Marginal hand #2 Play or no play [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

grjr

04-13-2005, 11:38 AM

Here is hand #2 of my marginal hand series. BTW, By marginal hand I mean "not premium hand" not necessarily a marginal play (although it could be).

What would you do and why?

MP2 is LPP, MP3 is LAP, SB and BB are TAP

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, CO calls, Hero ??

GrunchCan

04-13-2005, 11:41 AM

Fold, but it's close. I'd likely call if there were 4 opponents (other than the blinds) or if the blinds were less tight.

davelin

04-13-2005, 11:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold, but it's close. I'd likely call if there were 4 opponents or if the blinds were less tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

KaiShin

04-13-2005, 11:42 AM

I think if the blinds came along it would make it a call, but since you've pegged the blinds as tight, I would fold this since 3.25:1 isn't quite good enough.

Aaron W.

04-13-2005, 11:46 AM

Unless you are pretty sure both blinds are coming along, you should fold this one. If you trust the stats you have, then it's an easy fold. Cold-calling 97s in a 4-way pot isn't so good, cold-calling 97s in a 6-way pot is quite nice.

Also, everyone is passive postflop, making it harder to collect when you hit your hand.

grjr

04-13-2005, 11:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Also, everyone is passive postflop, making it harder to collect when you hit your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where I think a little differently. They may normally be passive after the flop but once one of them raises preflop there's a lot better chance he will be aggressive after the flop and give me some good action if I flop my hand or good draw. Plus with MP2 being a fish there's a good chance he will suck along.

Ginso

04-13-2005, 12:04 PM

ok - first post, still learning - taking the advice of folks to post responses to hands to help improve my own play.

I'd fold. The odds your getting on it don't make it worth the investment. If the SB or BB come in, obviously you're getting better odds but its also likely they have something. of course you'd dump on the flop if your draws don't hit, but even so seems like a bad investment to me with the information you have.

that said, i'm just getting started, so what do i know!

Aaron W.

04-13-2005, 12:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Also, everyone is passive postflop, making it harder to collect when you hit your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where I think a little differently. They may normally be passive after the flop but once one of them raises preflop there's a lot better chance he will be aggressive after the flop and give me some good action if I flop my hand or good draw. Plus with MP2 being a fish there's a good chance he will suck along.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again I ask, how much more action do you think you can get out them? How often do you flop "your hand or a good draw"?

Even though someone raised preflop, it's not always clear that he's going to pay off everything postflop. This is not a no-limit game. In a 4-handed pot, you're probably going to squeeze out maybe 4-6 BB postflop (2 players for 2 SB on the flop = 2BB, one player will probably see the river from there = 2 BB).

97s is not going to flop a strong enough hand often enough to be profitable with such small implied odds.

droolie

04-13-2005, 12:17 PM

I'd fold this one. It simply won't hit the flop enough to make up for the times it doesn't. Having the button adds considerably to the value of this hand but you need to make up a lot of bets postflop to make spending 2SB worth it. Put in another limper or make the blinds looser or throw in LAG and I think this is a good marginal call. With this group you probably drag smallish pots the majority of the time you win.

grjr

04-13-2005, 12:19 PM

Ok, so most everyone here so far would fold this. If nobody had raised would you have called? Nah, don't answer that. I'm pretty sure you would have.

So, you call the flop with 3 others and the BB. What usually happens if you flop a draw? Everybody check to you because they're passive after the flop so you bet. 2 people call. You hit your draw on the turn and bet again. 1 person calls. You bet the river and he calls.

Let's see how much money that is. 5.5sb+3sb+2bb+2bb is roughly 8bb. So you profited 5bb. We'll see what happens in a raised pot.

RaiNz

04-13-2005, 12:22 PM

I fold this because your given read on the blinds is that they are tight.

grjr

04-13-2005, 12:30 PM

Ok, I called because of the reasons I already outlined. I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, CO calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
MP2 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero??

Well, that 3-bet was a surprise.

Aaron W.

