AJo: Folding good money after bad? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

SamIAm

04-13-2005, 06:21 PM

MP3 is a LP-P moron. SB is LA-A and MP2 is a smart sLA-A.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: SamIAm is UTG+1 with Jh, As.
1 fold, SamIAm raises, 1 fold, MP2 3-bets, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, SamIAm calls.

Flop: (13 SB) Th, 2s, Qc (4 players)
SB bets, SamIAm raises, MP2 3-bets, MP3 calls $4.25 (All-In), SB caps, SamIAm calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (13.56 BB) 3c (4 players, 1 all-in)
SB bets, SamIAm folds, ...

The pot's big and I have an overcard and a gutshot straight. That means I'm not gonna fold, so I should raise to try to clear my ace draw. I think it's a good raise against a maniac.
I don't like being 3-bet, and the cap should have terrified me. I think I should have folded to the cap, because suddenly my ace outs seem less likely and the king outs aren't strong enough.

The problem was, I realized this on the turn, and folded there. I now wonder if I should have called THIS bet, just on the K draw. Now raising doesn't clear any outs I value, so maybe call? I don't want to see another raise, and definitely not a 3-bet, but is the draw worth it?
-Sam

GetThere1Time

04-13-2005, 06:36 PM

What are MP2s possible holdings? If he has QQ, AA,TT, or AQ, all you have is a gut shot. Seems like your best case scenario for you is that he has KK and that just gives you 5 outs. He folds JJ and any pair lower to your raise but with the gutshot and ace you give yourself I wouldn't mind having him in with those hands. Laggy SB's also gonna put in another bet with anything resembling a hand so you get put in the grinder. In this case, I personally like calling the sb's flop bet and folding to the 2 more bets coming back to you. That's just me though. I'm new I could be wrong /images/graemlins/grin.gif

mtdoak

04-13-2005, 07:13 PM

Getting 13-1+ Implied odds this a clear call, even with only 4 outs. (you only need 11.5 to 1 to call) I HIGHLY doubt there are any club draws out there, so you have 4 clean outs. I'm check calling an A, check folding everything else. Now, if you call and its raised and reraised, you have an interesting dilemma. You'll be getting 19-2, but with implied odds, you should be able to make at least 2 more BB from both players on the river which would mean, IMHO, its still a good call.

shant

04-13-2005, 07:19 PM

Why do you remove the formatting from what the converter does? It's hard to read the hands this way, and it seems you used the converter so why turn off all the nice colors and stuff? I'm only asking because this is the second hand today where I've seen it in this wierd non-format way.

hizo1

04-13-2005, 08:15 PM

Here's my take:

AJo is not strong enough to raise with in early position.
On the flop and turn you can't give yourself credit for all 4 K and 3 A outs... personally I would have given myself at most 1 A out and 2 K outs for 3 outs... Getting 12 to 1 + implied odds on the flop after the cap makes this a marginal but still good call.

On the turn this is a good fold. Basically a blank landed, so you know it'll probably get raised if not 3 bet/capped behind you. that means you know you'll have to pay 2BBs for 19BBs (9.5-1), 3BBs for 22BBs (7-1), or 4BBs for 25BBs(6-1). assuming we only have around 3 and generously 4 outs, I would fold the turn.

nice hand.

damaniac

04-13-2005, 08:35 PM

I don't know about not raising AJo in EP. I don't think limping or raising is a mistake at these low-limit tables. They're have been many debates without much in the way of conclusions about the merits of that (and KQo) in EP. In my extremely limited sample, I run far better raising, but I probably also just call in less profitable circumstances, so take it worth a grain of salt. I prefer raising because it gives me the initiative, keeps the pot short-handed, and either induces hands with good implied odds on me (suited connectors, small pairs) to fold or play in unprofitable situations. In any event, that can't be a mistake.

adamstewart

04-13-2005, 08:57 PM

Hector,

Even though SSH recommends otherwise, a number of the better players here are raising AJo and KQo from EP (even UTG).

I never used to do this either, but started a while back at the recommendation of others.

All in all, the difference between raising and limping with these hands is probably very small. But I feel raising has the following strong advantages:

(i) These hands do not play well multi-way, so you want to limit the field of callers preflop.
(ii) For the low stakes games in which we play, we are often being called lesser hands anyway... so we profit by their mistakes (Fundamental Theory of Poker).
(iii) Being a preflop aggressor will often allow us to take small pots down uncontested on the flop.

Here's the one I really like:

(iv) Most players who raise AJo and KQo as LAG's (just as you have implied in your initial response /images/graemlins/wink.gif), so in the broader scope of a game, we're more likely to get action on our really strong hands.

