Difference Between 50+5 100+9 and 200+15

[Degen]

Sorry to post this but I've had horrible luck with the search function. I'd like to

A: Start up a badass thread about the differences between all of these

or

B: Find some badass old threads that already cover it


Anybody have any thoughts?


I'm kinda hoping that the big jump is 33 to 55 and then its subtle from 55 to 109. I'm pretty sure the 215 is a shark tank but any thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated. Also any PM's would be very welcome as I'm sure the real killers don't like putting their tricks out for the masses.
I'm just looking for the basic info...% of fish, % of top players etc. per table.


Also what types of ROI's should be attainable?

IMO @ 33 a strong ROI is in the high 20's and early 30's

what about in 55, 109, 215????


Thanks in advance

Degen

[citanul]

the move from 55 to 109 is pretty harsh compared to the move from 33 to 55, imo.
by pretty i mean really.

the move from 109 to 215 is hm, probably an even bigger move.

citanul

the above post neglects things like time of day and table selection, you can of course find a good 215 table every while that is softer than a hard 55 table. probably even softer than a hard 33 table, if you look.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm kinda hoping that the big jump is 33 to 55 and then its subtle from 55 to 109. I'm pretty sure the 215 is a shark tank but any thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated.
Degen

[/ QUOTE ]

My experience is that that's wishful thinking. I have found the $109s to be significantly more difficult than the $55s, and certainly a much bigger adjustment than $33 to $55. If I had to sum up the most important thing to consider in the move from $55 to $109, its "Get the heck out when you're beat".

I don't play the $215s so I can't offer any experience there.

eastbay

[Apathy]

I agree with eastbay here, and I really haven't played enough 200's to comment but you will notice a big skill difference between 50s and 100s for sure, as well as about triple the swings, maybe more. ($wise not buyin wise).

[Maulik]

Raptor, please chime in if you play the $215s

[Degen]

wow...ok well i can't say that that is good news but i'm sure glad you guys responded


what about the ROI considerations? i was willing to make 33 money but my friends kept trying to get me to move up so i gave in. i'm not trying to be greedy but if there is more money to be made i can't see why i shouldn't move up.


what do you think a strong player can make 4-tabling the 55's? not a world-class player but an SNG pro.


20-25% ROI? Is that wishful thinking?



Thanks


Degen

[Degen]

oh wow...f-that

thats what i love about SNG"s..the swings are small down, and big up /images/graemlins/grin.gif


Degen

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

what do you think a strong player can make 4-tabling the 55's? not a world-class player but an SNG pro.

20-25% ROI? Is that wishful thinking?


[/ QUOTE ]

I am not a SnG pro, but I do know that 20-25% 4-tabling the $55s can be done.

eastbay

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

what do you think a strong player can make 4-tabling the 55's? not a world-class player but an SNG pro.

20-25% ROI? Is that wishful thinking?


[/ QUOTE ]

I am not a SnG pro, but I do know that 20-25% 4-tabling the $55s can be done.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems a lot harder than it used to be.

-Jman28

[Mr_J]

Degen, I think your estimates are a bit high. 20% 4tabling the $55s seems pretty strong (from what I remember irieguy and raptor are about 20ish).

Your 25-35% for the $33 seems too high as well. I would've thought that 25%ish was very strong, but after irie saying that the 3 best $33ers he knows are sub 20% this year then maybe they've gotten tougher (and 20-25% is where it's at).

To me a good ROI is anything that can make a good amount of money. If raptor 12 tabled the $109s for just 5% ROI I'd call it solid, since he could bring in over 200k in just 4hrs a day.

[Degen]

i have 1k logged for the 33's and have 27.5% ROI....this is November to April.


Degen

[elcheapo]

Honestly, I play the 33's usually between 10 and 4 during the day PST and I've maintained a solid 33% ROI over maybe 700 in the last 2-3 months. If you maintain a tight aggressive stance for the first 4 rounds you usually can get in the top 6 and then from then on it becomes a blind stealing extravaganza. If you know when to steal and who to steal from your ITM should be close to 45% and depending on luck and heads up play can give an ROI between 30 and 40.

[eastbay]

Move up to $55 and get to work. But don't think about $109 until you've got 1k $55s under your belt. All IMO.

eastbay

[Mr_J]

"If you know when to steal and who to steal from your ITM should be close to 45% and depending on luck and heads up play can give an ROI between 30 and 40. "

I think this is very optimistic for 4t+ tabling.

