Losing $ with AKo

[JerseyDrake]

Maybe it is just a case of variance with my PT DB still being on the small side, but I find that I am losing money overall with AKo and it is not just from EP/MP.

I have a feeling I am either playing them to aggresively or starting out agressive then become a calling station. The biggest issue is when a fairly ragged flop comes and I bet out.

Below are two typical examples. If anyone has any general tips on playing AKo as overcards from EP/MP that would be good too.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (14 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 18 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
SB has 2d 2h (three of a kind, twos).
BB has 9c 9h (three of a kind, nines).
Outcome: BB wins 18 BB. </font>


Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Button folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (12.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 14.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG has Ah Ts (one pair, tens).
MP2 has Qs Qh (one pair, queens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 14.75 BB. </font>

[aK13]

If you miss on the flop, then you typically have to play AKo as a drawing hand as 6 or less outs (excluding backdoor draws).

I like the raise on the flop in the 1st hand, you're knocking out players by having them face 2 bets cold and possibly buying outs from people who have you reverse dominated.

In both hands, you seem to have gotten trapped between a bettor and raiser, which sucks balls. I don't think there's anything particularly wrong with the way you've played given the situations.

Also, in EP against only 3 or so players, you should typically bet out if you know you're going to call someone else's bet. Against more, though, you should check and re-evaluate given the action behind you to see whether you should continue.

EDIT: In hand 1, letting go on the turn is probably better than calling the bet, although raising the flop and folding to a bet on the turn seems weak, like you might have been bluffing at the pot.

[numeri]

Hand 1: I can see raising the flop to clear up some outs and possibly buy the button and get a free card on the turn. Once you're led into on the turn, you don't have the odds to continue. Remember to discount your overcard outs to roughly 1.5 each. (You could be reverse dominated by A8, A3, or even A2.)

Hand 2: This is similar, but you have the pre-flop aggressor yet to act. This adds to the probability that you may be dominated by AA or KK. (Not that we should fear AA or KK every time, but the possibility increases.) You might be better of folding after UTG bets into you. Since you called, you pretty much have to call the turn with your GSD.

[MrWookie47]

That's a good analysis, and I second your input.

What sort of sample size are you talking about? If the average joe at Poker Room can finish pretty strongly in the black with AKo, I think you'd have to be consistently be making terrible mistakes with AKo to have a long term negative win rate. I mean, I'm not even sure if you would be a long term loser with AKo if you blindly bet and raised at every opportunity with it. I wouldn't be overly concerned at this point.

[cmwck]

Flop: I like it. The pot is too big to fold, so raising improves your winning chances if you get your ace or king.
Turn: I don't like it. Your ace is now worth less, as it will put four to a straight on board. Id value the overcards as 3 outs now, so you don't have the correct odds to draw.

[JerseyDrake]

I am at about 6500 hands with a total of 65 AKo hands.

I don't feel that I am making any huge mistakes but just wanted to make sure my basic ideas for playing this is correct. I am afraid that I am thinking "AK is a big +EV hand and play to strong based on that thought alone."

Another reason for concern is that my win rate with this holding is not any better in LP than EP.

[grjr]

I was losing money with AKo (and AKs for that matter) for quite a while. I either would miss the flop or when I hit an A or K someone would hit two pair. If I hit two pair or trips someone would river a straight or flush (these are the expensive hands).

Then all of a sudden it turned around and now I'm making .33 BB/hand. Not great (and nowhere near that powerhouse QJo) but at least it's a profit.

Hang in there, don't call the turn without the odds if you miss, and things will turn around for you also.

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
I can see raising the flop to clear up some outs

[/ QUOTE ]

My experience is people learn about this and then think it will always work. You later say we could be reverse dominated by hands down to A2. If A2 won't fold the flop then what outs are we cleaning up exactly?

I don't hate raising but I think the play it to call on the flop and plan to fold if its raised behind. The fact that you could already be drawing dead has to enter your mind at some point.

Hand 2 is the easiest flop fold ever.

AK is easy to play at micros, make TPTK and go to town. Don't spew when it comes ugly.

-DeathDonkey

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
I am at about 6500 hands with a total of 65 AKo hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's a super small sample size. 6500 can certainly help you get an idea about your VPIP and PFR stats, and a very general idea of your winrate, but not really any info about one hand. One problem I found was calling down with OC thinking I had 6 outs. This is not usually the case - discount those outs and you'll be better off.

