99 Bubble Hand....Too Tight?

[Degen]

My only read on this guy is that I'm in two tables (out of 4 I started) and i'm shorthanded w/ him in two of them...we ended up going heads up on both of them for all the money. Weird.



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1740)
Button (t4010)
Hero (t2915)
BB (t1335)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t4010 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t4460

[Big Limpin']

No, fold is proper.

[pshreck]

Your folding queens here, too. Easy fold.

[Degen]

No no no no no....lol I call JJ and up...along with AK and probably AQ here. But 99 is too coinflippy for me.


Degen

[LeVoodoo]

[ QUOTE ]
No no no no no....lol I call JJ and up...along with AK and probably AQ here. But 99 is too coinflippy for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree with all of this

[Fatdogs12]

My analays is this: I figure in this postion you are probably going to lose 80% of the time. Most of the time he will have a higher pair and the times he doesn't he's got overcards so it's a coinflip. So what is your Expected Value (in money not chips)? First of all assuming you are in a $10 game (though it doesn't matter what $ amount you are in) lets say if you win you will place first 100% of the time if you beat him (which isn't completly correct but close enough because you will be a table monster). Lets see the figures out of 100 times:

losses:
$-10 X 80 = -800
wins:
$40 X 20 = +800

So in the scenario if you call you will probably break even (a bit less though because not every time will you place first). Now lets check out what your odds are if you continue on. First of all you will almost definetly be placing if you do not call. You are probably 85% chance of getting at least third, 60% chance of getting second or better and maybe you got a 30% chance of getting first. That means that your current expected value would look like this

That makes 25% for third, 30% for second and 30% for first with 15% going to busting out.

-10 X 15 = $-150
10 (3rd place) X 25 = $250
20 (2nd Place) X 30 = $600
40 (1st place) X 30 = $1200

Which brings you net total for folding here to $1900 (real money not chips). Where as calling is a $0 dollar net gain. So basically over 100 games you are losing a ton of money. Almost no question in my mind, gotta fold. Your odds are worth it if you held AA I believe though I havent checked the +-EV numbers.

Hope this post explains it all in good detail. Let me know

[Mr_J]

"Most of the time he will have a higher pair and the times he doesn't he's got overcards so it's a coinflip."

I think he'd be much looser than this. Hero wouldn't be calling without anything strong, and it's quite possible BB will fold hoping to outlast the other guy (although this is borderline).

[AlwaysWrong]

[ QUOTE ]
My analays is this: I figure in this postion you are probably going to lose 80% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is absurd. If the button only raises with AA he's 19% to win. 99 is a 1:1.7 dog against the top 5% of hands and a 1.1:1 favorite against the top 10% of hands. Being quite conservative put him as a 1:1.3 dog. That would have him win about 43% of the time. Being a little more generous to the button (and I think you can) he's probably a slight favorite, but it's around a coinflip overall.

So the top part of your analysis should look more like:

-10 x 50 = -500
40 x 50 = 2000

So call is $1500.

So granting you the rest of the post, he loses $400 over 100 games by calling. Still significant and you still draw the same conclusion, but it's obviously way closer than you thought.

[Fatdogs12]

Yeah good point... I didn't break out the odds beofre I wrote it.

Thanks

[curtains]

Painful as it is, you should probably fold.

[Nottom]

99 is way above AQ on my calling list. If folding 99 is right you should certainly be folding it AQ as well. If you are folding TT, then you shouldn't be calling with AK.