04-13-2005, 12:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so most everyone here so far would fold this. If nobody had raised would you have called? Nah, don't answer that. I'm pretty sure you would have.

So, you call the flop with 3 others and the BB. What usually happens if you flop a draw? Everybody check to you because they're passive after the flop so you bet. 2 people call. You hit your draw on the turn and bet again. 1 person calls. You bet the river and he calls.

Let's see how much money that is. 5.5sb+3sb+2bb+2bb is roughly 8bb. So you profited 5bb. We'll see what happens in a raised pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absurd. You neglected the 65% that you don't actually hit your draw and the other 50% (estimated) of the time you flop nothing.

(By the way, I don't see where 5.5 SB comes from in your calculation. You don't get to count your 1 SB investment to see the flop as part of your profit.)

davelin

04-13-2005, 12:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see where your 27% VPIP comes from /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

jrz1972

04-13-2005, 12:33 PM

I'm folding this, and unlike many I don't see this as being especially close.

97s is a marginally profitable hand on the button if you can get in for one bet. Having to pay two bets preflop destroys the implied odds that this hand relies upon so desperately.

Add another limper or two, or loosen up the blinds, and I could be talked into coldcalling with this. But I don't think we've reached the "close decision" threshold yet.

jrz1972

04-13-2005, 12:35 PM

Call. It doesn't look like MP2 is going anywhere, and it doesn't look like he's in the mood to give you a free card.

droolie

04-13-2005, 12:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I called because of the reasons I already outlined. I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, CO calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
MP2 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero??

Well, that 3-bet was a surprise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero calls.

*Showing hands where you make marginal calls and then hit a nice draw does not prove that making the marginal calls is correct

Aaron W.

04-13-2005, 12:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm folding this, and unlike many I don't see this as being especially close.

97s is a marginally profitable hand on the button if you can get in for one bet. Having to pay two bets preflop destroys the implied odds that this hand relies upon so desperately.

Add another limper or two, or loosen up the blinds, and I could be talked into coldcalling with this. But I don't think we've reached the "close decision" threshold yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

97s is much better than that. It's an auto-limp on the button with two other players. You're not making TONS of money from this hand, but it's easily profitable.

jrz1972

04-13-2005, 12:39 PM

tinhat

04-13-2005, 12:39 PM

Maybe it's a leak but I'm a sucker for these kinds of hands (position, aggressor on my right which gives me some control, middle 1-gap suited) - I'd play (call) really hoping the blinds call. I'm always reluctant to cc but I think it might be worth it here. (Obviously the risk is blinds reraising to play. I'd consider folding to a reraise since with CO's cc, the blind(s) would probably only be raising with very strong hands.)

I like these partly because if I pair one/both it's more likely a reraise folds those on my left (everybody's passive). And if my fl/str starts to fill out I can call/semi-bluff depending (and probably no one suspecting I'm playing a 1-gapper).

Hmm. I had only read OP but after reading replies it appears I have a leak.

What kind of players normally complete from the blind with anything decent after two coldcalls, hoping to score big on the flop? Only loose players? Is that a red flag for tight players? Two coldcalls makes me think "bad players to take advantage of" (and since I admit this is a leak, I've admitted I am in fact playing badly here)?

jrz1972

04-13-2005, 12:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm folding this, and unlike many I don't see this as being especially close.

97s is a marginally profitable hand on the button if you can get in for one bet. Having to pay two bets preflop destroys the implied odds that this hand relies upon so desperately.

Add another limper or two, or loosen up the blinds, and I could be talked into coldcalling with this. But I don't think we've reached the "close decision" threshold yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

97s is much better than that. It's an auto-limp on the button with two other players. You're not making TONS of money from this hand, but it's easily profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I meant by "marginally profitable."

GrunchCan

04-13-2005, 12:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Showing hands where you make marginal calls and then hit a nice draw does not prove that making the marginal calls is correct

[/ QUOTE ]

grjr

04-13-2005, 12:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so most everyone here so far would fold this. If nobody had raised would you have called? Nah, don't answer that. I'm pretty sure you would have.

