My Plays for Week 9

[TAFKAn]

Tennessee +3.5 at Indy
Tennessee's numbers are generally better than Indy's. One notable exception is the pass defense. However, the bottom line here is that Eddie George is going to run for hundreds of yards and several touchdowns vs. a terrible, terrible run defense in Indy. I love the hook and expect an outright win. I have no faith in Dungy and I never have. He is one of the more over-rated coaches in the NFL.

Pit/Cle under 43
As I pointed out before, this matchup has never gone over 43 since the CLE expansion team started. Although I don't love trends, I expect this game to play out similar to the last one. Steelers are playing VERY VERY well. I expect them to shutdown Cleveland's offense. This gives me room to see a Steeler's blowout. However, I would not be suprised to watch a tough field-position struggle between these two teams. Ball control and field position with a couple big plays, and possibly an overtime win for one of the teams. It all adds up to a low scoring affair.

Nail of the Week!
Green Bay -3.5 over Miami
I can't believe this line has dropped to 3.5. Several factors point to a big Green Bay win here.
1. Ray Lucas is not a great QB. He's not the turkey who showed up vs. Buffalo, but he's still no top tier QB either.
2. Game time temperature will be around 30 to 35. Teams from Florida playing in under 40 degree weather have a horrible record in the NFL. This is something Miami backers simply can't ignore.
3. I believe many bettors are over-estimating the impact of Cris Carter joining the Dolphins. He has had one week to get in shape and learn a new offense. Sorry, there's a reason training camp is 6 weeks long. Carter will not win the game for the depleted Dolphins.
4. The MNF home field factor. Lambeau, in the cold, on MNF, with Brett Favre starting. I'd have to be insane not to bet this one. Plus, the public appears to be on Miami for some reason. That always makes me feel better.
5. Lastly, the Packers are on a roll and both teams are moving into the part of the season where they typically change directions. Miami is known for it's late season slumps and the Packers are known for their November/December surges. I expect both those trends to start this Sunday. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

Last thing. LOVE the shoe in this week. Everyone is on the 9ers like it's a sure thing and that's always a big warning sign to me. 9ers are really hurting on defense and I've learned my lesson this year about writing teams off completely after a few losses (Baltimore, St Louis, and NYJ have all burned me). Go Big Al! I'm with you on this one. Go RAIDAS!

Good luck to all this weekend.

[Wildbill]

Ray Lucas is the only thing keeping me off the Dolphins, I think they are the better team than the Pack and I just don't buy the Pack being an elite team, not when 6 of your games will be against this sorry division. I think Lucas will play much better off the bye, having time to work in as the number one in practice. I do worry about his confidence and so I will pass, but I think the Dolphins are already being sold off as in their annual swoon, but I am not so sure it will happen this year. Williams will get stronger as the year goes on, Lamar Smith always would get weaker. Packers have a strong pass defense and a ferocious pass rush, but I don't think those will be much of a key in this game, Lucas at least is not an easy guy to bring down. If I am on the Dolphins staff I change my game up a bit and look to turn Lucas free as more of a scrambling game where he makes plays fom outside the pocket and on the move. The overaggressive Pack defense could leave some big plays open in that type of gameplan. As long as the Dolphins don't turn it over early or get much behind, they can stay close and stick to their gameplan and dictate the flow of the game. If the number starts going up late as MNF often does, I might take a look or take a shot at the ML which could be an attractive spot.

I do like the Titans a bit, but they seem like a gutless team that doesn't rise to the occasion as of late. Going on the road with the division and its playoff spot on the line is a less than ideal spot. The number and matchups do seem off and favor the dog so I am just going to pass.

The total should be a winner, I would worry less about the trend and worry more about how Cleveland will have trouble moving the ball here with their injuries and lack of consistent passing game. Line them up 5 wide is what I would do, just as everyone did early in the season. That is my only concern, if the Browns do get into a no-huddle and pass only game they could make it a longer game, but I still do like the under.

Since the Greeb Bay/Miami game is getting a lot of attention, thought I'd throw in my 2 cents also. I like Green Bay in this game also, although not quite as much as you. Dolphins are a vulnerable team away from home and I agree the Monday night air will be a little too cold for them. Favre, Green Bay at home on Monday night, hard not to take the Pack in this spot. Best of luck.--Big Al--