Got confused, should I have called down?

[Womble]

CO is 14% VPIP and 14% PFR over 25 hands

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO (poster) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

Preflop raise, just started to do this from anywhere, good?
Flop bet was to isolate, thought CO would raise me and he did. Although should i have tried to see turn cheaply
On the turn I thought that he isnt necessarily raising junk so I folded.

Help /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[@bsolute_luck]

hmmm... 25 hands isn't a lot according to others around here, but i think those stats indicated a TAG. i think you're facing AA-JJ. he doesn't seem to care that you paired either J or T, so either he has a set of Jxs or AA-QQ, least thats my thought.

i think folding is fine.

[dr. klopek]

Yes, raise ATs in an unraised pot in any position. I think I'd check/call the flop, you've got MPTK, BDSD and a BDFD. The turn can help a lot, or make it nearly hopeless so I want to see it for one bet. I would also fold the turn.

[tor]

Well played, imo.

[jrz1972]

1. The PFR is automatic.

2. The flop bet is fine. You should actually sort of be rooting for a raise to get BB out.

3. Once it's HU, I think you need to call this down. Many villians will keep firing away with AK or AQ here. Some players will even play this way with 99 (putting you on unimproved overcards). On the turn, you might have the best hand and if not you probably have 5 outs (except vs. AA or AJ). On the river, you'll be getting almost 10:1 on a call. This should be +EV I think.

Edit: Hmmmmm. I'm sitting on a 28.5% WSD and am looking for more opportunities to get to show down. Apparently this isn't one of them.

[Womble]

[ QUOTE ]
2. The flop bet is fine. You should actually sort of be rooting for a raise to get BB out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was! That was the only reason I bet rather than check call. My WSD is ~ 30% which is similar to yours. Is that low?

The turn bugs me though, it is a nice(ish) card which doesnt really change anything. His turn bet would be a follow through and I would play 2 strong overs how he did, although I would also play a high PP the same way.

[Wetdog]

I like the PFR and flop bet. The turn is questionable to me also. Villain's tight and aggressive preflop. What about postflop? What's his stat there? He might be shooting at air hoping to get you to muck.

[DeathbySuckout]

I think he has a big PP he's pushing throught the hand. I think you did right by folding, as this is not a huge pot worth fighting for.

[grjr]

I might 3-bet the flop to see how much he likes his hand. Don't know how kosher that would be.

In your case I would have called down the turn and river because if I was in villains shoes I would be playing AK and AQ just like that.

[AlmightyJay]

I like preflop and the flop bet. Getting almost 8:1 on the turn may not be enough, though, since it's possible your ace outs are tainted. I probably play it the same way as you.

[htc1278]

Pre-flop I like, turn fold I like, flop bet (isolation play) I don't like. If BB is on a flush draw he is still getting correct odds to call a bet here. Furthurmore he wouldn't fold TP which has you beat. Most anything that he'll fold for 2 bets he'll fold for 1 (and most anything he'll call 1 bet with he'll have the odds to call 2 with here). I would check/call the flop because with your BDSD and BDFD you can safely lay this down if nothing hits and he bets the turn.

On a side note: you list some PT stats for CO over 25 hands yet he is a poster in this hand. Did you get these numbers from another table or did he leave and come back? I would consider a 25 hand sample size to be too insignificant...

[SteveL91]

I'll raise ATs anytime, anywhere PF. But, once you get 3-bet, I'm really not liking the flop bet. Given the pre-flop action and flop texture, if the BB is going to fold, I really don't think it'll matter if it's one bet to him or two. Also, the CO isn't folding here if he's at all reasonable. He easily has odds to see his gutshot until the turn, and he may or may not have overcard outs. So, I'd check the flop and see what happens. I'm not folding regardless, but what the BB does will heavily influence my turn play. In general, I think this can be treated as a way ahead/way behind situation. If anyone has AK or AQ, they're drawing to three outs against you; if they have a bigger PP, you're drawing to your three aces against them. While I really hate playing passively, I think this hand may be begging for it.

On the turn, I don't think I'm folding, but I don't think it's a big mistake either way. You're getting 7.75-1, which is just shy of what you need for a (probable) five outer; however, I think you can safely say you have implied odds for the call. He might have the flush, but I'm really not prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
I would consider a 25 hand sample size to be too insignificant...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, a 14% VP$IP will probably hold up +/- 10 over 100 hands. The 14% PFR is probably not very meaningful after 25 hands.

It's certianly not much to go on, but its a lot more than "no read".

At the mirco limits the only players I find I don't have more than about 25 hands on most players. The fish like to move tables a lot. Anyone who picks a table and sticks to it tends to end up with a rock or an eagle icon after 100 hands.


-D