So, you call the flop with 3 others and the BB. What usually happens if you flop a draw? Everybody check to you because they're passive after the flop so you bet. 2 people call. You hit your draw on the turn and bet again. 1 person calls. You bet the river and he calls.

Let's see how much money that is. 5.5sb+3sb+2bb+2bb is roughly 8bb. So you profited 5bb. We'll see what happens in a raised pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absurd. You neglected the 65% that you don't actually hit your draw and the other 50% (estimated) of the time you flop nothing.

(By the way, I don't see where 5.5 SB comes from in your calculation. You don't get to count your 1 SB investment to see the flop as part of your profit.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

Aaron W.

04-13-2005, 12:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so most everyone here so far would fold this. If nobody had raised would you have called? Nah, don't answer that. I'm pretty sure you would have.

So, you call the flop with 3 others and the BB. What usually happens if you flop a draw? Everybody check to you because they're passive after the flop so you bet. 2 people call. You hit your draw on the turn and bet again. 1 person calls. You bet the river and he calls.

Let's see how much money that is. 5.5sb+3sb+2bb+2bb is roughly 8bb. So you profited 5bb. We'll see what happens in a raised pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absurd. You neglected the 65% that you don't actually hit your draw and the other 50% (estimated) of the time you flop nothing.

(By the way, I don't see where 5.5 SB comes from in your calculation. You don't get to count your 1 SB investment to see the flop as part of your profit.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I looked up some numbers (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1833461&page=4&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1) and it seems that you will flop something worth playing about 33% of the time.

Aaron W.

04-13-2005, 12:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
97s is much better than that. It's an auto-limp on the button with two other players. You're not making TONS of money from this hand, but it's easily profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I meant by "marginally profitable."

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry -- semantics.

jrz1972

04-13-2005, 12:46 PM

No problem. I agree with your take on this.

grjr

04-13-2005, 12:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see where your 27% VPIP comes from /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, and if that smirk was a wink then things would be a little smoother.

wyoak

04-13-2005, 12:46 PM

fold PF but people said that.

that flop was about as good as it gets for you. flush draw and double gutshot....you could cap this if you think it'll get you a free card if a blank turn falls or if another player was in. Heads up you don't quite have the equity to cap solely for value.

Aaron W.

04-13-2005, 12:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) This is an easy preflop call with no raise, easy fold in the given situation.
2) Your claim is false. The 50% number was an overestimate (to be generous to your position). 33% turns out to be a better choice.

Edit:

3) Futhermore, you should only expect to win about half the time you "hit" the flop, because you will either have a draw that comes in only 33% of the time (and win only about 85% of those) or you will have a pair that is difficult to protect.

grjr

04-13-2005, 12:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) This is an easy preflop call with no raise, easy fold in the given situation.
2) Your claim is false. The 50% number was an overestimate (to be generous to your position). 33% turns out to be a better choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not following you here. What claim did I make that is false?

fl0w

04-13-2005, 12:54 PM

I'd fold so fast it isn't even funny.

grjr

04-13-2005, 01:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Showing hands where you make marginal calls and then hit a nice draw does not prove that making the marginal calls is correct

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew that sooner or later someone would bring this up. I thought it would be post #3 so it was "sooner". For you gamblers out there the "under" is a winner. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Don't worry. They won't all be winners.

Oh, and I don't think I'm trying to prove anything. I thought these types of hands would lead to some lively discussion and maybe help some of those people who have a VP$IP of 12% and complain they can't beat the .50/1 limit.

Messy Harry

04-13-2005, 01:02 PM

Is a raise on the flop the best play? I'd be interested to here some responses.

I know it builds the pot for when you hit your draws and might buy you a free card on the turn. But either the better has a set and is going for value OR he's onto your free card play and making you pay for it. Either way, it drove out the other two callers who could have contributed 2 more BB's to the pot if you hit either of your draws on the turn. Then you could raise the turn.

Entity

04-13-2005, 01:05 PM

This is a fold for me, even with the button. I'd coldcall with T9s and maybe T8s and be more likely to coldcall with blinds.

