Question about Extracting Value

[Unparagoned]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="#C00000">SB (t1005)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t820)</font>
UTG (t615)
UTG+1 (t760)
MP1 (t775)
MP2 (t740)
MP3 (t595)
CO (t1700)
Button (t990)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t70</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls t70, SB calls t55, Hero calls t40.

Flop: (t280) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets t30</font>, Button calls t30, SB calls t30, Hero calls t30.

Turn: (t400) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t125</font>, Hero ???



Ok, so, let's run a little check-up here on my ability to extract maximum value from the hand. Do we like a call in this situation? The board looks basically perfect on the flop. Rainbow without any cards that really look to connect too much. I suppose 78 could be possible, but I'm inclined to take my chances. On the turn, do I just call here, or does it seem likely SB has a 9 and is ready to show down? Do I call trying to rope along other players or perhaps even induce a raise from MP2 or Button? Just want to see how other people go about trying to extract value from what figures to be the best hand.

[J-Lo]

i think u raise to 300 and pot commit anyone who wants to come along for the ride... there are still a few cards that u cannot bet on the river...

Again, this depends on your style. Do u like to trap-- or are u the more aggressive type-- remember this is important the times you wish to bluff at the pot.

[tech]

Call and hope someone raises behind you.

[Unarmed]

Lead 1/2 pot on the flop.

[mhcmarty]

I'd raise here. You have MP2 yet to act and the SB has an opportunity to re-raise. He may think he has you out kicked with the 9's. MP2 may have an overpair that he can't lay down. I prefer to extract value after the turn rather than the river.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Lead 1/2 pot on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, or a nice round number like 100. You were the BB so bet like you caught a small piece of the flop with your crappy random hand.

In the real hand, calling the turn is likely best. If the SB has a 9, you can always raise on the river. His small bet may entice weaker hands to call behind you on the turn.

[pokerlaw]

It seems like SB has a 9. given his leading now and check-calling the flop, probably a crap kicker (not an ace at least). A call signals to the others that you also have a 9, so I don't think much action will follow from them. Unless someone behind is a station (in which I would call), I would raise here and try to empty the SB.

[Rosencrantz1]

I guess I'm the only one folding the ducks PF. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm the only one folding the ducks PF. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it. Just because folding is wrong doesn't mean you are the only one who would do it.

[Rosencrantz1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm the only one folding the ducks PF. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it. Just because folding is wrong doesn't mean you are the only one who would do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you would play this because of the discounted price due to being on the BB? Because I'm made nervous by the raise and two calls plus the fact that half the field has folded and I'm OOP. I guess I would assume that the raiser or one of the callers (if not more than one) is on a higher pair at this point...

[Unarmed]

Getting 6-1 with a PP closing the action PF with good position relative to the raiser post-flop is a dead easy call.

[Rosencrantz1]

[ QUOTE ]
Getting 6-1 with a PP closing the action PF with good position relative to the raiser post-flop is a dead easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good position meaning that if he comes in again you can close when it gets back around?

And if the flop misses you with these you would check/fold?

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm the only one folding the ducks PF. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it. Just because folding is wrong doesn't mean you are the only one who would do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you would play this because of the discounted price due to being on the BB? Because I'm made nervous by the raise and two calls plus the fact that half the field has folded and I'm OOP. I guess I would assume that the raiser or one of the callers (if not more than one) is on a higher pair at this point...

[/ QUOTE ]

If the raiser showed me that he held AA, this is an auto-call.

Do you see why?

[I hate it when people ask that.]

[etgryphon]

Unless I'm wrong which is very possible...

It doesn't really matter that you are OOP when you are going for a set. It can be *argued* that being in the SB or the BB can be a slight advantage because you have more of an opportunity to close the action and you get to act first on the flop if you make your set. I.e. you get to be first to drive out flush draws and such or you get to go for a check raise if you have an aggressive EP player who raised.

Position means a WHOLE lot more when you are playing Suited Connectors.

-Gryph

[Rosencrantz1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm the only one folding the ducks PF. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it. Just because folding is wrong doesn't mean you are the only one who would do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you would play this because of the discounted price due to being on the BB? Because I'm made nervous by the raise and two calls plus the fact that half the field has folded and I'm OOP. I guess I would assume that the raiser or one of the callers (if not more than one) is on a higher pair at this point...

