AK missing value bets?

[foldem]

This hand is pretty standard, but I have a question regarding betting the river.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. CO posts a blind of $10.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (7.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks

I have a hard time putting UTG on a hand that I can beat when that jack hits the river. Honestly I "felt" like I was going to get check raised on the turn. I feel a weak ace would have led at the flop and AQ would have probably check raised it. Should I be betting this river, and how close is it. Fold to a check raise if I bet? Thanks.

[sam h]

Easy river bet. You give your opponent too much credit. Next time bet, get paid off, and check the hand history and see that he had KJo.

[Surfbullet]

This is a clear river value bet.

Surf

[mperich]

This is not even close, even if you have a3. BET THIS RIVER.

-Mike

[foldem]

Call a check raise then I take it?

I am just coming off a bad run of out draws, making me a little hesitant and had just sat down so I didnt have any reads yet. I was definitely giving this clown's UTG raise too much respect as he had a pathetic 79o. He would have paid me off too. I am still trying to work on missing value bets though. Someday I will get it right.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
Should I be betting this river, and how close is it. Fold to a check raise if I bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not close at all. No, you shouldn't fold to a check-raise.

No offense intended, but I'm surprised that you didn't figure this out before you made it to 10/20.

[PassiveCaller]

[ QUOTE ]
...
I am just coming off a bad run of out draws...

[/ QUOTE ]

This says everything you need to know about what was wrong and why you gave him too much credit.

[foldem]

I am just getting my feet wet at 10/20. However you don't think there is any merit to respecting an UTG raise without any reads?

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
No, you shouldn't fold to a check-raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

You guys all call down way too much. Folding to a checkraise here is pretty easy.

[Jeff W]

I am a suspicious man. How big would the pot have to be for you to call a raise on the river?

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
I am a suspicious man. How big would the pot have to be for you to call a raise on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't really easy to answer, since a bigger pot implies more action earlier on, but when I say it's an easy fold I mean that I think I'd be winning less than 1 in 50.

[Jeff W]

1 in 50? I think that you're overestimating the likelihood that an unknown has you beat here.

[stir]

What's to respect? You said it yourself; you have no read.

No offense either, but if you you have this kind of question you are going to cost yourself $$ at $10/20 unless you go on a positive variance run. I say that based on the fact I don't believe I'm ready for that level yet the answer on this posted hand was obvious.

Respectfully suggest you may stay at a lower level and refine your game.