Remember, you raise PF because of your equity. That changes quite a bit on the flop, so play accordingly.

[ QUOTE ]
Another reason for concern is that my win rate with this holding is not any better in LP than EP.

[/ QUOTE ]
You've played 65 AKo, so about 30 in EP and 20 in LP. Even a smaller sample size! One thing you may be doing is continuing to bet thinking you might get everyone to fold. This rarely happens and can lead to some major spewing if you continue to bet unimproved on later streets.

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
so raising improves your winning chances if you get your ace or king.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this mean? I don't agree, I don't know what you're trying to say here but what you actually said is not true.

-DeathDonkey

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can see raising the flop to clear up some outs

[/ QUOTE ]

My experience is people learn about this and then think it will always work. You later say we could be reverse dominated by hands down to A2. If A2 won't fold the flop then what outs are we cleaning up exactly?


[/ QUOTE ]
That's a good point. But we don't completely discount the A/K outs because our raise only sometimes drives A2 or A3 out.

At least that's my understanding. Oh, and even if we aren't dominated, the raise might also buy the button and a free card on the turn.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so raising improves your winning chances if you get your ace or king.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this mean? I don't agree, I don't know what you're trying to say here but what you actually said is not true.


[/ QUOTE ]
Sure it is. It's the reverse domination discussion. If our raise drives out A2 or A3, (which it won't always but could) spiking an A wins the pot when it wouldn't have otherwise.

[JerseyDrake]

[ QUOTE ]
One problem I found was calling down with OC thinking I had 6 outs. This is not usually the case - discount those outs and you'll be better off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I know from this forum and SSH that overcards shout be counted at about 1.5 outs each, I think that sometime when I get a "great" hand like AK I "forget" this.

[ QUOTE ]
One thing you may be doing is continuing to bet thinking you might get everyone to fold. This rarely happens and can lead to some major spewing if you continue to bet unimproved on later streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I do it for this reason. I think maybe part of my problem may be the reverse-monsters under the bed thing where I figure at least some of the players are drawing to worse overcards than mine. Which now that I say this is related to the reason you stated.

I will make a point to keep al this in mind next time I get AKo.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
Although I know from this forum and SSH that overcards shout be counted at about 1.5 outs each, I think that sometime when I get a "great" hand like AK I "forget" this.

[/ QUOTE ]
Trust me - I feel your pain! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I also used to get pretty attached to hand like JJ-99 with overcards on the flop and tons of action. I'd stay in to the river thinking, "Well, they could be bluffing."

It sounds like you're on the right track. Overcards are super tricky to play, and I still struggle with them.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can see raising the flop to clear up some outs

[/ QUOTE ]

My experience is people learn about this and then think it will always work. You later say we could be reverse dominated by hands down to A2. If A2 won't fold the flop then what outs are we cleaning up exactly?

I don't hate raising but I think the play it to call on the flop and plan to fold if its raised behind. The fact that you could already be drawing dead has to enter your mind at some point.

Hand 2 is the easiest flop fold ever.

AK is easy to play at micros, make TPTK and go to town. Don't spew when it comes ugly.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you concluding that somebody betting into a board of 382 rainbow after we raise means theres a good chance we're drawing dead? Edit: oh, or do you mean after we call the bet and it's raised behind us?

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so raising improves your winning chances if you get your ace or king.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does this mean? I don't agree, I don't know what you're trying to say here but what you actually said is not true.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you elaborate, please? So raising actually does not increasing our winning chances if an ace or king comes?

[jrz1972]

Hand 1: Fold the turn.

Hand 2: Fold the flop. Given that you called the flop, you pretty much have to call one more on the turn now that you picked up a gutshot.

These two hands nicely illustrate why you are losing with AK. You are overplaying overcards. Notice that in neither hand do you have any good backdoor draw. (I know you have the two-gap bd straight in hand 2, but that's pathetic). If all you have is overcards with no backdoor draws, you need to slow things down.

Also, one strength of AK is that you'll sometimes be ahead even when you miss the flop. That's why its often correct to bet the flop with overcards. In these hands, you were the PF agressor and then immediately faced someone betting into you post-flop, strongly suggesting that you are NOT ahead. That's another reason to slow down.

