. However, given the donkish nature of the BB (or any player behind you who is donkish), I would not do this with less than 77 as you have to worry about more overcards than the typical TAGs range. Obviously, cold calling is terrible here. So its a clear 3 bet or fold. However, what most people fail to realize is that, in this situation, 77-TT are basically THE SAME HAND. Say you have 10-10. So, now he can have 24 hands your in it deep against, and 52 your a coinflip against, so your still in deep do-do 31.5% of the time, or 5% less. Thats not a signifigant edge, yet if I had TT and 3 bet, it'd be 'standard' The biggest difference your going to find between TT and 88 is when your isolation fails and a 3rd party enters, which screws alot up.

[Felipe]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising to isolate isn't all that great of an idea when BB calls everything. What the [censored] are you doing postflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

what should he do?

[Felipe]

Hero has 2 outs about 97% of the time. 0 outs (to KK) about 2.9% of the time. And the best hand about 0.1% of the time on this flop.

the best hand .1% of the time??? He has a pair! what are the chances his opponents can beat him on the flop? What are the chances they have a higher pocket pair, or paired the king, or 2 paired (2 pair very low chance)?

(am I missing something........)

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
the best hand .1% of the time??? He has a pair! what are the chances his opponents can beat him on the flop? What are the chances they have a higher pocket pair, or paired the king, or 2 paired (2 pair very low chance)?


[/ QUOTE ]

The villain capped preflop. This drastically narrows his range of hands. Hero was already behind to any higher pocket pair. If the villain has AK, there is a K on the flop so he's now behind to that also.

[Buck_65]

Is 88 really that different enough from literally any pocket pair in this situation, all arguments taken into consideration? How far down shall we go? 55 makes the same number of straights, so maybe that's the cutoff point.

I'll be perfectly honest. I'm folding 99 and below here. Maybe it's right, maybe it's wrong. This reply isn't about how wrong I am, it's about whether or not 3-betting 88 here is even any different from 3-betting 55.

[Felipe]

[ QUOTE ]
Is 88 really that different enough from literally any pocket pair in this situation, all arguments taken into consideration? How far down shall we go? 55 makes the same number of straights, so maybe that's the cutoff point.

I'll be perfectly honest. I'm folding 99 and below here. Maybe it's right, maybe it's wrong. This reply isn't about how wrong I am, it's about whether or not 3-betting 88 here is even any different from 3-betting 55.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 55 differs from 88 preflop is because 55 is victim to 3 more overcards (3X4=12)12 more cards can screw up 55's chances of winning the pot (adjusting for weaktight TAG susceptibility to incorrectly folding)

and as for straight abilities, I think 55 and 88 are pretty well the same, 88 being better if the straight includeds say Q or J, and the TAG paying off (with his high cards)


[ QUOTE ]
The villain capped preflop. This drastically narrows his range of hands. Hero was already behind to any higher pocket pair. If the villain has AK, there is a K on the flop so he's now behind to that also.

[/ QUOTE ]

drastically narrowing a range of hands doesn't give 88 a 0.1% chance of winning. If 0.1% chance was an exaggeration, i can understand, but seriuosly...i disagree. I think 88 has much more than 0.1% chance of sucess at winning the pot

[Buck_65]

[ QUOTE ]
I think 55 differs from 88 preflop is because 55 is victim to 3 more overcards (3X4=12)12 more cards can screw up 55's chances of winning the pot (adjusting for weaktight TAG susceptibility to incorrectly folding)

[/ QUOTE ]

But isn't the point of this play to isolate the raiser? Are those additional overcards even a concern? I'm really curious to see what others think here.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
drastically narrowing a range of hands doesn't give 88 a 0.1% chance of winning. If 0.1% chance was an exaggeration, i can understand, but seriuosly...i disagree. I think 88 has much more than 0.1% chance of sucess at winning the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? What hands is the hero ahead of on the flop after a TAG raise/caps UTG?

Edit: And a K flops.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll be perfectly honest. I'm folding 99 and below here. Maybe it's right, maybe it's wrong. This reply isn't about how wrong I am, it's about whether or not 3-betting 88 here is even any different from 3-betting 55.

[/ QUOTE ]

IF WE CAN GO HEADS-UP, then 22 vs. AK is virtually the same as QQ vs. AK. Pairs vs. overcards play out basically the same way no matter the pairs and the overcards. Incidentally, if you know an opponent has 88, you're no worse off playing T9 against him than you are playing AK against him (you're slightly better, in fact, for the superior straight possibilities).

BUT, when you add in other players, suddenly the value of mid or low pocket pairs starts diving sharply. That's why it's so important to raise in this situation instead of just cold calling. Unfortunately, BB is a tool and overprotects his blinds, to your detriment. Also unfortunate is that this is one of those situations where MP is strong enough to cap preflop. The final nail in your coffin is the flop K that MP still bets.

*sigh*

This one didn't go the way we wanted, but that doesn't mean the play was wrong. For the most part, I STILL like this line. It would be even better if PFR came from later than UTG, if PFR wasn't a TAG, and if BB wasn't a megadonk.

<font color="blue">Edit to make it more clear which post I'm responding to.</font>

[Felipe]

[ QUOTE ]
IF WE CAN GO HEADS-UP, then 22 vs. AK is virtually the same as QQ vs. AK. Pairs vs. overcards play out basically the same way no matter the pairs and the overcards. Incidentally, if you know an opponent has 88, you're no worse off playing T9 against him than you are playing AK against him (you're slightly better, in fact, for the superior straight possibilities)....The final nail in your coffin is the flop K that MP still bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 22vsAK and QQvsAK are basically the same, but we don't know that villain has AK! SO its a pocket pair versus something BIG, but what? I think that 88 is better than 55 (if he is NOT a TAG) if he is then they are basically the same. but this is slowly not making sense b/c he is a TAG - and the rest doesn't matter.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
drastically narrowing a range of hands doesn't give 88 a 0.1% chance of winning. If 0.1% chance was an exaggeration, i can understand, but seriuosly...i disagree. I think 88 has much more than 0.1% chance of sucess at winning the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually said there is a 0.1% chance hero is ahead now.

He actually has a much higher chance of winning, because he can spike an 8.

BUT... if, for example, I am the EP TAG, it is 100% impossible for hero to have the best hand here. I would never cap in this situation with a hand that is not: AA-TT + AK (and sometimes I wouldnt cap some in there).

Im pretty sure that many other SS posters would agree that 100% of their capping range is ahead of 88 here.

Since the capper is a TAG, his range is probably very similar.

Perhaps 0.1% was a little bit of an exaggeration. But, the actual number is probably pretty small.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
But isn't the point of this play to isolate the raiser? Are those additional overcards even a concern? I'm really curious to see what others think here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, those additional overcards are not really of a concern.

BUT.. this is similar to blind stealing in a way:

When we blind steal, a lot of the time we dont want to be called, because our hand is so weak. We would rather just pick up the blinds.

BUT.. we dont blind steal 100% of the time because we need to have enough of a hand to make up for when we get called.


3-betting with 88 vs 22 vs TT (perhaps almost TT.. it does dominate ATs, and thats really the only hand that changes) are all about the same VS the TAGs range (well, not quite... 88 is better than 22 on a board of 55443, but, you know what I mean)

But we dont 3-bet with 22 because when we are 'caught' (ie. someone else enters the pot) we want enough of a hand to not be a sitting duck.