[/ QUOTE ]

If the raiser showed me that he held AA, this is an auto-call.

Do you see why?

[I hate it when people ask that.]

[/ QUOTE ]


Well, based on the other posts I would say it's based simply on the 6:1 you're getting on the initial call. I don't mind the "do you see why?" question -- I'm finding this thread (like all of them) most educational. The point is for me to throw stuff out there and learn from those who know more, right?

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Getting 6-1 with a PP closing the action PF with good position relative to the raiser post-flop is a dead easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good position meaning that if he comes in again you can close when it gets back around?

And if the flop misses you with these you would check/fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good position regardless of your flop line.

You can check, if he bets the action goes through the other players before you so if it goes Villain bets, call, call, you can drop the hammer.

You can lead, if he has an overpair he'll pop you back, if he has big overcards he'll probably call anyway.

[tech]

True, but if you miss your set and you are last to act, you can often steal the pot when the flop misses everyone.

[Rosencrantz1]

[ QUOTE ]
True, but if you miss your set and you are last to act, you can often steal the pot when the flop misses everyone.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess what I don't understand here is that you aren't last to act unless the PFR opens after your check (assuming you've missed the flop). In that case you're probably not raising, right? (again, I'm assuming missing the flop here, not hitting trips at the OP did).

Speaking of: sorry, OP, for getting so off your original post. Hope this discussion is useful to you.

[ferb]

Fold he has 96

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
True, but if you miss your set and you are last to act, you can often steal the pot when the flop misses everyone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true...which is why it is an *arguable* point, definately not set in stone. I think the advantage is a bit of a slippery slope because it is highly influenced by the level of tightness/aggressiveness of the game. I tend to think it is to my advantage in a loose aggressive game to get a PP in the SB/BB and a disadvantage in a Tighter game.

-Gryph

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess what I don't understand here is that you aren't last to act unless the PFR opens after your check (assuming you've missed the flop).

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right ... I meant my comment more in general, as opposed to the play of this specific hand.

[Rosencrantz1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess what I don't understand here is that you aren't last to act unless the PFR opens after your check (assuming you've missed the flop).

[/ QUOTE ]

You are right ... I meant my comment more in general, as opposed to the play of this specific hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. Which is why what concerned me initially about the 2s was the position. If I was CO or on the button with them, I would be much more likely to call the raise PF (based on OP's scenario)

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, based on the other posts I would say it's based simply on the 6:1 you're getting on the initial call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not the reason. If it were folded to SB and he raised to 70 with AA, I'd still call. In that case, you are only getting 2.5:1 on the call.

In NL with reasonably sized stacks, implied odds are much more important than pot odds. MP2 has 740 in his stack. You want his whole stack.

Calling costs you about 5% of your stack. You'll flop a set about 12% of the time (8:1).

As the blinds get bigger, pot odds become more important, but in side games or levels 1 + 2, you should be thinking about implied odds.

[Rosencrantz1]

I'm not sure I follow...would you mind either

1) Explaining more thoroughly
2) Referring me to a thread on implied odds in NL

Thanks. (Not trying to be difficult; just trying to improve)

[Unparagoned]

Well, this is my opinion, but it sounds basically like what Phil is talking about...one of the big ways of making chips early in these tournaments is to outflop a big hand. So, AA v. 22. I risk 70 chips with the knowledge that if I hit my set, I am probably taking AA's whole stack. If I miss, it's really easy to just let the hand go and wait for the next two cards I decide to play. I tend to notice that those places where I pick up chips early involve 1) me outflopping a good hand, 2) my premium hand running into a slightly worse premium hand or 3) just straight-up bad play on the part of the opposition (e.g. opponent with AT plays it like AK on the A high flop, and I actually have AK).

But yeah, you want to look for situations where you can potentially win quite a bit without putting much of your stack at risk, i.e. implied odds.

