Let's talk about river bets

[cold_cash]

BB seems loose and passive, though I don't have a real solid read.

Does that make this river a value bet or shall I try to induce a bluff?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, Button calls.

Flop: (6 SB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, Button folds.

Turn: (4 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (6 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero...?

[GrunchCan]

Bet. Passive opponents can't be induced very effectively.

[Talex]

What calls here when you bet that you have beat? Weak aces? Anything else? I don't think there's much betting here either, so I think this is pretty much a wash, though I'd lean towards checking.

-Tim

[toss]

Seeing how passive players are more likely to call a bet, I think you should bet.

[MrEngenic]

Against some players I would valuebet this, but typically I would check. It's not about if you are ahead most of the time, you may very well be, it's about if you are ahead will you be called. When you are behind you will loose 2 bets to a raise, and if you are ahead you will gain perhaps as little as 0.5 bets since he may fold half the time. There is no way a worse hand would fold so you have no fold equity.
If you check and you are ahead he may bet maybe one third of the time making it almost as profitable. If you are behind you will loose one bet.
What it comes down to is really how good your opponent is. If he is reasonably good or likes to bluff, don't bet, if he sucks bigtime bet.

[toss]

[ QUOTE ]
if he sucks bigtime or like to bluff, bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

You got it the other way around.

[gvibes]

I bet this every time against a loose passive.

[cold_cash]

I'm not going to call a raise, if that makes any difference.

Also, I said he seems loose and passive, but I've only seen him for a couple orbits. In other words I guess he's pretty much an unknown.

[jba]

bet the river bro, I think this guy is playing that one party skin, I forget what it's called. you know the one i'm talking about, the one with no bet, fold, or raise buttons. Just one big huge button that says

<font color="red"> CALL </font>


(bet the river)

[Talex]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not going to call a raise, if that makes any difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes me pretty certain in my initial statement. I contend you never fold a hand that you're losing to with a bet on the end. I think you're called and or raised by better hands more than you're called by hands you beat, and I don't think it's all that close. If I'm wrong somebody help me out, what's calling here that makes up for the times that hero invests an extra bet and loses, or the times hero is bluffed off the best hand from a nearly unknown opponent? Moreover, hero has to be bluffed a lot less times than induce a bluff in order to make check-call the better line.

-Tim

[shant]

Would you feel bad about folding the river if you bet and your opponent raised?

Nevermind, just read your response. I think bet/fold is fine against a passive player.

[shant]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm wrong somebody help me out, what's calling here that makes up for the times that hero invests an extra bet and loses, or the times hero is bluffed off the best hand from a nearly unknown opponent?

[/ QUOTE ]

Qx, pocket pairs, Ax, 8x, etc.

If the player is unknown it's different, but if the read is the player is passive and has low river aggression, how often will that player bluff-raise the world's scariest river card?

[Womble]

A little observation. Any Ax will split the pot since your J kicker isnt in play

[Talex]

[ QUOTE ]
Qx, pocket pairs, Ax, 8x, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? This is a terribly scary board against a preflop raiser, and a brutal river. The pots not huge, which is when I see people making the worst of the calls in desperation. Loose passive doesn't mean comatose in my book. Am I really that far off?

[ QUOTE ]

If the player is unknown it's different, but if the read is the player is passive and has low river aggression, how often will that player bluff-raise the world's scariest river card?

[/ QUOTE ]

OP basically said the read is worthless, I don't want to stake this medium pot on a few hands read. Besides, the world's scariest river card is the perfect choice to bluff raise if the guy's got any bluff in him.

-Tim

[spoohunter]

[ QUOTE ]
A little observation. Any Ax will split the pot since your J kicker isnt in play

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't believe you're the first to mention this.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A little observation. Any Ax will split the pot since your J kicker isnt in play

[/ QUOTE ]

Can't believe you're the first to mention this.

[/ QUOTE ]

So how should this affect my decision, if at all?

[MrWookie47]

I think this should make you more inclined to check/call rather than bet because you stand to win less. However, if he's loose and passive enough, I'd still be inclined to bet here.

[DeathbySuckout]

This is an auto-bet for me.

[Talex]

I feel like an idiot for missing the split pot on Ax. Course it just fuels my argument for a check-call line.

-Tim

[Edit: I also keep thinking, but forgetting to say, that a passive opponent saves you bets on the end when you check by checking behind with hands that beat you. So check-call is a win win with either passive or aggressive opponents here.]

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an auto-bet for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

How come?

[SlantNGo]

It should swing it to a check/call because you're not ahead of much anymore, even given the wide range of hands a loose-passive may have.

[ QUOTE ]
So how should this affect my decision, if at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

[numeri]

[grunching]

Well, I had this long response written out, but it was so convoluted I confused myself.

If we bet, will villain call with Qx, 8x, or just a PP? If we check, what hands will villain bet? Against a very passive opponent, I think villain only bets hands we lose to, (yet we have to call) but will call with some hands we beat. With that in mind, we bet?

I have no idea... now to see how wrong I am. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[DeathbySuckout]

He's shown no aggression, you have top pair and the king on the river is not helping him.
Although I don't play these limits, so I may be way off base.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
He's shown no aggression, you have top pair and the king on the river is not helping him.
Although I don't play these limits, so I may be way off base.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not trying to pick on you, but what makes you so sure the King on the river didn't help him?

What about the fact that it's a club?

[Roybert]

I think I would bet here - he just seems like he's along for the ride.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I would bet here - he just seems like he's along for the ride.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

But is he along for the ride with a worse hand that will call often enough to make a bet the correct move?

[DeathbySuckout]

I don't think you're picking at all, if anything you're making me think more about it.
He didn't pair the K on the flop, or he would've raised. If the K brought him a set and he slowplayed the flop, he should've raised you on the turn when it was HU.
And you're right, the club could've helped him, which is why I like your bet/fold.

[DeathbySuckout]

Now that I'm reading this, I'm starting to see the reasoning for checking.

[shant]

So if you check-call, what hands is a passive opponent betting on that river that you're beating when you call?

[SlantNGo]

Smaller ace to a chop.

[cold_cash]

If he's passive he might not raise with top pair.

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
So if you check-call, what hands is a passive opponent betting on that river that you're beating when you call?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good question.

I think he will bet with an Ace pretty high percentage of the time (although we're chopping if that's the case), and he would probably bet a Queen another small percentage of the time.

He would also call with an Ace. I'm not sure he would call with a Queen, although he probably would since he called the turn bet.

[DeathbySuckout]

I guess this just goes against my nature to raise and see where I stand.

[cold_cash]

I understand, but we have to think about the way he might play his hand, not the way we would play it.

[charlie_t_jr]

[ QUOTE ]
In other words I guess he's pretty much an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

A 50/1 unknown, I may bet...an unknown 2/4, I'd check...

[Maurader1]

so what are the better hands that you could make fold
a Kx will raise as would a flush...
I think a AK/AQ/trips would have raised on the turn, even for a passive...
And if he has a worse hand, he'd probably fold on the completed flush
So I'd say check/fold, as you are probably beat if the passive bets (and your read is correct enough)