Adam

adamstewart

04-13-2005, 09:11 PM

Preflop is standard.

As for the flop, WHY THE HELL ARE YOU RAISING??? You're certainly not doing so for value. So what types of hands are you trying to push out?

More than likely you're drawing to a 4-outer gutshot.

When the action is initally to you think about the following:

MP2 is a "sLA-A", so he's ALMOST CERTAINLY going to raise this flop (considering he 3-bet preflop).

The pot is going to be at least 15-16 sb's after the flop action, but you're going to have to put in *at least* TWO bets. In other words, you're going to get around 8:1 money for your 10:1 gutshot. Considering implied odds, this may be +EV, but only marginally so.

Don't forget that SB is also "LA-A," so that increases the chances that he may re-raise when the action comes back to him. This would force you to pay more money. If you're putting in THREE bets on this flop, that's not good. It pushes your calls into -EV.

Also, we haven't considered the chances that you draw to a split pot by the river, or that you actually lose to a flush or a boat. These possibilities are very small, but nevertheless, they push your effective odds above 10.5:1. (An arguement could be made, however, that these chances are offset by the times we pair an ace for a winning hand. But then again, hitting an ace could very well be reverse implied odds).

For the above reasons, I'm going to say something that some may disagree with:

Fold the flop.

At best this is a marginally +EV call on the flop, but more than likely it'll end up being very -EV.

(Note: for similar reasons your fold on the turn was probably correct).

Just my thoughts...

Adam

SamIAm

04-14-2005, 12:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It's hard to read the hands this wierd non-format way.

[/ QUOTE ]"This weird non-format way" is called "Plain-text". I formatted the hand histories for emailing to a friend, since I can't email BBC code. Sorry the colors are gone.
-Sam

SamIAm

04-14-2005, 01:37 AM

First, let me say you made a good post, and brought up lots of good ideas. I'm not even sure what the correct answer is; I just wanted to comment on some of your points.

[ QUOTE ]
WHY THE HELL ARE YOU RAISING???

[/ QUOTE ]Because I likely have 3 outs to the ace. I'm not at ALL sure those are dead, and if they still give me the best hand on the turn, I'll be really glad I thinned the field. What hands am I pushing out? Any hand that has a draw to beat top-pair after the turn. Ya know, like ... almost any hand. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 is a "sLA-A", so he's ALMOST CERTAINLY going to raise this flop

[/ QUOTE ]I think this is a stretch. I'd write the "ALMOST" in all caps, but not the "CERTAINLY". He's listed by PokerTracker as aggressive postflop, but that's not because he's a maniac. Heck, you get a higher AF by betting, but also by FOLDING. And ya know what makes him less likely to raise the flop? Raising in front of him. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Also, we haven't considered the chances that you draw to a split pot by the river, or that you actually lose to a flush or a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]The flush and boat seem much more likely than splitting the pot. Even still, I think implied odds more than make-up for the redraws.

[ QUOTE ]
Fold the flop

[/ QUOTE ]I assume you mean fold to the initial bet. That seems really tight. Your very pessimistic outlook seems close? (Ace outs are dead. I'll face a raise behind me. I could get redrawn. It's still marginally +EV?) If you're wrong on a few of those, that seems to make it easy to play the hand.

-Sam

jclin

04-14-2005, 01:47 AM

Calling the cap on flop potoddswise is fine.

But you got to think that MP2 will raise turn, and it could get capped. You should definitely look at it as a very possible 25.56:4 odds (Assuming A is no good). I don't think you are +EV even if the A counts as some outs. Being sandwiched b/t bettors sucks.

RollingRockMike

04-14-2005, 02:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
MP3 is a LP-P moron. SB is LA-A and MP2 is a smart sLA-A.
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: SamIAm is UTG+1 with Jh, As.
1 fold, SamIAm raises, 1 fold, MP2 3-bets, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, SamIAm calls.

Flop: (13 SB) Th, 2s, Qc (4 players)
SB bets, SamIAm raises, MP2 3-bets, MP3 calls $4.25 (All-In), SB caps, SamIAm calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (13.56 BB) 3c (4 players, 1 all-in)
SB bets, SamIAm folds, ...

The pot's big and I have an overcard and a gutshot straight. That means I'm not gonna fold, so I should raise to try to clear my ace draw. I think it's a good raise against a maniac.
I don't like being 3-bet, and the cap should have terrified me. I think I should have folded to the cap, because suddenly my ace outs seem less likely and the king outs aren't strong enough.

