Waiting for the turn

[chris_a]

Was the concept of waiting for the turn applied properly?
Was the turn card "raisable"?
Was is too late at that point?
Should I have expected a check-raise?

All questions I'm not positive about the answer to...

neither sLP-A nor NoReadJoe are bad players.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB <font color="#A500AF">(NoReadJoe)</font> calls, BB <font color="#A500AF">(sLP-A)</font> calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">NoReadJoe bets</font>, sLP-A calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
NoReadJoe checks, <font color="#CC3333">sLP-A bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">NoReadJoe 3-bets</font>, sLP-A folds, Hero calls.

River: (13.50 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">NoReadJoe bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

[KaiShin]

Bleh.

On the flop, with your overpair you should be charging people now if they're on a draw. Raise it because everyone who's gonna call is in the hand, and you've got them all trapped. You can't protect against flush draws on any street, so don't bother trying. The way you played it, you got the least money in the pot while you were ahead, and the most money in while you were behind.

Since you're holding the Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif, I don't mind the turn raise here.

Was it too late for what, at this point?

SB check/3-betting his flush on the turn is pretty stupid, IMO, unless he had some sort of read on you or BB.

[KeysrSoze]

I'd raise the flop. Even when the heart hits you've got outs and have odds to continue (hopefully he doens't have Ax or Kx of hearts, but you can't know) if you are beat, which you might not even be.

[@bsolute_luck]

the only thing i'd change is a raise on the flop.

[chris_a]

[ QUOTE ]
Was it too late for what, at this point?

[/ QUOTE ]

To drive "Joe" out of the pot? I guess that's a results oriented question so you can ignore it.

EDIT: I guess the real question was, was it too late to assume that I might have had the best hand still and that raising was in order.

Thanks for your comments.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
SB check/3-betting his flush on the turn is pretty stupid, IMO, unless he had some sort of read on you or BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't get this. what do you mean? yes i hate the c/3-bet too, but what hands do you put SB on with him doing this? when people do this get completely confused /images/graemlins/confused.gif and resign myself to call down because i'm so lost.

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SB check/3-betting his flush on the turn is pretty stupid, IMO, unless he had some sort of read on you or BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't get this. what do you mean? yes i hate the c/3-bet too, but what hands do you put SB on with him doing this? when people do this get completely confused /images/graemlins/confused.gif and resign myself to call down because i'm so lost.

[/ QUOTE ]
I mean that if I were SB, I wouldn't check the turn, because noone showed up on the flop to take control of the hand. I would lead out, and pray that someone with a 7 raises me. Of course SB's range of hands here is huge, but once he 3-bets the turn we can narrow it down pretty easily, unless he's a maniac.

We hold the Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif, so we have odds to call SB's 3-bet. I'd likely fold the river though. I don't think we're good here even 8% of the time.

[@bsolute_luck]

whatever SB does, hero should still raise the flop and turn though right?

[KingOtter]

I wouldn't wait on this one with 2 hearts and a pair on the board. First reason is you probably have the best hand, but you need to find out. So since you probably have the best hand, you want money in the pot. But you'll also see if someone like their hand well enough to contest you. I'd go so far as to cap the flop.

If it does get capped and NoReadJoe still comes out firing on the turn, then I call down, as you have tons of redraws, but I don't think your equity is good enough to raise it against 2, or heads-up.

KO

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
whatever SB does, hero should still raise the flop and turn though right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, definitely.

[chris_a]

I sat and thought aobut the turn raise for a bit. I decided to lean on the side of aggression because it's been paying off a lot over the last 10k hands and because it gives opponents chances to make more mistakes.

Contrasting factors in favor of:
Raising:
If a call's correct, then a raise is probably better since there's still another player in the pot.

Calling:
I'm either ahead or way behind in which case raising is going to do nothing. I thought that I could easily drive out "Joe"



But what do you do when the "drive out the other player" factor backfires? Do you call down and pay off? Muck? Crap your pants and call mommy?