For $33ers I would've thought 25-30% 4+ tabling was right up there until read that the top $33ers Irie knows haven't done nearly that well this year.

As for your ROI and degens, remember how much variance there is in sngs. Your results so far are mostly likely above your true expectation (particuarly yours- 33%).

[elcheapo]

Probably, all these tournaments are 4 tabled due to limited time as a student and part time worker (which I quit before February). Honestly I've had really horrible sets where I've lost 10-15 buyins over a day or two but I've always bounced back the next week and had a 80% ROI over say 40-50. I've seen many swings and taken more bad beats than I can remember but I can always count on the fact that I will always play solid cards and that is the real difference maker. It also helps that people raise to 3 times the BB at level 1 with aces or kings while I hit a set of sevens to take all their chips. "OMG I have aces and 5 people have entered the pot, I'm going to raise to 60 chips and there will be 400+ chips which will all be mine because of my unbeatable hand:)"

[Mr_J]

BTW, I'm not saying you aren't good. To hit 33% over 700 you probally are pretty good. I'm just saying that you won't have an accurate idea of what your ROI is after just 500-1000 sngs.

I'm not trying to come off as a hotshot sng'er, it's just that I feel I'm more experienced with variance and what to expect than most people who have played a similar number of sngs.

[Degen]

ok thanks for the advice

Degen

[Degen]

"who to steal from"


How do you manage this while 4-tabling? I do ~40% ITM and ~27.5% ROI and i've always thought I could do a little better...maybe this is what i'm missing, trying to steal from calling stations and not stealing enough from the rocks.


Degen

[Degen]

"remember how much variance there is in sngs"

I keep hearing this over and over and over and over.

I've been playing damned near full-time for a long stretch and the worst i've done is to have a slight losing month once (-$170) and a break even weak here and there.


Andybody ever try Live NL for a living? THAT is variance.


Degen

[Mr_J]

Try 8 tabling for awhile and then it's crazy how much easier your 4tabling will be (you'll become more efficient making decisions, so will be able to focus better on getting reads). This is the difference I felt when I had to 4table for a few hours instead of my usual 6. Just an idea.

[elcheapo]

I think I'm a solid, fairly straight forward player which is good for small stakes limit,NL and medium level tourney's sng and MTT 33-55 (even though I did win the empire 200k:). I just don't see how a consistent not overly tight nor aggressive way of playing will cause huge variance over hundreds even thousands of sng's. Like I said I could see a break even fifty-sixty sngs but then I could just as easily have a 50 ROI over the next 125-150. I would say my ROI in sets of 100 have gone like 45,35,25,30,35,30,40. Not to say that the possibility of much greater variance is not readily available but I doubt my next 3 months are going to look like 20,15,20,30 etc. (knock on wood).

[Mr_J]

""remember how much variance there is in sngs"

I didn't mean compared to other poker, I just meant as in what to expect (people underestimate it).

"and a break even weak here and there."

Over 1k sngs, then no wonder your ROI is at 27.5%, you haven't encounted the dark side of variance!!!

[Degen]

as I said...i can't see how i've just had a 'lucky six months'

I think that maybe some people have a style of play that brings this on.

I hate to be the guy at the end of the Dot-Com bubble going 'these stocks are gonna keep rising forever' but i'm really starting to beleive that this is what its like.

i hope i didn't just jinx myself into some horific losing streak but my pattern has been pretty damned consistent.

break even week...huge off the charts 100 tourneys...lose a little, break even week...huge off the charts 100 tourneys. repeat. repeat.


Degen

[Mr_J]

"I just don't see how a consistent not overly tight nor aggressive way of playing will cause huge variance over hundreds"

The experiences of countless posters here seems to suggest otherwise.

"Like I said I could see a break even fifty-sixty sngs"

Just keep playing.

You guys have been lucky so far, but trust me, if you keep playing you will encounter real variance. Just don't say no-one warned you.

[elcheapo]

Well, these are 33's and the quality of play is slightly less than the 109 and 215 levels where the variance inherit in the level of play (from real pro to to real stupid)makes it a whole other ball game. I mean aces at the 33's can only be cracked so many times right:)

[Mr_J]

"i can't see how i've just had a 'lucky six months'"

Six months can mean anything, better to call it 1k sngs. Raptor broke even over something like 1k sngs.

Sure you can have a lucky 1k sngs. 1K sngs is not that great a sample.