[Unparagoned]

Why lead into the pre-flop raiser here? I would never raise to 70 pf in her position, but if I did, I would probably be continuing post-flop. What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

[RobGW]

You have good position pre flop because you are closing the action. There can be no raise behind you. If you were in the CO you would have to worry about button and the blinds reraising which would be terrible for 22. But since you are in the BB, you are closing the action. You know for sure that you are getting 6:1 odds and that its only going to cost you another $40. You aren't calling this because 22 is the best hand. You aren't going to try to steal a pot here. You are simply trying to hit a set. If you miss then fold it. If you hit you can take raisers stack if he has AA or some otherwise good hand. You are risking $40 to possibly double through. This is great implied odds for you.

[Unparagoned]

Well, part of my reason for just calling on the turn was the fact that I thought there was a reasonable chance the pre-flop raiser might actually have a big pair. The way she had played it reminded me of the way certain sorts of players like to play strong hands. That is, small raise to try to get lots of people in and build a pot, followed by a small bet on the flop they like to again, try to keep opponents in. If it was the case that MP had some sort of big pair, I wanted to give her the chance to raise. But, I am inclined to think that I was probably wrong there and if she's the sort of player I was thinking she might be, she could just as easily come along with my raise as raise herself in that situation.

[Unparagoned]

[ QUOTE ]
i think u raise to 300 and pot commit anyone who wants to come along for the ride... there are still a few cards that u cannot bet on the river...


[/ QUOTE ]

Which cards are you scared of? Is it only having the board pair again or do you have something else in mind?

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
Why lead into the pre-flop raiser here? I would never raise to 70 pf in her position, but if I did, I would probably be continuing post-flop. What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assume PF raiser has an overpair. You want to pot commit her so you can stack her off. If you lead, she will raise. Bingo, you've accomplished your goal.

Now contrast that to the typical line most players take with 22. Check/call. Check/call. Push. You're letting overpairs get away far too easy here, not to mention the times they have JJ/QQ/KK and an overcard drops.

And just generally, slowplaying sucks

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I follow...would you mind either

1) Explaining more thoroughly
2) Referring me to a thread on implied odds in NL

Thanks. (Not trying to be difficult; just trying to improve)

[/ QUOTE ]


Pot odds are simple. Pot=240. 40 to call, so 240:40 or 6:1.

This would be enough if you only had 40 chips left or this was the river.

However, there is a lot more betting to come. If you flop a set, you will make much more than 240 on average. Coming up with this number is tricky. For one thing, you could flop a set and still lose. You could also flop and set and watch everyone fold.

I'm going to make a up number: 500. That's roughly the size of the pot plus 1/2 your opponent's stack. I refuse to get into a discussion over the accuracy of this number, so don't bother questioning it.

So, if you hit you set, you will win 500 chips on average. If you miss your set, you will lose 0 (I hope). Therefore, your implied odds are 500:40 or about 12.5:1.

Odds of flopping a set at 8:1, so this is a clear call. You won't hit a set often, but you will be paid off huge when you do. If you miss, you won't lose any additional money.

Of course, the key is determining the likehood that your opponent will give up his entire stack. This is why you are praying that he does have AA. If he is bluffing with J4, he isn't going to pay you off, and therefore you won't win that 500 chips on average.

It helps that there are a few opponents in the pot. At least one of them will lose a lot of chips here if you hit.

This is not an exact science. When playing pocket pairs, many people just use a 5% rule. If the call is less than 5% of your stack, then call. If your opponent's stack is smaller than yours, use his stack size. If you were in better position or had a better hand (ie 88), you could go as high as 10%.

While I'm here, I'll mention reverse implied odds. In the 22 example, your pot odds were 6:1, but your implied odds are 12.5:1. There are many cases in NL where your implied odds are actually worse than your pot odds (ie reversed).

Let's say you had A5o instead of 22. If you flop an Ace, you much will you win? Well, if you flop an Ace and no one has an Ace, you will probably just win the pot and maybe a little more. Let's say 300. You aren't going to take someone's stack if an Ace flops.

If someone does have an Ace, it's probably better than yours, so you will probably lose money on average. Let's say -200. They might also have a better hand like a set or 2 pair.

When you flop an Ace, let's say its 50/50 that someone else has a better Ace or a better hand. So you average win will be 100 (ie 300 - 200).

For simplicity, let's say you'll fold if you don't flop an Ace.

Therefore, your implied odds are 100:40 or 2.5:1.

Your chances of flopping an Ace are 4:1, I think. Therefore, you must fold.