GrunchCan

04-13-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I'm trying to prove anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe you. And I believe that the discussions garnered in the last couple days have been good for the forum. But I also think you tend to disregard advice even in the face of mathematical proof. You do this to your own detriment. It takes a lot of energy to write a long & thorough EV evaluation of a marginal situation. And while I'm sure some lurkers & thread contributors may benefit from the analysis, the OP's general refusal to accept such an analysis is also a little frustrating.

jrz1972

04-13-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is a raise on the flop the best play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly agree with the flop raise. If you knew that MP2 was going to immediately 3-bet and fold out the other two players, then obviously you would want to just call, but Hero didn't know that at the time. (Remember, MP2 is LPP. They don't do a lot of 3-betting).

Basically, Hero is raising with his flush draw for value. The fact that he might get a free card is just gravy.

grjr

04-13-2005, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I called because of the reasons I already outlined. I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the things I've noticed in your posts is that you dismiss other people's arguments out of hand. I don't think this is the best way to use this forum to improve your game.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's called a debate. I reply with my opinions and you replay with yours. Doesn't mean I'm right and doesn't mean you're right.

If everybody always followed the majority opinion then things would be pretty boring. Sometimes you have to think outside the box. My idea is to offer a differing viewpoint to make you think about these types of situations.

You are dealt a lot more marginal hands than you are ultra premium hands so you have more opportunity to win or lose money with them. If you take the time to read my opinion and think about it a little and then decide it's baloney that's fine. At least you had a different viewpoint than yours to compare with.

[ QUOTE ]
*Everyone* in this thread (except you) is in agreement that this is a fold preflop. While nobody is arguing that it's a huge leak, you might want to ask yourself if you're making a systematic mistake in preflop hand evaluation, or whether we're all wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I DO appreciate all the comments and compare them with my own thoughts. I then decide which course I want to follow. I WILL NOT follow a path because everyone else does. If I'm wrong then I have no one to blame but myself.

Aaron W.

04-13-2005, 01:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) This is an easy preflop call with no raise, easy fold in the given situation.
2) Your claim is false. The 50% number was an overestimate (to be generous to your position). 33% turns out to be a better choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not following you here. What claim did I make that is false?

[/ QUOTE ]

"More often than not" is the false claim. It's more like "half as often as not".

bottomset

04-13-2005, 01:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold for me, even with the button. I'd coldcall with T9s and maybe T8s and be more likely to coldcall with blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

that is prob my range as well, unraised pots with bad limpers you can limp along with alot of 1gappers, and sconnectors

the big difference is that implied odds for these hands thrive on seeing the flop for 1bet, every additional bet going preflop makes it harder to get to the break even point

so if forced to pay 2bets to see the flop, the only connectors worth playing have 1pair value, in that you will win a decent % of the time with toppair(orsecond pair on occasion) Tens or Jacks, where as pair of 6's,7's,8's are much less likely to hold up

say the breakeven point for your hand is 12 to 1(prob reasonable, as small pockets are around 10/1) and you are getting 5 to 1 on a call .. you need to make up 5-7SB when you hit strong

but if forced to pay 2bets, getting the same relative odds that is 10/2 .. you need to make 10-14SB to get back to even, considerably tougher and less likely to happen with small connectors, and 1gappers

also a main consideration is position, you really want the button with these hands, yes you do in the hand in this thread .. but an action line UTG limp, UTG+1 raise 2caller you in MP2 or Hijack isn't a very good spot to be w/ say 97s .. this applies when the pot is unraised as well, but you do have a little more flexibility in those situations

grjr

04-13-2005, 01:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I'm trying to prove anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe you. And I believe that the discussions garnered in the last couple days have been good for the forum. But I also think you tend to disregard advice even in the face of mathematical proof.

[/ QUOTE ]

With all due respect, Grunch, I don't believe you proved yesterday that calling 2 bets with a gutshot and BDFD was -EV since you didn't consider the outs for the gutshot.