"I think that maybe some people have a style of play that brings this on."

I don't think this really affects things. There were some threads about the variance of sngs and I think variance is pretty consistent from person to person (something like 1.6-1.8???).

You can't believe your've had a lucky 1k sngs?? Take me as an example. I've played 500 $33s and broke even over them. I know I am not a breakeven player, and expected 15-20% (give or take thanks to variance). I did a coaching deal with Irie. He thought I was decent heading into it, and even if I wasn't, after what I learnt I know I'm much better than breakeven. If I can be that unlucky over 500 sngs, you could be that lucky over as many.

Now take the $22s. Recently jumped there. I've 6 tabled there for 300 and hit 35% ROI (inc my 25-30ish buyin drop yesterday). That is above where I think my skill level is.

So according to both of you then I'm bad at the $33s and solid at the $22s??? Nope. I just had an aweful run at one and a good run at the other. That is variance.

[Mr_J]

"Well, these are 33's and the quality of play is slightly less than the 109 and 215 levels"

From what I remember stupidsucker had a 30-40 buyin drop at the $33s. Irieguy had a 30-40 buyin drop at the $33s. I'm sure there are other regular posters who have experienced similar runs at the $33s.

[Degen]

"The experiences of countless posters here seems to suggest otherwise. "


I don't want to get anybody frazzled...but I'd like to note that because one posts here often...that player is NOT NECCESARILY a dominant SNGer.


Degen

[Mr_J]

" NOT NECCESARILY a dominant SNGer."

True, but there have been a few dominant SNGers post terrible runs.

[Degen]

"regular posters"

Again...you are using the term 'regular poster' as if it were synonymous with 'winning player'. I'm not saying they are or are not, but I do not think that it should be assumed so freely.


Degen

[Degen]

I'd reccon not at the 33's.

Maybe at 200+15 where you run into so many great players.


Degen

[Mr_J]

Wow this thread is building up my post count, better cool it then.

I'll just say this: I pointed out that there is great variance that both of you obviously haven't encounted. Many others have experienced it, and if you guys are going to play seriously you will likely experience it too.

[Mr_J]

Irieguy isn't a dominant SNGer??

[Degen]

Thanks for the input. 25-30 in one day????? Ouch man! Would you mind letting me check one of your HH's? I want to see if we play the same, cuz if we do i'm sure you are right.


BTW what is 1.6-1.8? Is that a math thing (as in statistics and probabilities etc.)??

Degen

[Degen]

Dunno. I've never played with him. I keep hearing him referred to here like some kind of mythical figure but thats all i know of him. Wasn't he involved in that whole backing fiasco?

Degen

[DasLeben]

You know, you guys could just consolidate all of your posts into one or two, instead of constantly making new ones. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[DasLeben]

Oh, 100 posts.

There, I'm a hypocrite.

[Mr_J]

"BTW what is 1.6-1.8?"

The standard deviation.

"25-30 in one day"

Yeh. 6talbing might've contributed, although I feel comfortable doing it, maybe it has more of an effect on my ROI than I thought.

Another thing is I've spent alot lately and I was getting low on funds. I think I tightened up on the bubble as a result.

Even if these were factors, they might only make a 10% difference in ROI.

Problems were running into alot of Ak and higher PPs when stealing, getting called by silly hands and losing the resulting coinflip and being card dry. I'm very confident I'm unbiased about this.

BTW, I've had days where I've won 20-30 buyins.

Think I might post a HH anyway.

[Mr_J]

Well all of mine are replies, I can't read their mind and know what they're going to say /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I get where they are coming from. They've played quite a few sngs and haven't encountered much variance.

As to irie, he's one of the most knowledgable posters here. Yeh this place treats him like a god /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[BradleyT]

[ QUOTE ]
as I said...i can't see how i've just had a 'lucky six months'

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands do you play in a typical SnG? Now how many of those are bubble or ITM hands?

Now do you see why 1000 SnG's is barely scratching the surface? I think it gives a decent indication of your ITM% however ROI it doesn't as you've only got a couple of ten thousand hands in the critical area (bubble/itm) of a SnG.

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
wow...ok well i can't say that that is good news but i'm sure glad you guys responded


what about the ROI considerations? i was willing to make 33 money but my friends kept trying to get me to move up so i gave in. i'm not trying to be greedy but if there is more money to be made i can't see why i shouldn't move up.


what do you think a strong player can make 4-tabling the 55's? not a world-class player but an SNG pro.


