PDA

View Full Version : Monster pot question.....

mtdoak
04-13-2005, 07:24 PM
I was just thinking about this from a post someone else wrote. How many people, on the turn, need to be in the pot for capping to +EV on the turn when you have a huge draw.

For example:

You have A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif

Flop comes A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The pot gets bet, you raise, you get 6 callers.

Turn is a 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. You bet and a tight passive player raises(i.e. he probably has the flush), what in the minimum # of callers needed to be rasing/capping this here. You have 10 outs to the best hand, so your going to win 21.7% of the time. 5 callers? 6 callers? Just curious.
Nick C
04-13-2005, 07:37 PM
Four callers is enough if you know you don't have the best hand and you know you have ten outs.

Unfortunately, you're not going to know if you'll get four callers. And if you do get four callers, you may not have as many outs as it appears.

On the other hand, it's also rare for you to know that you're definitely behind, with a hand as strong as top set.

It's unusual to have enough outs (and enough players still in) to pump a draw on the turn, but it does happen on occasion. Also, the chances that you're ahead plus the outs you have if you're behind can make a raise a good play, sometimes, even when you suspect that you are behind.
PokerBob
04-13-2005, 07:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
I was just thinking about this from a post someone else wrote. How many people, on the turn, need to be in the pot for capping to +EV on the turn when you have a huge draw.

For example:

You have A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif

Flop comes A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

The pot gets bet, you raise, you get 6 callers.

Turn is a 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. You bet and a tight passive player raises(i.e. he probably has the flush), what in the minimum # of callers needed to be rasing/capping this here. You have 10 outs to the best hand, so your going to win 21.7% of the time. 5 callers? 6 callers? Just curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

10/46 is about about 21%. I say you need at least 4 opponents.