[ QUOTE ]
You do this to your own detriment. It takes a lot of energy to write a long & thorough EV evaluation of a marginal situation. And while I'm sure some lurkers & thread contributors may benefit from the analysis, the OP's general refusal to accept such an analysis is also a little frustrating.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said in another response, I appreciate all the comments and analysis.

"...general refusal to accept such an analysis..." In other words, "I'm right and you're wrong". If I believe I have a valid position I'm going to state it. For many of these situations there is no "right or wrong"/"black or white".

I consider each opposing opinion strongly and then decide what's best for me using all the information I have. Hopefully you can understand that and not take it as an insult when I don't agree 100%.

grjr

04-13-2005, 01:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I assumed you would call preflop if the pot wasn't raised. Was that wrong to assume?

The example I gave was what more often than not happens when you DO hit the flop. Naturally, if you miss the flop you fold or check.

I included all my bets to show the pot size then deducted what I put in to show the profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) This is an easy preflop call with no raise, easy fold in the given situation.
2) Your claim is false. The 50% number was an overestimate (to be generous to your position). 33% turns out to be a better choice.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not following you here. What claim did I make that is false?

[/ QUOTE ]

"More often than not" is the false claim. It's more like "half as often as not".

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I didn't express that well. The "more often than not" meant that that's usually what happens when you actually do hit the flop. Not that you actually hit the flop "more often than not". Does that make sense now?

Aaron W.

04-13-2005, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I called because of the reasons I already outlined. I'll call this every time with a raiser and 2 others. If the blinds come along then great but I won't base my decision on whether I think they will or not. Whether that's correct or not I'll leave that up to you guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the things I've noticed in your posts is that you dismiss other people's arguments out of hand. I don't think this is the best way to use this forum to improve your game.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's called a debate. I reply with my opinions and you replay with yours. Doesn't mean I'm right and doesn't mean you're right.

[/ QUOTE ]

No... that's an empty dispute. A debate has content that goes beyond opinion. So far, you have put forth opinion while most everyone else puts for an argument.

[ QUOTE ]
I DO appreciate all the comments and compare them with my own thoughts. I then decide which course I want to follow. I WILL NOT follow a path because everyone else does. If I'm wrong then I have no one to blame but myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm glad you take this position. There have been past disputes where the "other" was adamant that his way of playing was right and refused to even accept the notion that there might be a mistake.

jrz1972

04-13-2005, 01:45 PM

And so after calling the flop 3-bet, the turn card was . . .?

grjr

04-13-2005, 01:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold for me, even with the button. I'd coldcall with T9s and maybe T8s and be more likely to coldcall with blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

.......but if forced to pay 2bets, getting the same relative odds that is 10/2 .. you need to make 10-14SB to get back to even, considerably tougher and less likely to happen with small connectors, and 1gappers............

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think of my opinion that when someone (other than yourself) raises preflop there is a much better chance of getting some significant action on the flop and beyond?

If 3 people limp in preflop they probably don't have great hands and may not put in any other money after the flop. At least with a preflop raiser {and cold caller) you have someone who values their hand and will probably put more money in after the flop.

grjr

04-13-2005, 01:55 PM

jrz1972

04-13-2005, 01:58 PM

Okay, this street seems pretty straightforward.

bottomset

04-13-2005, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of my opinion that when someone (other than yourself) raises preflop there is a much better chance of getting some significant action on the flop and beyond?

If 3 people limp in preflop they probably don't have great hands and may not put in any other money after the flop. At least with a preflop raiser {and cold caller) you have someone who values their hand and will probably put more money in after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes you will get more action on average than you would in an unraised pot, but you have twice the work to do, so unless you get more than double the action you woulda got in the unraised situation its not better .. plus in a raised pot you will lose more often when you do hit as many of the really good flops end up counterfeited by the river

another downside is that in raised pots the raiser tends to have a pretty strong hand, one that often is quite capable of counterfeiting your strong flops .. when you flop 2pair it will usually be bottom2, and will leave a straight draw on the board ..

istewart

04-13-2005, 02:04 PM

grjr, you've generated two very good discussions. However, you might be a little results-oriented /images/graemlins/grin.gif

jrz1972

04-13-2005, 02:13 PM

Yeah I've enjoyed both these threads, but they've each featured an extremely questionable early action that came up smelling like a rose with Hero hits his hand and Villain turns on the spigots.

grjr

04-13-2005, 02:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What do you think of my opinion that when someone (other than yourself) raises preflop there is a much better chance of getting some significant action on the flop and beyond?