The first hand cost you 2 BB (maybe 2.5; the flop raise is debatable) that you didn't have to lose. The second hand cost you 2 BB. You can't spew like this every time you flop overcards.

[ChoicestHops]

You're staying in the hand when someone raises you on both the flop and turn, and your hoping to spike a one pair.

[DeathDonkey]

I'm saying I don't understand how he can claim that raising the flop increases your chances of winning should you make a pair on the turn. Someone suggests he is making the "clean up outs" argument which may be true, but its really not clear to me. I think I've already addressed why the "clean up outs" argument is overrated.

About the drawing dead thing, I don't mean to suggest that when someone bets into you on that board you are drawing dead, I simply mean to suggest that if you think you have 6 clean outs some of the time, you are also drawing dead some of the time. This means to me that you have to approximate somewhere in the middle and don't have nearly as good of odds to chase as you first think.

-DeathDonkey

[SteveL91]

I'm not sure there's a definitive answer to the flop on Hand 1, but I think it's either raise or fold. I just don't see the value in calling with so many people left to act. I just think the action has given you the perfect chance to face the entire field with the prospect of calling two bets on that rather abysmal board. If the flop came down 59Jr or something, then I don't think I'd be raising just because I think it's a lot more likely that you'll have people cold-calling behind you. I think the problem with calling is it makes it entire too easy for the rest of the field, and grossly over-complicates the turn and river play.

Also, in my experience, you're not going to run into enough observant opponents that you really need to worry about raising the flop and folding the turn. Even if someone were to try taking a shot at you, the times where you'd actually be folding the turn will, I think, pale in comparison to the times you'll have a hand to punish the raiser with a 3-bet.

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]
If you miss on the flop, then you typically have to play AKo as a drawing hand as 6 or less outs (excluding backdoor draws).

[/ QUOTE ]
Not necessarily. The more oppoents you have the more this is true. Against one or two opponents, you will often have the best hand.

[mmbt0ne]

Hand 1:
DON'T fold the turn
You're getting 9:1 immediate odds. Let's say that you have 3 discounted overcards and 3 discounted 4's for the gutshot!! 6 outs, 9:1 EASY call.

Hand 2:
I might fold the flop. You can be pretty sure that MP2 is going to raise behind, so you'll have to put in 2 bets, which greatly affects your odds. Also, you are in a LOT of trouble to TT, KK, and AA. I know the pot is big, but as I sit here thinking about it, folding looks prudent.
After you decided to call along though, you can't fold on the turn.

[ArturiusX]

AK is definitely a position hand. It should be your main consideration.

You'll often be the sole preflop aggressor. With less than 3 opponents (out of position), I like to bet out, because its quite possible we have the best hand. With 3 or more opponents, I usually check and call strictly with odds, depending on the board. If the board is raggy, thats good and I'll play to that. If it looks dangerous with plenty of redraws, I'll consider dropping it unless the pot is enormous.

Now, reasons why you raise overcards.... The good old free card play. With position this is easy; you can raise any bet or bet out, and probably get a free card. Without position though, the only real option for this is a check-raise. If no ones shown aggression preflop, the only way it'll come off is if you know someone will bet this postflop, hopefully the button. I only do this in big pots with a raggy board, pots I want to WIN. Small pots, the play isn't worth it, and you'll end up chip spewing. Once we take our free card, we can fold UI or maybe call heads up for one more, depending on the circumstance.


So remember this about overcards:

1) Number of opponents is critical. 1-2 others on the flop is fine to bet into, but 3-5 is not.

2) Position is your friend. Don't overplay out of position. Don't think that being the preflop aggressor turns you into a respected poker pro.

3) The board should be clean for you to consider playing on. Even a seemingly rag board like T86 can become very dangerous on the turn if theres still a lot of players left. Remember, boards get scarier as the players increase.

4) Free card play is almost always only good with position. However you can pull it off with a check-raise, but this works best if the bettor is the ONLY person who has put money in so far (you're in EP, checked to the button who bets, therefore you raise and make everyone call two).

This should give you enough to think about while playing overcards. Just refer to those points, address the situation, and dont overplay. Number of opponents is the single biggest factor. The less opponents, the less monsters.

[flopwell]

very nice and well thought out reply......saving it as good read /images/graemlins/smile.gif