Garbage on the bubble

[CheckFold]

I have 1400 on button, sb has ~3500, bb has ~1000 after posting the blinds, utg folds, blinds are 200/400. Should I be pushing any two here? If not, what sort of selectivity should I use? Assume up to this point I have made enough pushes to keep from getting blinded away to nothing, but hadn't been getting too crazy with it.

[Scuba Chuck]

Do the math. It will answer your question.

[Scuba Chuck]

I've gotten two PMs on this today, and apparently me pushing forum members to do the math is only spurring others to push me back. So here is the math. My thoughts, before I begin is that pushing with any two cards is correct here.

I'll assume this is a $33 game or below, so t8000 total chips.

UTG - 1700
Button/Hero - 1400
SB - 3500
BB - 1400

Blinds 200/400

SB hand range is very tight, and BB hand range will be more loose. It's too difficult to assume more than one will call, so I will only assume BB will call any of the pushes, and since he has a wider hand range, it will make the numbers look "good enough."

Let's assume two Hand Ranges (HR), for shits and giggles: (T ~ tight, L ~ loose)
HR(T) - 77+, A9+, KJ+
HR(L) - 44+, A5+, K9+, QJ, JT

The probability (PR) of BB having these hands is
PR(T) = 12.1%
PR(L) = 38.7%

X = probability of winning this hand against this range.

So the probability of BB folding is
HR(T) = 1-PR(T)
HR(L) = 1-PR(L)

$EV analysis (ICM)
Folding = 20.8% of the equity prize pool
Push, steal blinds = 26.4%
Push, and win hand = 34.9%

Therefore breakeven is
HR(T)
.208 = (.879)(.264)+(.121)(X)(.349)
.208 = .232 + .042X
X = -.57, or essentially, better than any two cards. (note, it's a negative number)

HR(L)
.208 = (.613)(.264)+(.387)(X)(.349)
.208 = .161 + .135X
X = .348 or 35% win probability.
*so essentially, again, any two cards is a correct push.

Next time I say you do the math. If you try to do it, then PM me, I will come and help subsequently. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Scuba

[Scuba Chuck]

What would be far more interesting, is what range of hands should you "Call" with if hero was BB here? I think the range opens up quite a bit. Anyone up to do the math?

Scuba