I decide to bet Q-high

[PokerBob]

donks all around.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

Turn: (2.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets......</font> yes?????

[mtdoak]

You've got alot of redraws. I try to pick up small pots this way after being checked around if i pick up a draw.

[SeaEagle]

I almost always make this bet. But it always seems like somebody picked up a set of 5s and pops me so I have to pay an extra bet to see the 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif hit the river.

Nonetheless, I continue to believe it's the right thing to do.

[meep_42]

Nice semi-bluff.

What's your plan on a blank river (2:spade):
If only CO calls?
If only SB calls and checks to you?

I'm assuming you're check/folding UI against more than one opponent, but is there any value in a river bluff here?

-d

[axioma]

what percentage of the time do you expect to take this down on the turn, i.e. 4 folds behind you?

this is a question you must have some approximation of in order to make that bet.

[SmileyEH]

I would probably bet and check here with something like a 20%/80% frequency. Doesn't make much of a difference really.

-SmileyEH

[tytygoodnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice semi-bluff.

What's your plan on a blank river (2:spade):
If only CO calls?
If only SB calls and checks to you?

I'm assuming you're check/folding UI against more than one opponent, but is there any value in a river bluff here?

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Semibluffing five people?

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming you're check/folding UI against more than one opponent, but is there any value in a river bluff here?



[/ QUOTE ]

I am. Agaisnt these donks, I think a bluff is useless.

[SmileyEH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming you're check/folding UI against more than one opponent, but is there any value in a river bluff here?



[/ QUOTE ]

I am. Agaisnt these donks, I think a bluff is useless.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think a bluff is useless you shouldn't bet the turn.

-SmileyEH

[Bob T.]

SB checks, Hero bets...... yes?????


of course. If you happen to be behind, you only have somewhere between 13 and 16 outs, and you will win this pot a fair percentage of the time with the turn bet.

[axioma]

its 4 people, still, enough to make a semibluff questionable.

if 0,2,3, or 4 call your bet you are ok, if 1 calls you are not.

unfortunately i think you end up with precisely 1 caller too often to make betting the optimal choice here. its close though, you cant go too wrong either way.

reads would be very useful here.

[axioma]

[ QUOTE ]
and you will win this pot a fair percentage of the time with the turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

at 3-6, with 4 donks to act after you, i dissagree.

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming you're check/folding UI against more than one opponent, but is there any value in a river bluff here?



[/ QUOTE ]

I am. Agaisnt these donks, I think a bluff is useless.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think a bluff is useless you shouldn't bet the turn.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]
We're talking semi-bluff though, not a stone cold.

If your opponents are generally donks, I think you'll get at least 2 callers, hence I like the bet.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming you're check/folding UI against more than one opponent, but is there any value in a river bluff here?



[/ QUOTE ]

I am. Agaisnt these donks, I think a bluff is useless.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think a bluff is useless you shouldn't bet the turn.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm refering to the river. IF they all the turn, they're calling the river.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
IF they all the turn, they're calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is correct. If you do think you can semi-bluff 4 of these donks on the turn, then trying to bluff 1 of them on the river should be an option.

[axioma]

again: what percentage of the time do you expect to take it down on the turn?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
IF they all the turn, they're calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is correct. If you do think you can semi-bluff 4 of these donks on the turn, then trying to bluff 1 of them on the river should be an option.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you almost have to bet the river if you get just one caller on the turn.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
again: what percentage of the time do you expect to take it down on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
Assume you'll get 2 callers (on average). You have ~14 outs and thereby 30% equity. By betting you'll on average lose:
2*0.3 - 0.70*1= -0.1BB

The opponents then need to fold only 0.1/2.5= 4% of the time to make it profitable.

Now this calculation is too simplyfied. You might get raised. Get more callers or less, but on average 2 is not a too bad estimation. You also might bluff the river succesfully. I just wanted to demonstrate with the calculation that you don't to win this pot an awfull lot at the turn to make a bet profitable.

[axioma]

yes, saddly that is too simplified. but i do get your point and agree that the magic number does not need to be particularly large.

like i said above, you are quite happy with 2 callers. the problem is that you will end up with 1 caller too frequently IMO.

[habsfanca11]

I hate to even say this ... bet? - Yes and reasses on the river. River - depends on reads (that's the part I hate to say). What I mean is (let's assume a river blank for you) do you bluff the river again? - it's read dependant. How Donkish? I'm not betting because I keep running into K, little suited who wouldn't lead out and bet because they were worried about their kicker and call all the way down, or some suited connector that got a small piece or really anything. The hands I see people calling down with are just unbelievable and I don't think this makes a river bluff profitable - but then again that depends on your reads. FWIW.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
like i said above, you are quite happy with 2 callers. the problem is that you will end up with 1 caller too frequently IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
Then assume you'll end up with 1 caller every time except for the times you'll buy the pot. Turn EV for 1 caller:
1*0.3 - 1*0.7= -0.4

Then they all would need to fold 16% of the time. That's not a large number and still the 2nd worst scenario.

Assume you'll get raised and end up HU every time except for when your semi-bluff succeeds:
2*0.3 - 2*0.7= -0.8

You still only need to win right away 1/3 of the time and that's the very worst case scenario and won't happen too often.

My point is betting should be pretty easy.

[DMBFan23]

betting rocks.

1) we're going to call a bet anyway.
2) GIVEN 1), betting is better than check calling because


a) we might pick up the pot now.
2) we might pick up the pot on the river
Third) we'd like any 9, any better Q, or TJ to fold. that's not a ton of hands, and in this small pot it's not costing us a lot of EV (if any), but like I said, we're calling a bet anyway.

[axioma]

[ QUOTE ]
1) we're going to call a bet anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

are you calling when the CO bets and the SB folds?

[GetThere1Time]

I agree with DMB partially. I don't see what a donk would call with on the turn that they'd fold for one bet on the river but clearing up better Qs other 9s is good especially when you're calling a bet anyway. The way you describe these guys the only hand they're folding to a river bluff is A9, A6, or Ax /images/graemlins/heart.gif and even then you might get called. So, I still don't understand why anyone's saying to bet the river. Any enlightenment would be appreciated.

[DMBFan23]

yeah, with 13 outs to a sure winner plus the fact that a pair will often be good.

I estimate the chance of a checkraise by the MP's here at about 0%

[mtdoak]

Around 25%, depending on the table. I usually try and avoid it if theres 2 or more calling station at the table. Its a semibluff. I would prefer to do this from late position, but he has 13 outs to a very strong hand (and an overcard)

[uw_madtown]

[ QUOTE ]
I almost always make this bet. But it always seems like somebody picked up a set of 5s and pops me so I have to pay an extra bet to see the 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif hit the river.

Nonetheless, I continue to believe it's the right thing to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
IF they all the turn, they're calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is correct. If you do think you can semi-bluff 4 of these donks on the turn, then trying to bluff 1 of them on the river should be an option.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you almost have to bet the river if you get just one caller on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and yes.

Good turn bet, I like it a lot and would DEFINITELY be betting here myself. It seems like I usually end up hating myself, but I think it's the right move. And if only one calls, you absolutely have to bet a rag river.