20-25% ROI? Is that wishful thinking?



Thanks


Degen

[/ QUOTE ]

i am no where near a pro (ie: i still think about pushing w/77 at lvl3 and going for coin flips when NOT short stacked), but i have 25% roi at $50+5

or -50% roi at 50+5, depending on acct /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
as I said...i can't see how i've just had a 'lucky six months'

I think that maybe some people have a style of play that brings this on.

I hate to be the guy at the end of the Dot-Com bubble going 'these stocks are gonna keep rising forever' but i'm really starting to beleive that this is what its like.

i hope i didn't just jinx myself into some horific losing streak but my pattern has been pretty damned consistent.

break even week...huge off the charts 100 tourneys...lose a little, break even week...huge off the charts 100 tourneys. repeat. repeat.


Degen

[/ QUOTE ]

lol... you have NOT seen a downswing yet.

at 30+3, i was -$1800 in DEC

at 50+5, i;'ve had multiple 18 OTM streaks

[Apathy]

As far as downswings go I havent had it too bad yet. One or two 2k drops (18 or so buy ins at that time) in a week or so was my worst.

I know raptor has said he's had 700 breakeven and a 50 buyin drop. I think dali has said the same, so that's about as bad as it can get if you are a pro.

[1C5]

And how many SnGs have you played in total?

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
And how many SnGs have you played in total?

[/ QUOTE ]

NOt nearly as many as them /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[1C5]

Guess that explains it then. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
Guess that explains it then. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Hopefully not... I mean I could easily handle a 50Buyin drop but I wouldn't want to. To answer your question a litle better I have played around 500 109s SNGs and a handful of 200s in the last month, while trying to study for exams. I have played many more then just last month obviously, and theres still a few days left in my 'month' which started on the 17th of March.

[1C5]

Just as a curious question. Just wondering when you started playing SnGs at party and how many you played at each level before moving up?

I want to be safe and move up when the time is right but I also don't want to be stuck at the $22s for the rest of my life.

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
Just as a curious question. Just wondering when you started playing SnGs at party and how many you played at each level before moving up?

I want to be safe and move up when the time is right but I also don't want to be stuck at the $22s for the rest of my life.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unlike a couple others I'd prefer to keep that stuff off the boards from now on, PM me and we'll talk.

[1C5]

/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[citanul]

honestly, i'd move up from the 10s to 20s to 30s fairly quickly, if you're good at managing bankroll, i'd take a fair number at the 30s before moving up to the 50s, though 500 isn't a shabby number or too small or anything like that if you feel good and the bankroll is there. i'd take an even larger number, though no need to go crazy, before moving from the 50s to the 100s, and again a larger sample before moving up to the 200s.

again, as has been said many times around here, it has a lot ot do with your comfort levels and personality.

citanul

[Scuba Chuck]

This is only from memory, but I thought I read a while back (so pre-STEP 5s), that Giga had a $16,000 downswing. Assuming he meant just on the $215s, that would be ~75 buyin drop. I assume, Degen, that he at least has some credibility at being an SNG pro?

From my own personal experience, I know what it **feels** like to be on the wrong side of variance. It doesn't mean that you're making bad decisions. For example, how many times can you really lose when you have all your chips in the middle preflop with AA headsup? It's happened so many times to me in the past two weeks, that I almost dread getting AA now (which I really don't). In fact, in the past two weeks, I've had such a poor success rate with solid hands in the early levels, or losing out being more than a 2:1 favorite when it's 4 and 5 handed, that I now understand why a "pro" would quit this game. It can be very frustrating.

I truly think that you have been lucky enough to not have experienced negative variance yet. If I were you, I'd be happy that is what's happening. Otherwise, you might have quit poker by now.

With regards to your comments on Irieguy, I think he deserves more respect than that.

[1C5]

ok thanks for the info.

And Scuba, I have been impressed how fast you moved up to the 55s, do you plan on staying there for awhile now?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
And Scuba, I have been impressed how fast you moved up to the 55s, do you plan on staying there for awhile now?

[/ QUOTE ]

As long as the ROI is positive, no matter how small, I will stay at the $55s. They are very beatable, IMO.

A 10% ROI (yuk) at the $55s, at a 1000 games in a month is still $5500 plus rakeback, so ~ $7k a month. I'd rather struggle here than win at the lower levels.

[citanul]

yeah, 7k in a month, that's shitty.

citanul

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

what do you think a strong player can make 4-tabling the 55's? not a world-class player but an SNG pro.