If 3 people limp in preflop they probably don't have great hands and may not put in any other money after the flop. At least with a preflop raiser {and cold caller) you have someone who values their hand and will probably put more money in after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes you will get more action on average than you would in an unraised pot, but you have twice the work to do, so unless you get more than double the action you woulda got in the unraised situation its not better .. plus in a raised pot you will lose more often when you do hit as many of the really good flops end up counterfeited by the river

another downside is that in raised pots the raiser tends to have a pretty strong hand,

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the part I like (for the action potential).

[ QUOTE ]
one that often is quite capable of counterfeiting your strong flops .. when you flop 2pair it will usually be bottom2, and will leave a straight draw on the board ..

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the part I don't like. It seems like I win less than 20% of the hands where I flop 2 pair since my cards are usually close together and there is seemingly always a straight draw (as you said). Believe me, I know you have to be very wary in playing your 2 pair in that situation.

Actually, now that I think about it, I don't consider 2 pair a "strong" flop when there are more than 1 or 2 others involved. Strong to me would be the straight or flush draw.

grjr

04-13-2005, 02:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah I've enjoyed both these threads, but they've each featured an extremely questionable early action that came up smelling like a rose with Hero hits his hand and Villain turns on the spigots.

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't think I'd start out with the losers did you? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I understand where you guys are coming from but to me these two calls weren't questionable at all for the .50/1 level. If I'm wrong then I'm sure it will show up in my stats sooner or later.

grjr

04-13-2005, 02:27 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, CO calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
MP2 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls.

River: (16.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero ??

Ok, now I'm confused. The only thing that beats me is a better flush (which he could have the way he played the hand). There's about a 10% chance that someone was dealt 2 hearts with 1 or more higher than the jack. Do I go ahead and cap this or not since he's saying he doen't fear the flush?

jrz1972

04-13-2005, 02:32 PM

MP2 is LPP.

Assuming that read is pretty solid, I'm not capping this. In fact, when Villian 3-bets I'm regretting my decision to raise the river in the first place. If Villian were a post-flop aggressive I would be feeling much better about my chances here.

Firefly

04-13-2005, 02:33 PM

Just call. You've basically said "I have a flush" and he's telling you "I don't care" either he thinks 3 of a kind beats a flush or he's got something like AK /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Just call and if he's doing something donkish like AA or JJ, make a note and do better the next time /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Aaron W.

04-13-2005, 03:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I didn't express that well. The "more often than not" meant that that's usually what happens when you actually do hit the flop. Not that you actually hit the flop "more often than not". Does that make sense now?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but no. About one-fourth as often as not do you actually hit your draw on the turn. You're dancing around with intuitive notions that simply aren't correct. And these are the things that lead to incorrect conclusions. It might be worth scouring around for some probability lessons, because it would do tremendous things to your understanding if you had a grasp of the mathematics in the background.

grjr

04-13-2005, 03:04 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, CO calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
MP2 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls.

River: (16.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 22.75 BB

Results in white below: 
MP2 has 8h 6c (two pair, eights and sixes).
Hero has 7h 9h (flush, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins 22.75 BB. 

I thought I would catch some grief for wimping out on the river. At the time it sure felt like I was beaten. Check out what he had. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif Welcome to Party!

You can say I lucked out on this hand with all the extra action the donk gave me but if he hadn't 3-bet the flop I would have had 2 more callers along who might have caught something decent on the turn or river.

numeri

04-13-2005, 03:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 has 8h 6c (two pair, eights and sixes)

[/ QUOTE ]
LPP?? Through how many hands? Obviously this hand changes that read. I rarely trust those reads even 75% unless I have at least 50 hand with the oponent.