[ajrenni]

I have a hard time knowing when to apply the "wait for the turn" concept, but let me give it a shot:

The decision to call the flop bet satisfies the 3 requirements in SSH
1. Raising will not get anyone to fold - no one who has put in a bet already is likely to fold now
2. Your hand is vulnerable - in addition to an Ace or King, a heart wouldn't be great to see on the turn, despite your redraw
3. If a favorable card comes on the turn, your equity will be much higher - this I think is also true.

So waiting for the turn isn't a bad idea here. In answer to your second question, one of the cards you didn't want to see showed up on the turn. Does the card ruin your hand completely? No, since you have the third nut flush draw and 2 outs to a full house. But since a new bettor has gotten interested in the hand, one who has stuck around despite aggression from both you and SB, I think it is too late to raise now. I would call here, as weak as it sounds, and get out of the hand altogether if SB and BB start going crazy.

- Andy

[KingOtter]

I don't like a turn raise. I don't think there is enough equity.

Trying to figure out what hand NoReadJoe could have to have a flush, and have cold-called pre-flop. Only hands I can come up with are hands where his flush dominates OP's. Especially since the read 'NoReadJoe is not a bad player' is present.

I'm thinking turn aggression means the Q's may not be good anymore. Especially once NoReadJoe c/r's (remember, he's not a bad player). To any hand that has us beat we're a dog, with draws. Raising assumes that you have more than 50% equity, no? And he either has the nut flush, or something that beats a nut flush since he c/r'ed the flush card.

KO

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
But what do you do when the "drive out the other player" factor backfires? Do you call down and pay off? Muck? Crap your pants and call mommy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends if you have redraws to beat what they're representing or not. If you have redraws, and the pot's big enough you call down. If you ain't got diddly, you fold and starting thinking about the next hand.

KO

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
But what do you do when the "drive out the other player" factor backfires? Do you call down and pay off? Muck? Crap your pants and call mommy?

[/ QUOTE ]
In this case, I would consider what I know about the player. Does he often bet/raise flush draws? Does he often attempt to slowplay big hands? Will he bluff a lot? Next I consider what the player has done in this hand. Does it fit betting patterns I've seen from him before? Notes are helpful here because I can quickly look and see if I've noticed him bluffing or doing other unusual plays.

Try it yourself. Tell me what you think SB's range of hands is on the flop. Then on the turn narrow that range to hands you think SB will check/3-bet.

[KaiShin]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like a turn raise. I don't think there is enough equity.

[/ QUOTE ]
You might be right about that. I'm at work so can't run through any equity calculations now. I enjoy raising single card flush draws, but I usually do it with A or K, Q might be pushing it. Also, I'm a big LAG /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

I don't really understand how we can peg NoReadJoe as "not a bad player" without a read. I think his check/3-bet of the turn would tend to speak otherwise, unless he's really really good /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[KingOtter]

I ran a few just on twodimes, and most hands we're behind we have about 20% equity (or 9% if we're way behind, like to a higher flush). I don't have pokerstove here so I can't do vs. a range, but I did vs. individual hands. I may be giving NoReadJoe too much credit, but just going by what OP said.

I agree that the turn c/r is a stupid move, but it still seems to say to me he isn't scared of the frush. I mean, what frush wouldn't call down from there, at least? So you're not going to scare it away. So really the only thing it says to me is 'I can beat you'.

KO

[MrWookie47]

I think the waiting for the turn concept applies most when you have a vulnerable hand that can't be protected on the flop but can be with a raise on the turn, assuming that the turn card doesn't ruin your day. Here, I don't think that your hand can be protected even if you do wait for the turn, so I vote for get your money in the pot while you probably have the best hand.

The river call is close. The pot is a decent size, but there are a helluva lot of hands that beat you. If folding is correct, I suppose you could call if you wanted to get a read on Joe.