20-25% ROI? Is that wishful thinking?


[/ QUOTE ]

I am not a SnG pro, but I do know that 20-25% 4-tabling the $55s can be done.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Do you know of anybody who's doing that over their last 1000 or so?

Multitabling at that limit, I would expect more modest results even for an expert.

Irieguy

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
This is only from memory, but I thought I read a while back (so pre-STEP 5s), that Giga had a $16,000 downswing. Assuming he meant just on the $215s, that would be ~75 buyin drop. I assume, Degen, that he at least has some credibility at being an SNG pro?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, Giga posted about a downswing that few can rival. Good point, Scuba...hopefully that will help Degen understand.

[ QUOTE ]

From my own personal experience, I know what it **feels** like to be on the wrong side of variance.


[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, from what I've read and talked with you about....I'm not sure you have. You surely have experienced some not so great variance, but you haven't been close to 'IT' yet.

[ QUOTE ]

I truly think that you have been lucky enough to not have experienced negative variance yet. If I were you, I'd be happy that is what's happening. Otherwise, you might have quit poker by now.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is painfully obvious to me from reading Degen's posts. Degen, you may be a 40% ROI player for all I know (very very unlikely) but from what you mentioned previously in this thread, you have been running, very, very (not just sort of) well. SNG variance is smaller than any other structure of poker.....BUT the variance is still nothing to scoff at. I say this to try and help so that when you hit a stretch you never thought possible, you don't rip your eyes out.

[ QUOTE ]

With regards to your comments on Irieguy, I think he deserves more respect than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

He does. But it's understandable in some senses that Degen questions his ability. I'm not sure Degen has really read enough of Irie's posts carefully enough to realize just how dominant a player he is. And yes, Degen, Irie has had to deal with *much* worse variance than you have at the $33s.

Frankly, I'm sure that you can mathematically demonstrate your run to date has been on the 'good' side of variance. STTs have a SD of ~1.6-1.8 (for just about any ROI player)...and *this* is what will by and large determine variance. Playing style will have something to do with it, but not nearly as much as you think.

Yugoslav

[Gramps]

I've been learning to 6-table the last month or so, so I've been mixing in some 109s with 215s (2/4 or 3/3) before I get fully comfortable (it's going to take a while - getting shorthanded in all 6 games is still mayhem - yesterday I accidently clicked on "post blind and fold" in a 215, and FORGOT that I was still alive in the game (it was hidden and b/c I was in post blind/fold mode it wouldn't pop back up when I got dealt another hand). I got blinded off over 20 hands and finsihed 4th - UGH.).

There's good players at both levels, but there's clearly more awful/clueless players at the 109s - not just the action junkie/reckless maniac players, but players who truly have no clue (calling big flop bets with absolutely nothing, calling off most of their chips on Level 1 with 3rd pair, literally playing any two cards PF, even when raised, etc.). I almost never see that type of bad player at the 215s (mostly just the action junkie/maniacs).

So - 109s, the bad players are worse, and there are probably a few less sharks in the water. In my limited recent experience (about 400) at least.

[Degen]

i'm shocked

a post from Yugo with poker as its basis

Well done sir, well done.


Degen

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm shocked

a post from Yugo with poker as its basis

Well done sir, well done.


Degen

[/ QUOTE ]

Please do not worry,
this post will have no content,
Pooh-bah here I come!

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

Yugoslav
Who thinks it's funny that for all the flack Scuba used to give him about posting so much....Scuba actually hit Pooh-Bah first, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[Degen]

if only they had a category for people who waste our time, have no life and know nothing (or at least share nothing) about poker.


Degen

[johnny005]

I've been reading through this post And it really confuses me??!!
I can understand why degen even posts? He asks a question.... then argues with all the answers that he is getting. Has anyone else noticed this?

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been reading through this post And it really confuses me??!!
I can understand why degen even posts? He asks a question.... then argues with all the answers that he is getting. Has anyone else noticed this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but my opinion doesn't count b/c I'm incapable of posting about poker related content and thus, my opinions on how Degen discusses poker content has no bearing here.

FWIW, Raptor and Dali do almost the same thing sometimes...the difference is that they're generally trying to educate this way and do the arguing in a different manner. Oh, and Scuba posts stuff and then argues every side of it until no one knows what's going on anymore...anyone noticed this? /images/graemlins/grin.gif At least this opens every possible door for discussion...