4:1 looks good compared to your pot odds (6:1), but not according to your implied odds (2.5:1). Therefore, you should fold A5o here.

[By the way, every number I used in this example is wrong, so don't bother correcting me.]

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
Why lead into the pre-flop raiser here? I would never raise to 70 pf in her position, but if I did, I would probably be continuing post-flop. What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

You would lead into the raiser because they've already represented a big hand, so you're hoping that they raise you on the flop, thinking you caught something like middle pair, to protect their hand. This move is player dependent however. Against the majority of low buy-in players, it is much better to check and let them keep the lead. Many of them will NEVER check a ragged board after raising preflop, and you've got a near-perfect trapping situation. They will also raise with a lot of hands preflop at these levels, so they don't necessarily have a big pair that you can extract value from. They will fold unpaired high cards if you bet into them, they will bet unpaired high cards, if you check to them. They may even continue betting ace high on the turn. Checking the flop gives more value in the most situations.

If SB has a 9, there are only three cards that could fall on the river to give you a scare, and his money is going to the middle regardless of whether you raise the turn or river. The minimum you're going to win here is doubling through SB's stack, see if you can get a little bit more out of the other players in the hand before you take down the SB.

If SB doesn't have a 9, the worst thing you could do here is raise. Both blinds betting and raising each other on a raggedy paired board is going to send everyone else in the hand running, even if they have AA. SB is most certainly not going to call a raise from the BB if he doesn't have the goods. However, if you just call, there's a good chance he will bluff into you on the river thinking he can push you off. Calling gives more value in the more situations.

-Phoenix

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I follow...would you mind either

1) Explaining more thoroughly
2) Referring me to a thread on implied odds in NL

Thanks. (Not trying to be difficult; just trying to improve)

[/ QUOTE ]


Pot odds are simple. Pot=240. 40 to call, so 240:40 or 6:1.

This would be enough if you only had 40 chips left or this was the river.

However, there is a lot more betting to come. If you flop a set, you will make much more than 240 on average. Coming up with this number is tricky. For one thing, you could flop a set and still lose. You could also flop and set and watch everyone fold.

I'm going to make a up number: 500. That's roughly the size of the pot plus 1/2 your opponent's stack. I refuse to get into a discussion over the accuracy of this number, so don't bother questioning it.

So, if you hit you set, you will win 500 chips on average. If you miss your set, you will lose 0 (I hope). Therefore, your implied odds are 500:40 or about 12.5:1.

Odds of flopping a set at 8:1, so this is a clear call. You won't hit a set often, but you will be paid off huge when you do. If you miss, you won't lose any additional money.

Of course, the key is determining the likehood that your opponent will give up his entire stack. This is why you are praying that he does have AA. If he is bluffing with J4, he isn't going to pay you off, and therefore you won't win that 500 chips on average.

It helps that there are a few opponents in the pot. At least one of them will lose a lot of chips here if you hit.

This is not an exact science. When playing pocket pairs, many people just use a 5% rule. If the call is less than 5% of your stack, then call. If your opponent's stack is smaller than yours, use his stack size. If you were in better position or had a better hand (ie 88), you could go as high as 10%.

While I'm here, I'll mention reverse implied odds. In the 22 example, your pot odds were 6:1, but your implied odds are 12.5:1. There are many cases in NL where your implied odds are actually worse than your pot odds (ie reversed).

Let's say you had A5o instead of 22. If you flop an Ace, you much will you win? Well, if you flop an Ace and no one has an Ace, you will probably just win the pot and maybe a little more. Let's say 300. You aren't going to take someone's stack if an Ace flops.

If someone does have an Ace, it's probably better than yours, so you will probably lose money on average. Let's say -200. They might also have a better hand like a set or 2 pair.

When you flop an Ace, let's say its 50/50 that someone else has a better Ace or a better hand. So you average win will be 100 (ie 300 - 200).

For simplicity, let's say you'll fold if you don't flop an Ace.

Therefore, your implied odds are 100:40 or 2.5:1.

Your chances of flopping an Ace are 4:1, I think. Therefore, you must fold.

4:1 looks good compared to your pot odds (6:1), but not according to your implied odds (2.5:1). Therefore, you should fold A5o here.

[By the way, every number I used in this example is wrong, so don't bother correcting me.]

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent....

-Gryph