The problem was, I realized this on the turn, and folded there. I now wonder if I should have called THIS bet, just on the K draw. Now raising doesn't clear any outs I value, so maybe call? I don't want to see another raise, and definitely not a 3-bet, but is the draw worth it?
-Sam

[/ QUOTE ]
You do not call a capped flop and fold to one bet on the turn. That's atrocious.

I would call this flop and fold to a 3-bet. The reasoning is that you probably don't have a full 4 outs, and even if you do there are going to be redraws against you. Raising to get a stronger ace to fold is misapplied here; basically you're banking on the fact that MP2 has AK and will toss it here, neither of which are likely enough to raise.

Mike

brettbrettr

04-14-2005, 08:18 AM

(I'm doing this thing where I don't read replies before posting...)

Your line: Fold the flop when its 2 back to you.

My line: I'm stuck between calling the flop and seeing what develops behind me or folding to that one little bet by SB. Tough spot though.

(now I'll read the replies....)

adamstewart

04-14-2005, 08:22 AM

First off.... realize that raising the flop doesn't force many draws into making a mistake. Even with your raise, those behind you are facing at least 8:1 money.

Again, think about what types of hands you're trying to push out here. Specifically, what are they??

[ QUOTE ]
Heck, you get a higher AF by betting, but also by FOLDING. And ya know what makes him less likely to raise the flop? Raising in front of him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think this is true.

Adam

Donk

04-14-2005, 08:56 AM

adamstewart

04-14-2005, 08:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop sucks. Folding the turn sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are about one one thing; wrong about the other.

Adam

Donk

04-14-2005, 09:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop sucks. Folding the turn sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are about one one thing; wrong about the other.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP2 is getting 8:1 if he calls hero's flop raise. Can he fold AQ? no. AK? no. AJ? QQ? no. JJ? no. TT no. 99-77? yes. So, you are putiing MP3 on this small range of hands? If so, he should fold for 1-bet.

On the turn, hero easily has odds to draw to his gutshot, so where am I wrong?

adamstewart

04-14-2005, 09:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop sucks. Folding the turn sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are about one one thing; wrong about the other.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP2 is getting 8:1 if he calls hero's flop raise. Can he fold AQ? no. AK? no. AJ? QQ? no. JJ? no. TT no. 99-77? yes. So, you are putiing MP3 on this small range of hands? If so, he should fold for 1-bet.

On the turn, hero easily has odds to draw to his gutshot, so where am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol... i purposely didn't say which one you were wrong about. I guess you haven't read this entire thread. Either that, or you're not paying attention...

Adam

Donk

04-14-2005, 09:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop sucks. Folding the turn sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are about one one thing; wrong about the other.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP2 is getting 8:1 if he calls hero's flop raise. Can he fold AQ? no. AK? no. AJ? QQ? no. JJ? no. TT no. 99-77? yes. So, you are putiing MP3 on this small range of hands? If so, he should fold for 1-bet.

On the turn, hero easily has odds to draw to his gutshot, so where am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol... i purposely didn't say which one you were wrong about. I guess you haven't read this entire thread. Either that, or you're not paying attention...

Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

My name is Donk for a reason. he has odds to call the turn because it is actually an 8, not a 3.

adamstewart

04-14-2005, 10:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop sucks. Folding the turn sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are about one one thing; wrong about the other.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP2 is getting 8:1 if he calls hero's flop raise. Can he fold AQ? no. AK? no. AJ? QQ? no. JJ? no. TT no. 99-77? yes. So, you are putiing MP3 on this small range of hands? If so, he should fold for 1-bet.

On the turn, hero easily has odds to draw to his gutshot, so where am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol... i purposely didn't say which one you were wrong about. I guess you haven't read this entire thread. Either that, or you're not paying attention...

Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

My name is Donk for a reason. he has odds to call the turn because it is actually an 8, not a 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've lost me...

Anyway, what do you think MP2 will do behind you after you call?

Adam

Donk

04-14-2005, 10:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raising the flop sucks. Folding the turn sucks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are about one one thing; wrong about the other.

[/ QUOTE ]

MP2 is getting 8:1 if he calls hero's flop raise. Can he fold AQ? no. AK? no. AJ? QQ? no. JJ? no. TT no. 99-77? yes. So, you are putiing MP3 on this small range of hands? If so, he should fold for 1-bet.

On the turn, hero easily has odds to draw to his gutshot, so where am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol... i purposely didn't say which one you were wrong about. I guess you haven't read this entire thread. Either that, or you're not paying attention...

Adam

[/ QUOTE ]

My name is Donk for a reason. he has odds to call the turn because it is actually an 8, not a 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

You've lost me...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to be funny, as I clearly misread the board and am now trying to justify my "Hero clearly has odds to draw to the gutshot on the turn" comment.