Oh, and FWIW, GauchoFish also liked to post something, begging for honest answers to a serious question...I forgot what happened after he started getting answers though..../images/graemlins/confused.gif.

Yugoslav

[Apathy]

It's not their fault everyone is retarded.

[Chaos81]

[ QUOTE ]
He asks a question.... then argues with all the answers that he is getting. Has anyone else noticed this?

[/ QUOTE ]
I have, I find it quite entertaining, especially now that Yugo has chimed in.

Yugo, don't take that the wrong way, I look foward to you posts. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[XChamp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

what do you think a strong player can make 4-tabling the 55's? not a world-class player but an SNG pro.

20-25% ROI? Is that wishful thinking?


[/ QUOTE ]

I am not a SnG pro, but I do know that 20-25% 4-tabling the $55s can be done.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Do you know of anybody who's doing that over their last 1000 or so?

Multitabling at that limit, I would expect more modest results even for an expert.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]


I have a close friend that currently 4-tables the $50s on Party for 50+ hours a week. He has put in about 1500 games the past 5 weeks. His ROI is 20%. It can be done, especially since I believe there are holes in his game.

He is an absolute monster in the early rounds.

True he may be running well, but if that is the case then I still think 20% ROI is possible since his bubble and ITM play need a little work.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Yugoslav
Who thinks it's funny that for all the flack Scuba used to give him about posting so much....Scuba actually hit Pooh-Bah first,

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhh, I keep reading this statement. Are you talking about The Yugoslav in the third person?

Scuba
who once thought pooh bah status meant you knew something /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[raptor517]

does this friend of yours have aim? i would love to talk to him.. holla

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? Do you know of anybody who's doing that over their last 1000 or so?

Multitabling at that limit, I would expect more modest results even for an expert.

[/ QUOTE ]

Irie, I do not have the ROI, nor do I have a large enough sample anyway, but I truly feel a 20+% ROI is very attainable at the $55s. (Unless there really is PP collusion to help KQo beat my AA level 1 PF). The $55s play totally like the $22s. But that being said, I'd prefer you to stay at the $109s.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and Scuba posts stuff and then argues every side of it until no one knows what's going on anymore...anyone noticed this? At least this opens every possible door for discussion...


[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I love you man.

OK, some poker info. Small Sample. I tried playing the 9 man $55 PS turbos today. Got in about 20. Is it just today, or are they always this soft? Seriously, these games are like the Party $10+1s. Everyone just beats each other up. I'm pretty sure you can fold into the money (which now that I've said that, everyone prolly thinks I do). Anyway, I think it's worth a stab. Games are fast, and payout is virtually the same as party's just $2.50 less for first.

[raptor517]

ok, before reading all of this, im going to throw in my 2 cents. here goes

the 55s are cake. anybody with any clue about poker can tear them up and spit them out. longterm even when i was learning i had around 17%ish roi. thats over almost 5k sngs.

the 109s are like a cupcake. not quite the full blown wedding cake that the 55s are, but still not very difficult. there are plenty of idiots willing to donate their money playing every hand and throwing it in there with TP no kicker on the flop. i love seeing J10 get it in against AA on a J72 board and J10 win. absolutely love it. people play weak bubbles still in the 109s also.

ok, now the 215s. ugh, the 215s are like that chocolate truffle in american wedding. if you havent seen it, its a piece of dog sh**. for the most part, there are not that many idiots except on fridays and saturday. ALL of the regulars know how to be super agressive on the bubble. some of them call too much for my liking, but that just makes it more difficult on us, the educated players. bah, i have only played around 350 of them this month, and thats really the first shot i have taken, and i have swung around like an elementary school girl on a tire swing.

so the difficulty difference between the levels.. hmm. the jump from the 55s from the 109s CAN be tough, as there are not quite as many idiots there. however, if you understand good sng concepts, you should do fine. the jump to the 215s can be a trainwreck, and has destroyed many. i came out with a bang up 5k over 40, then after 100 i was down 4k. neat lil 45 downswing right at the beginning. worked it back up and am slightly up after 350ish. you need a lot more than basic sng knowledge to beat the 215s. you have to be able to handle 5k swings like they are nothing. not just your bankroll, but your mind as well. this can be difficult for all but the most hardened of sngers.

hope this helped, and ill try to read through all of this other stuff and throw in my thoughts. holla

[raptor517]

10% roi isnt yuck at the 55s. its quite good. anybody over 15% is an AWESOME player, and there are probably not double digits of those guys. people need to start understanding the difference between the 55s and the 10s. 25% is very doable at the 10s, and people get pissed when they are only 17% or so. at the 55s, having over 10% is great, and shows that you are a skilled player. be content /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
i have swung around like an elementary school girl on a tire swing.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting analogy, b/c I'm pretty sure you and your g/f were in elementary school like, what? 5 months ago?? Have you and your girl graduated to high school level 'parking' yet?