EDIT: Good discussion, by the way.

grjr

04-13-2005, 03:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I guess I didn't express that well. The "more often than not" meant that that's usually what happens when you actually do hit the flop. Not that you actually hit the flop "more often than not". Does that make sense now?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but no. About one-fourth as often as not do you actually hit your draw on the turn. You're dancing around with intuitive notions that simply aren't correct. And these are the things that lead to incorrect conclusions. It might be worth scouring around for some probability lessons, because it would do tremendous things to your understanding if you had a grasp of the mathematics in the background.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to try to explain my thinking one more time then I'll let it go. You admitted you would call this hand with no raise but would not call if it was raised to you. I said I don't mind it being raised because I'll usually get more action post flop.

I gave a simulated hand where you call 3 limpers with the the 97s. FROM MY EXPERIENCE, when the hand is not raised preflop there's a good chance that you won't get any good action IF you do happen to hit a good flop. Here's an actual example:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
4 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP2 folds, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 7.75 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 6d 8d (flush, jack high).
Outcome: Hero wins 7.75 BB. 

This is the type of hand you would call into. You don't risk as much up front but you don't win as much when you win. Now if you threw a preflop raiser in there I can almost guarantee there would be more action after the flop.

This is the reason I'm not afraid to call a raise with a 97s on the button. If nobody else here agrees with me that's fine but at least you can see there is a reason (valid or not) behind my actions.

I wonder if Ed Miller would call the original hand here.

grjr

04-13-2005, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
MP2 has 8h 6c (two pair, eights and sixes)

[/ QUOTE ]
LPP?? Through how many hands? Obviously this hand changes that read. I rarely trust those reads even 75% unless I have at least 50 hand with the oponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

40 hands on this opponent and his VS$IP was 67%. I think this may have been the only hand he raised on. He lost $41 in those 40 hands so he may have been tilting a tad.

I have to admit that I don't get a lot of good reads on opponents because I often don't hang around long enough to play that many hands with them. I feel (there's that word again) that at the .50/1 level reads are not ultra important. I'm sure as you move up in levels that changes quite a bit.

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Good discussion, by the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you /images/graemlins/smile.gif

numeri

04-13-2005, 04:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have to admit that I don't get a lot of good reads on opponents because I often don't hang around long enough to play that many hands with them. I feel (there's that word again) that at the .50/1 level reads are not ultra important. I'm sure as you move up in levels that changes quite a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's hard for me to get any reads other than from PT. But I do think they're important even at my level. (0.05/0.10) It makes it easier to value bet the river looking at WTSD, and other decisions come easier based on how aggressive opponents have been.

For me, it's difficult because they come and go so quickly. If I'm on a good table with bad players, I'll stay until I get tired or have to leave.

emitch

04-13-2005, 04:12 PM

I am up to the challenge and posting without reading the other responses so let me know where my logic is flawed (Like there is any doubt that someone wouldn't). This one would be a close call for me but I am a little tight. With position and the likelyhood of at least four other in the pot, the straight or flush will probably pay off well if it hits. You have post flop passive players to your left. Other than "non premium" cards, everything else seems perfect, so I say call.

KaiShin

04-13-2005, 04:16 PM

I like all the streets after preflop.

GrunchCan

04-13-2005, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind it being raised because I'll usually get more action post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if your opponents are passive. If you bet or raise a passive opponent, they tend to revert to thier passive nature and just call. You might extract 1 extra bet from them, but not more usually. Also, if they are weak they might even fold at some point, actually costing you bets.

In your OP, you said:

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 is LPP, MP3 is LAP, SB and BB are TAP

[/ QUOTE ]

...indicating that each opponent is passive postflop. But then later you said:

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get a lot of good reads on opponents

[/ QUOTE ]

The action that took place in the hand suggests that your opponents are in fact quite aggressive post flop - at least, they definitely aren't passive.

