Give me a line: 88 10/20

[Guy McSucker]

Party 10/20.

I open raise 88 in MP. CO 3-bets. He's a solid-ish player who raises every time he enters a pot as far as I recall. I don't remember seeing him 3-beet much, but only because I don't remember it being raised ahead of him much. These games aren't as aggressive as everyone makes out. Anyway.

Folded back to me and I call. Anyone want to cap here?

Flop: A T 4.

What kind of line should I take here?

Guy.

[krishanleong]

I hate a bet-fold in this spot. I think I like a check call, lead the turn, fold to a raise in this spot. I haven't tried it enough to know if that line is any good though.

Krishan

[Apocalypse]

im check-folding here unless i have a very good grip on my opponent to bring anymore chips in the middle with thirdpair, an ace on the flop, bad position and being 3-bet preflop. For most cases, i think excellent players may be able to show some profit with these kind of hands in such scenarios, but anybody less than that should keep their hands off it until they get there. They are easily big losers, and just slight winners if played optimally i think. Doesn't mean i don't know the wrenching feeling of folding here though /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[wuarhg]

check-fold, I doubt he's paying you off if he has a worse hand. And if he's a solid player as you say what do you think he 3-bets?

[jfresh]

sometimes i'm tempted to call down if the ace is the only overcard to my pocket pair... with that T out there though, i think every had he 3bet with beats you, or has many many outs (KQ, KJ... QJs?) and i don't see him folded KK QQ JJ having position. i feel like a wimp and check fold the flop.

[rory]

check-fold the flop.

[Guy McSucker]

Hehe. So check-fold is the consensus. I can live with that. Thanks everyone.

I checked the flop, he bet, I planned to fold but found myself clicking the call button: I'm new at 10/20 and you guys keep telling me it's super-aggressive, which I think is a lie, but anyway, I convinced myself I couldn't fold. Quite what my plan was for the rest of the hand I have no idea.

Turn: A. Check, check.

River: J. Yuck. I stupidly bet. He called. 55 is no good. I won.

So yeah, check-fold is good I think, because I had no way through the hand.

Are people routinely three-betting 5-5 preflop in this game?

Guy.

[arkady]

I think that might be a bit expensive against a 3-bettor and 2 overs that are likely to have helped him.

Not to mention the SnG on the turn like that shows weakness more often and I will raise that almost all the time because I think its a draw. While lets say if I had 99, I just *might* check it. Then you get a free river and maybe a free SD.

With that being said, I think check/fold is best here and it's more smart than weak.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]

Are people routinely three-betting 5-5 preflop in this game?

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, yes they are. Which is why I couldn't in good conscience add my voice to the chorus of those saying check/fold, even though they might quite possibly be right. At any limit below 10/20, sure. But you'll get 3-bet here by any Phil Hellmuth wannabe holding just about any pocket pair, as well as QJs or KJ.

It would be worth it to do a pokerstove/twodimes (forgot which one) analysis on this sucker, assuming Villain 3-bets with any pocket, KQ-KJ, QJ, and A9 and better. Any volunteers?

[jfresh]

there really is no reason to give a preflop 3bettor in 10/20 credit for an ace. that being said, there are too many cards that can come on the turn and river that will either a) help him or b) scare you. being out of position will make it expensive to see a showdown.

what would you have done if he bet the turn? what if the turn was a face card?

[Joe826]

Was it a rainbow board? Against a solid player I don't think a flop check/raise is a bad idea. Alot of times they'll lay down 99, JJ-KK here. Of course if they call it gets tricky, and a check/fold might be in order.

Generally I don't think check/folding on this board is horrible though.

[rtrombone]

[ QUOTE ]
I open raise 88 in MP. CO 3-bets. Anyone want to cap here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Every time.

[krishanleong]

Interesting, so my check-call bet line might have been good here. Nice hand Guy.

Krishan

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

there really is no reason to give a preflop 3bettor in 10/20 credit for an ace. that being said, there are too many cards that can come on the turn and river that will either a) help him or b) scare you. being out of position will make it expensive to see a showdown.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I let you check-fold guys persuade me. I am sure you are right. And my river bet in this hand was ridiculous.

Guy.

[Jeff W]

Board: Ac Td 4h

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 37.5590 % [ 00.37 00.00 ] { 88 }
Hand 2: 62.4410 % [ 00.62 00.00 ] { AA-22, AKs-A9s, KQs-KJs, QJs, AKo-A9o, KQo-KJo, QJo }

This is a classic case where your effective equity is much less than your pot equity.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]

This is a classic case where your effective equity is much less than your pot equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry to be daft, but can you explain what you mean by that? Do you simply mean that bcs you're out of position you'll have to pay more when you're behind?

So figuring 3.5BB in the pot preflop, you'll have to invest 2.5BB to call down betting from flop to river, giving you 2.5:6.0 odds, or around 1:2.2 -- and technically you would only need 1:1.8 or so, right? Though there's probably not a river bet (or a turn bet) when you're ahead . . .

Hmmmmmmm.

[Jeff W]

-Grisgra

You get the gist of it, though in my original post I didn't comment on whether or not a calldown was profitable, only that your profit is less than what is suggested by your pot equity.

This situation interests me, so I will analyze it further when I have some time.

Consider this, for now: If you call down 2.5 bets, you must collapse his hand range and your pot equity will be less than 37%.

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
Consider this, for now: If you call down 2.5 bets, you must collapse his hand range and your pot equity will be less than 37%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, and you need at least 30% or so. And while stuff like TT-AA will almost always 3-bet preflop here, you'll get a 3-bet out of 22, 33, QJo only some of the time.

That, combined with being out of position, pushes this to check/fold IMO, though against some opponents (those that might check behind on the turn without an ace) it may be worth it to check/call the flop. You might hit your 2-outer, and if the turn is a blank and your opponent doesn't bet it, there's a much better chance you're ahead.

[Jeffage]

Check and fold.

Jeff