Yugoslav
Bwahahahahah!

[raptor517]

if you have hit 33% over 700 33s, you are my new hero, and should be able to dominate any level of sngs online. actually, you are quite possibly one of the best sng players in the world if this is true. holla

[raptor517]

i could say something really mean about yer amazing ability to not ever win, but ill keep to myself for now. /images/graemlins/wink.gif bwahahahahahahaa, what now. holla

[Degen]

lol its tru

Here is my total line for 33's

860 Total...26.64% ROI...39.77% ITM

So far in the 55's
77 Total...42.86% ITM...33.41% ROI


You all say this means nothing but my numbers in the 33's have held constant within a couple % points since 50 tourneys. My gains are consistent.


Degen

[Degen]

"He is an absolute monster in the early rounds."

Please break this down for me.

He plays a lot of hands early???


Degen

[Degen]

i have

its called a debate


i do not (did not) post to be given the right answer. i
post (ed) to provoke a dialogue, to gain viewpoints from others, to incorporate them into my thinking/game.

This is called 'critical thinking'


Degen

[Chaos81]

[ QUOTE ]
its called a debate

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not much of a debate when the only reason you can give for your side is, "i am doing it, so it must be possible".

[Degen]

very nice post Raptor...thank you


As for adjustments:

33 to 55

Less all-in blind steals?
More 3XBB raises late?
Less blind stealing late?
More limping w/ Suited connectors and small PP's?
More limping w/ AA and KK for trapping?
anything else????

What about this same list for the 55 to 109...what adjustments?


Thanks man.


Degen

[Degen]

oh that hehe

that wasn't the original topic


i guess i just wanted more convincing on that one...or i spose i should just shutit and wait for this big losing streak to hit...whenever that will be /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Degen

[raptor517]

the following are from the jump from the 55s to the 109s..

- as for less all in blind steals? no, there are probably more in the 109s. people start to learn how to push around their stacks.
- i very rarely do 3xBB late. i just dont like it. im one of those guys shoving his stack in there if i have 7x or less, sometimes even more.
- there is more blind stealing late. sometimes you can get free blinds all day from some people though, which is definitely +ev to make a note of and sit next to them.
- i dont ever limp with suited connectors. you can flop too many draws that you have to commit too many chips with that its not worth it. the small pairs are a must though. any time you flop a set you have a very good chance to double up with all the idiots that fall in love with one pair.
- ive actually started trapping less with AA and KK at the higher games, because people understand what a limp raise and everything is. utg i sometimes just make it huge like 4.5x the BB and play it out from there
- as for anything else? hmm.. i dont really think the differences are that great between the 109s and the 55s. the biggest difference i would guess is that there are a few more solid multitablers that play the 109s that can cause you problems, but after a week or so of hardcore play, you should know who all of them are.
- cant comment a lot from the 33s to the 55s, as i havent played nearly enough 33s for a significant sample.

holla

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
i could say something really mean about yer amazing ability to not ever win, but ill keep to myself for now

[/ QUOTE ]

Player theyugoslav
Games played 531
Wins 211 (39.74%)
Losses 320 (60.26%)
Average Buy-In $25.05
Players with better winning percentage 97003
Players with worse winning percentage 301850
$30 Table: 119 wins / 195 losses / 37.9% wins
$20 Table: 75 wins / 96 losses / 43.86% wins
$10 Table: 17 wins / 29 losses / 36.96% wins

[raptor517]

twas all in good fun scuba /images/graemlins/wink.gif just makin jokes, i know yugo is quite solid, he has just seen the crap side of variance for quite some time /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
twas all in good fun scuba just makin jokes,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yugo is the King ...of the $22s!

I didn't know his stats. Thought it would be fun to look him up.

[The Yugoslavian]

Umm...the last $11s I played were quite a while ago and since then I've played ~1000 STTs. So I have no idea what period of my play those numbers may even attempt to represent.