With the extraordinary aggression displayed by your opponents in this hand, I would change my original recommendation from "Fold, but its close," to "Call for implied odds." You did the right thing, but for the wrong reasons. You made 2 critical mistakes in this hand: 1) You did not have an accurate read on your opponents, and 2) you did not play correctly according to the read you did have. You were lucky in that your mistakes were self-neutralizing, causing you to play the hand correctly.

grjr

04-13-2005, 04:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't mind it being raised because I'll usually get more action post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if your opponents are passive. If you bet or raise a passive opponent, they tend to revert to thier passive nature and just call. You might extract 1 extra bet from them, but not more usually. Also, if they are weak they might even fold at some point, actually costing you bets.

In your OP, you said:

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 is LPP, MP3 is LAP, SB and BB are TAP

[/ QUOTE ]

...indicating that each opponent is passive postflop. But then later you said:

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get a lot of good reads on opponents

[/ QUOTE ]

The action that took place in the hand suggests that your opponents are in fact quite aggressive post flop - at least, they definitely aren't passive.

With the extraordinary aggression displayed by your opponents in this hand, I would change my original recommendation from "Fold, but its close," to "Call for implied odds." You did the right thing, but for the wrong reasons. You made 2 critical mistakes in this hand: 1) You did not have an accurate read on your opponents, and 2) you did not play correctly according to the read you did have. You were lucky in that your mistakes were self-neutralizing, causing you to play the hand correctly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'll be better off to leave the PT player stats out of these posts since the overwhelming majority of them will be less than 50 hands seen. My mistake on that.

MP2 was the only aggressive player after the flop (went nuts) but out of the 40 hands with him it looks like that was the only hand he raised ANYWHERE.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on one point. Just because a player is NORMALLY passive after the flop doesn't mean he is ALWAYS passive after the flop. If he raises at all preflop then those are the hands where he will tend to be aggressive post flop (because he has a good hand). This is what I'm talking about when I expect more action post flop when it's raised preflop--no matter the read on the opponent.

droolie

04-13-2005, 04:50 PM

grjr- Showing marginal hands being played when there are solid draws to the nuts is fine but the hands you should be putting in are the ones that you you miss the flop or flop middle or bottom pair with no backdoors. These are the hands that get us in trouble with the margial limpers. The high card strength just isn't there to bail us out when our draws don't flop. I think we all can agree that you can't really go wrong chasing a monster if the odds are even close due to implied odds but what do you do when you're drawing to 2 pair or trips? These decisions are more frequent and in many cases tougher.

jrz1972

04-13-2005, 04:57 PM

Moreover, we're seeing hands in which Hero nails his hand and then Villian proceeds to morph into uber-LAG and spew off a bunch of chips to Hero.

Obviously things worked out great in this hand. That doesn't change the fact that the preflop call is still "wrong" statistically.

I'm sure I could go back and find some hands where I limed with 44, the flop came down AK8, and I folded for one bet in a 3.5 SB pot, only to see a 4 roll off on the turn. That doesn't make my fold wrong. The same issue is cropping up in these hands.

grjr

04-13-2005, 05:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
grjr- Showing marginal hands being played when there are solid draws to the nuts is fine but the hands you should be putting in are the ones that you you miss the flop or flop middle or bottom pair with no backdoors. These are the hands that get us in trouble with the margial limpers. The high card strength just isn't there to bail us out when our draws don't flop. I think we all can agree that you can't really go wrong chasing a monster if the odds are even close due to implied odds but what do you do when you're drawing to 2 pair or trips? These decisions are more frequent and in many cases tougher.

[/ QUOTE ]

Point taken Droolie. This was only hand #2 though so can you blame me for starting out with a couple of winners? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I've got lots of marginal hands (surprise) so I'll be sure to mix it up some. I want to get to some more BDFD hands also since everybody seems to like those. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Oh, and the original idea of posting these was to show hands where more than half of the posters agreed on the flop call. This could help the "too tight" people realize where they are leaving some money on the table.

Frankly I'm surprised that 90% of the people who responded wouldn't call in this hand. It didn't seem like that bad of a decision to me.