getting Too Fancy in the 3/6? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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philnewall

04-14-2005, 01:12 PM

Stats in MP1 are 14/11/155 hands, so a right TAG.

When he caps preflop and raisies me on the flop I have to put him on AA-JJ, with AK and TT both possible but less likely. When the ace comes on frouth this obviously decreases the chances that he has aces. My check raise on the turn was meant to fold his most likely hand that beats me KK, as I felt that given my play an ace is a likely holding for me. So is this just way too fancy, or a decent move, what other options are there on fourth? Check-calling the turn and river seems optomistic as I'm only ahead of JJ. So either some sort of stop and go or a puny check/fold.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.66 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises

Final Pot: 11.66 BB

philnewall

04-14-2005, 02:26 PM

Bumpy.

J.R.

04-14-2005, 02:33 PM

3-bet the flop if you don't feel good about things. leave the turn alone if u couldn't 3-bet the flop.

use your range of hands to estimate the frequency he has KK and QQ as well as the frequency he has something else. then estimate what you earn if KK and QQ always bet this turn (a good player shouldn't) and folds to your check-raise and also estimate what you lose to all the better hands that don't fold to the turn check-raise and compare. the total should be a red number. in other words the turn is bad

spydog

04-14-2005, 02:35 PM

Maybe it's weak, but I think this is a good situation to get passive awhen OOP against a TAG, despite having an overpair. I would check-call the flop and bet-fold the Ace turn card. I doubt he raises with a worse hand on the turn because he will fear a 3-bet and he probably just wants a showdown with JJ-KK if you lead the turn.

coolhanded

04-14-2005, 02:57 PM

I like the move----gains information-----his flop raise could mean AA, KK, AK, or JJ. Since you ID him as TAG, I fold to a reraise. If he calls, bet the river.

spydog

04-14-2005, 03:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the move----gains information-----

[/ QUOTE ]

Be very careful of making a bet on an expensive street to 'gain information'. You should normally only bet/raise to 'gain information' on the cheaper streets (PF/Flop).

Why spend 2BBs to gain information if you might fold when you could spend that same 2BBs by check-calling the turn/river, which will get you 100% ironclad information with a showdown?

Donk

04-14-2005, 03:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Stats in MP1 are 14/11/155 hands, so a right TAG.

When he caps preflop and raisies me on the flop I have to put him on AA-JJ, with AK and TT both possible but less likely. When the ace comes on frouth this obviously decreases the chances that he has aces. My check raise on the turn was meant to fold his most likely hand that beats me KK, as I felt that given my play an ace is a likely holding for me. So is this just way too fancy, or a decent move, what other options are there on fourth? Check-calling the turn and river seems optomistic as I'm only ahead of JJ. So either some sort of stop and go or a puny check/fold.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 caps, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 raises, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.66 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises

Final Pot: 11.66 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the move, especially since I think I was villain and I dumped my KK. PM me the guys name and I'll confirm.

J.R.

04-14-2005, 03:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
his flop raise could mean AA, KK, AK, or JJ

[/ QUOTE ]

why bother to type this if it has no bearing on your suggested turn play here

college_boy

04-14-2005, 03:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I like the move, especially since I think I was villain and I dumped my KK. PM me the guys name and I'll confirm.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an expensive play and I can't think of many better hands that will fold.

J.R.

04-14-2005, 03:29 PM

nice turn bet /images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

coolhanded

04-14-2005, 03:30 PM

Sorry to waste all that space, now I'm going to use more. I don't understand what you mean. If he reraises, the A didn't hurt him----that's information. If he calls, he doesn't have AA (or probably AK), which leaves KK as the only better hand he could have----that's information. If he folds, you win the pot and feel very smart. I do like Spydog's point that this could be and expensive move on the turn-----leading the turn with a bet might be good enough.

Donk

04-14-2005, 03:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
nice turn bet /images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Idiotic. Assuming it was me.

J.R.

04-14-2005, 03:33 PM

Agreed. Idiotic. Assuming it was me. 

I think it was bad regardless of who it was

Donk

04-14-2005, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
 Agreed. Idiotic. Assuming it was me. 

I think it was bad regardless of who it was

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, what if villain has AA?

J.R.

04-14-2005, 03:36 PM

think about how likely each one of thsoe hands are mathematically, and what each one of them does if you raise, and why, in light of opponents range of hands check-raise is superior to bet, chekc-call and check-fold? I/m not trying to be a jerk but trying to encourage you to think for yourself

J.R.

04-14-2005, 03:37 PM

that's not the same as betting the turn with KK, regardless of who is doing the betting now is it?

philnewall

04-14-2005, 05:27 PM

I also felt like if I was ahead, my turn c/r would fold him, which couldn't hurt, and if I'm 3-bet I can fold there, costing same no. of bets as if I'd called down on turn and river.

Carmine

04-14-2005, 05:41 PM

Let's see if I can grasp what JR is trying to say.

[ QUOTE ]
use your range of hands to estimate the frequency he has KK and QQ as well as the frequency he has something else.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if we assign Villian a PF capping range of AA-TT and AK
then I believe JR is trying to say we are not ahead of much.
We are behind 24 combinations (AA,KK,AK,TT), tie with one (QQ), and ahead of 6(JJ).

[ QUOTE ]
then estimate what you earn if KK and QQ always bet this turn (a good player shouldn't) and folds to your check-raise

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what % to assign here. Are we saying a good player would never (should never) bet this turn? Is a good player in essence giving up as soon as the A falls or is he just not allowing himself to be put into a C/R situation.

[ QUOTE ]
and also estimate what you lose to all the better hands that don't fold to the turn check-raise and compare.

[/ QUOTE ]

After the turn Ace and C/R there are 18 combinations (AA,AK,TT) that are not folding and are likely 3-betting. 6 combinations (JJ) that are folding or should, leaving 7 combinations (KK,QQ) that we assign folding, I don't know, 50% of the time. So the final tally is 21.5 combinations not folding and 9.5 combinations folding (3.5 incorrectly so).

So 69.3% of the time this line fails and 30.6% it works but only 11% of the time does Villian fold incorrectly.

The EV of this move is then:
(.30)(9)+(.70)(-2)= +1.3

Am I even close here. I suck at this math stuff.

philnewall

04-15-2005, 09:44 AM

Can't really confirm this, but it's good that my play seems to have been +ev.

adamstewart

04-15-2005, 10:23 AM

3-betting the flop would have gained useful information here, as well as possibly being for value.

3-bet the flop.

Fold the turn. You're only beating JJ. (If you want to make "a move" here, simply LEAD the turn... it has the same effect and it's cheaper. Further, players are morely likely to call the check-raise because they've already invested a bet on this street).

Note: 3-betting the flop would have changed the way the rest of the hand was played.

Adam