Strange situation

[Tilt]

Shorthanded tourney (5 max) $10+1

Blinds 150-300

Me in SB with t3000
Villain in BB with t3200
Third guy, disconnected and being checkfolded, t1300

Villain is kind of a donkey, incredibly loose. I don't think 3rd guy is coming back. So were basically heads up, payout structure though is 1st and 2nd only, split 15-35.

I am dealt AKs. Whats your move?

I pushed and was called by 88.

[yoadrians]

A couple things:

1) This is one of those times that - even though you are RIGHT at 10XBB - I don't think a push is warranted. And here's why: You can raise 3XBB. If you're called, you can see a flop. And if you miss the flop, you can perhaps let it go, still WAY ahead of the guy you think isn't coming back. If BB pushes over you, you have a decision to make about whether you want a coinflip, or whether you want to 'fold' and blind the 3rd person off...

2) And speaking of the 3rd person who you don't 'think' is coming back, hey, maybe he's not. But you wouldn't BELIEVE how many times I've seen people play the 'sitting out' trick just to see if they can get into the money that way. They'll sit there and watch and see if two/three big stacks will knock one out, and then, PRESTO, they're back and in the money. And you/other person did all the work for them. Other times, they really are just disconnected and they don't come back. But I know people who have admitted to me they've done that when they're short-stacked. They'll be 'sitting out' and waiting ... and when they magically 'popped' back into the hand, it's because they see a premium hand and want to play it. Otherwise, they just sit and wait for people to do the work for them.

For what it's worth, short-handed and in this situation, I'd go with a 3XBB raise and either pick up blinds or see a flop. If BB comes over the top of me, maybe I'll gamble, and maybe I won't.

You just really need to take into consideration that poker is about making money, and, if you're read is right, you WILL make the money here by biding your time and waiting for 'real' heads-up play. Think of it as 'SUPER TIGHT BUBBLE PLAY' in a Satellite. You have way more to lose in this exact situation than you do to gain by open-pushing. Wait to make the money, and then kick Villain's butt.

And, if that third person pops back in when he gets down to 300 or 400, you'll have more than enough bullets to put the dog down for good.

Interested in hearing what others think - I imagine this hand presents an ethical dilemma, as well.

[Tilt]

Well, I pushed because I knew Villain would call a smaller raise - it took a push with this guy to get a fold, period. And I knew that if I raised it up and invested like 25% of my stack in the hand and missed the flop, he was going to shove back at me with any two cards, leaving me in a very uncomfortable position with a missed AK.

I had not pushed much yet, but with this guy I thought I might get called with A9-AQ, even KQ or KJ. He had been that way with everyone else.

I think the third guy was not hiding in the weeds. He was bleeding away by this pointat an alarming rate.

[yoadrians]

I understand your logic here. Most def. But I do think that looking at this situation as a 'Satellite Bubble' situation isn't a horrible way to look at it, either. IMHO, your risk here is far greater than the reward, with, as you say, "...the third guy was not hiding in the weeds. He was bleeding away by this pointat an alarming rate."

Just another way to look at it, I guess. Still very interested in seeing how others respond.

Take care.

[sofere]

Well raising depends on read of BB. Some will reraise-push a lot. Also, if I were to raise, I wouldn't raise a full 3xbb...2.5xbb will have the same effect (minraising isn't always bad either at these blinds).

This is very very read dependant on BB. If you complete, what would he do? If you raise, would he normally call or reraise? How was he handling the "sitting out guy"? Was he pushing every time he was on the button, or would the sit out guy feed you his SB every time?