Do these numbers mean I'm good? I don't get it...they just look meaningless to me, /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

During the period those stats most likely were haphazardly taken from....my best results were in the 11s, 2nd best in the 33s, and worst in the 22s. Seriously....

Yugoslav

[raptor517]

its all rigged yugo. move in on the beach with me and we can 8 table step 5s and break even but get rakeback. bwahahahahahah

[XChamp]

[ QUOTE ]
"He is an absolute monster in the early rounds."

Please break this down for me.

He plays a lot of hands early???


Degen

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean that he is capable of winning a great deal of chips off other player's stupidity. Things like calling down bluffs with AK on the flop are not terribly uncommon for him when I have watched him play.

Here is an example. Last night I raised with TT in round 1 of a $50sng on party and was reraised all in by a player in the blinds. I was extremely suspicious of this raise, mostly because of the timing involved and because he didn't just reraise my 70 chip bet he moved all in. I called and he showed 88 and I doubled up.

Now I was very proud of this call. Normally I am folding TT and maybe JJ here, but my buddy does things like this with much greater frequency than I, and the majority of the time his read is correct.


Oh and I just got his stats.

Since early march: 1650 $50+5 sngs at 22.5% ROI

[Degen]

this is exactly what i use Prophecy for and it has paid for itself many times over already.


Degen

[Blarg]

I looked myself up and less than half my games were accounted for. It had my winning games out of proportion and showed me as a way bigger winner than I am. Nice to be listed as a "pro." I got quite a laugh out of it.

[beeyjay]

[ QUOTE ]
I would say my ROI in sets of 100 have gone like 45,35,25,30,35,30,40.

[/ QUOTE ]
this means you haven't hit a big downswing. I have -ROIs over 100 games constantly. Granted 100 is about 2 days of playing for me but still. If you claim to have never had an ROI less than 25 over 100 games you are either A. ridiculously lucky or B. (and much more likely) a huge kusty liar.

[Degen]

"If you claim to have never had an ROI less than 25 over 100 games"

I've logged 1k now and I've only had a LOSING 100 once...the minimum win over 100 in that time was $500, and the loss was only $170.

Though this possibly could be because I keep my stats like this:

1-100
101-200
201-300 etc.


And it doesn't figure each individual 100 w/in these.

Is there a way of doing this?


In addition to the 100 sets i noted, in 20 sets of 50 i've lost in 3 of them, one for -$30, one for -$90 and one for -$240.


Degen

[TheUsher]

My experiences: Recently jumped to the 109's and from my small sample size they are much harder than the 55's. If you're a normal SNG player that hardly ever plays N/L ring games then you'll be screwed and it'll kill your ROI. Forgetting the whole distribution of pros to maniacs that occurs on every level, I'll say that you have to learn how to properly value bet more, play your Level 1-3 blinds much better blind to blind, and really have to understand at least 90%+ of proper SNG concepts. That right there should put you at a positive ROI and it'll take more work from there to really make some money. Expanding on the early blind/blind play mentioned above you get to really play some poker early with the low blinds when hands frequently get folded to you 2. Expect frequent bluffs, learn how to play extremely weak hands, learn how to proper analyze bet sizes from opponents and how to make proper bets, etc. You'll also see lots of tough 215 drop-outs (or 215 regulars that drop down when games are tougher there) which will really put a hamper to your game if you don't know how to handle with real solid, aggressive opponents. Game selection becomes crucial at this level. Lots of other things but those came from the top of my head.

This thread had a lot of nice info that I'd like to reply to but it's really hard since it's already so long. I think it was Irie who said 20%+ ROI was hard in the 55's for 1000+ and I'll agree with it since lately the games have been getting tougher, but count me as one of those who have that winrate.

And Degen (?) saying that big buy-in drops are hard to do, count me in as one of the people that have been there lately since the ugly side of variance finally knocked me on my ass.

[TheUsher]

[ QUOTE ]
lol its tru

Here is my total line for 33's

860 Total...26.64% ROI...39.77% ITM

So far in the 55's
77 Total...42.86% ITM...33.41% ROI


You all say this means nothing but my numbers in the 33's have held constant within a couple % points since 50 tourneys. My gains are consistent.


Degen

[/ QUOTE ]

Stats may be consistent for now but you'll see the numbers swing wildly in a 100 SNG block in the 55's. I could probably show you a block of 75%~ ROI and one with -40% or so. I'm lucky enough to have experienced both ones which really shows me that you need to be able to grind them out with no emotional attachment to $$$.