river kills my hand

[mr pink]

villain's stats are 25/4/1 over 500+ hands, seems reasonable from what i've seen.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (6.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, Hero ????

comments on other streets appreciated but i think they're pretty standard. mainly interested in what to do on the river though.

[Pokey]

What's villain's WSD%? If it's low, bet the river. If it's high, check and lose.

[mr pink]

whats a low percentage for going to showdown? i have no clue.

[Pokey]

Good question....Under 30? Clearly, this is more of a "how does it feel" than anything rule-based.

The tighter the villain, the more often a bet here wins.
The more aggressive the villain, the more often a bet here wins.

With no read at all, you either flip a coin or go with your gut, but I don't think anybody would fault you for betting it or checking it.

[private joker]

On this board, I don't think he's calling the turn planning on folding the river. Check and lose. Maybe he missed a heart draw, but that's the only hand I can think of that's calling the turn and folding the river. Getting counterfeited stinks.

That said, your bluff only has to work once in 9 tries to break even, and once in 8 or so to make a profit.

[Jack Bauer]

hes tight enough that he might fold AQ. the pot is big so youre getting good odds on your bluff. he doesnt have AA, probably doesnt have KK, KQ, or JJ, so its mainly between AQ, QQ, TT, AJ, and maybe some worse pairs.

[Klepton]

check, ace high is not folding, and you beat any other PP

i know it sucks, but meh

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
That said, your bluff only has to work once in 9 tries to break even, and once in 8 or so to make a profit

[/ QUOTE ]

i realized this right after i checked it through.