Bubble play of a 10+1...

[Baked67]

Ok, had kind of a rough downswing yesterday (got to love having wednesdays off) but I've learned by now that they come and go. I was pretty confident in my plays but a bubble bustout has me thinking i may have [censored] up.

It was four handed, blinds were 200 and 400. I have 1900 in chips and am on the button. UTG is short stacked with 970 in his stack. Small blind had me covered by 400-500 chips and BB is monster stack right around 9000 in chips. UTG folds and I have KJs. Needless to say I pushed and was called by 99 by the small blind and busted out. Was this the right move, or should I have waited for the short stack to get trampled by the blinds? Am I being results oriented here? Thanks in advance...

[four eight suited]

I like the move here. KJs is a good hand against the blinds. Your stack doesnt allow you to make a raise other than allin b/c you have <5BBs. If you are trying to win, not just place, you have to make this move. If you want to just get into the money maybe you can fold here and wait for short stack to be on the BB next hand and hope he busts out before you both are in the blinds.

[spentrent]

I think that SB made a shaky call here with 99. If he's the type of player who would also make that call with any ace I'd hesitate before I push given UTG's dire situation.

Also I'd consider my table image. Have I stolen the blinds "a lot" lately? Hell, I've had someone call me down with 78s because, in his words, "you were doing that too much."

And then there's the big stack. Did he get there by gambling it up or getting paid off with monsters?

I want to think "play to win and push it every time" but in this situation I'd feel like the intangibles -- my perception of my image, their perceptions of my push range, my perception of their call ranges -- would factor more into this decision for me rather than just a "push this" chart, because of UTG's near-death scenario.

For instance, if I thought that SB and BB were thinking like me (and the monster stack BB isn't a gambler), then I'd push without a second thought, fully expecting hands like 99 to hit the muck immediately.

Don't take this as absolute advice however... I'm fishing for someone to slap some sense into me if I appear crack-addicted for thinking what I think.

[hummusx]

In the same situation I'd push without thinking about it.

[Sam T.]

I like it, and not just because I push waaaay too often.

The argument against pushing (wait until the short-stack busts) is the main problem. If you were at t4k or so, I could see it (maybe), but if he doubles up with his desperation all-in, you're the short-stack, and scrambling to survive.

You lost a coin-flip on the bubble as a short-stack. Happens all the time.

Sam

[DMACM]

For the people who play lots of tables at once do they still have an easy time figuring out the intangibles or are more moves automatic? In my experiance with the 11's any ace here would call me here a lot but I probably play too aggressive.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
The argument against pushing (wait until the short-stack busts) is the main problem. If you were at t4k or so, I could see it (maybe), but if he doubles up with his desperation all-in, you're the short-stack, and scrambling to survive.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point I hadn't considered... you're implying that the times you take the blinds without a fight + the time you win when you get called should make up for the times you get called and lose?

How do you quantify "if he doubles up with his desperation all-in, you're the short-stack, and scrambling to survive?"

What will you NOT push here?

[Baked67]

[ QUOTE ]
The argument against pushing (wait until the short-stack busts) is the main problem. If you were at t4k or so, I could see it (maybe), but if he doubles up with his desperation all-in, you're the short-stack, and scrambling to survive.


[/ QUOTE ]

OK, that was my reasoning as well... I just needed a little bit of comfort in knowing that I made the right decision here. Thanks...

[EasilyFound]

[ QUOTE ]
SB made a shaky call here with 99

[/ QUOTE ]

For those not in the know and trying to get in the know, why is this a bad call by the SB? Because SB can only expect to be in a coin-flip here and coin-flip is not +EV when, as here, UTG is on the verge of being blinded out and eliminated?

If the game was three handed, everyone ITM, would calling w/9-9 would be a correct call?

[TruFloridaGator]

Here's some more..good push

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB made a shaky call here with 99

[/ QUOTE ]

For those not in the know and trying to get in the know, why is this a bad call by the SB? Because SB can only expect to be in a coin-flip here and coin-flip is not +EV when, as here, UTG is on the verge of being blinded out and eliminated?

If the game was three handed, everyone ITM, would calling w/9-9 would be a correct call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ehh first of all, I am not in the know. Quote the "I think" part as well next time /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

Seems to me SB has a better than 50% chance of finishing ITM because of the shortstack. So why do something that most likely knocks you OOTM 50% of the time?