[@bsolute_luck]

couldn't he have easily bet on trip 7s or paired T? it is hard to say because he didn't face any agression on the flop and we have no reads other than "not a bad player".

so he checks the turn- w/o reads, it is tough to put him a flush at this point. sLP-A then bets- possibly a bluff or flush draw. i'd raise here because we have outs to the flush and to a full house. the c/r though pretty much nails SB on a flush, if not a flopped full house.

either way i think the initial turn raise makes sense..then again, i don't know how to figure out the "equity" thing /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[MrWookie47]

I kept vacillating after I posted this, so I think I want to elaborate. The cards on the turn that could tank your equity are any ten, or any A or K of non-hearts. While the heart dropping may not be ideal, you pick up a redraw to the second or third ranked flush, which may help you if you're behind a seven. Any blank probably increases your equity somewhat, while a 7 or a Q probably drives it way up. To me, this looks like there are fewer cards that ruin your day than I initially thought, and not that many that help you out tremendously. Consequently, I think it's correct to raise the flop. Your action on the turn depends highly on the subsequent flop action.

[Wetdog]

The turn check/3-bet screams flush made. At that point I should (but sometimes don't because I'm Bud-donked and in love with Qs) fold. Then I tell myself not to do it again, but I'll do it the next nite.

edit: Oops, didn't see the flop pair. Two queen outs plus the 7s plus maybe half the hearts because he may be holding the A, so let's call it 8 outs.

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
couldn't he have easily bet on trip 7s or paired T? it is hard to say because he didn't face any agression on the flop and we have no reads other than "not a bad player".

[/ QUOTE ]

A paired T is about the only hand we're ahead of, so sure, that's the hand we hope for. And yeah, I may be giving Joe too much credit, but I can only go by what OP said. He's certainly not a maniac. Perhaps a bit laggy.

[ QUOTE ]

so he checks the turn- w/o reads, it is tough to put him a flush at this point. sLP-A then bets- possibly a bluff or flush draw. i'd raise here because we have outs to the flush and to a full house. the c/r though pretty much nails SB on a flush, if not a flopped full house.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you always raise when you have outs? You have to have equity to raise, not just outs. And though we do have outs, I don't think we have enough in order to merit the raise.

[ QUOTE ]
either way i think the initial turn raise makes sense..then again, i don't know how to figure out the "equity" thing /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if we think we're ahead still, then a raise would make sense. But a semi-loose passive player bet out, so we have to say 'what if we're behind?'. We don't know he was bluffing at it yet. I don't know if we knew he would bluff at a pot before the hand, either.

I'm not the best guy for calculating equity, either. So assuming we're behind, lets count outs, which we can use as a % chance of hitting our cards, and assume they're winners. We'll discount them on the front end. And we'll do it before we have the c/r info from Joe.

Flush cards: 9 unseen, discounted slightly for higher flush, or boat since pair on board--- 6 outs.
Boat cards: 2 7's, but discounted because Joe may have one, so 1.5 outs (it's a slim chance he has one). 2 Q's are probably clean, since you have the Qh. 3.5 outs.

So 9.5 outs is about 37% chance of hitting your winning card. So with Slappy in the hand, you can cap it. But do you know Joe will call 2 with the threatening flush card on the board? Since we're doing this before the c/r I'd have to say we can't guarantee he'd call 2 for the flush since he went passive and checked.

So it's better to call in order to encourage Joe to call, too.

Then he c/r's. Doh! Slappy folds. Doh! Doh! ... now it's headsup, and your equity just fell quite a bit, so you definitely don't have the equity to raise heads up.

By the way... there is no way in the world I can do this calculation at the table. I'm just avoiding work, apparently.

KO

[KingOtter]

Doh... I did my calculations based on the odds on the flop, not odds on the turn.

It's even worse... 9.5 outs on the turn with only the river to come is about 20% chance to hit the cards you need to win on the river. So no, raise wouldn't even be good when you know 2 people are in the pot.

KO

[KingOtter]

[ QUOTE ]
The turn check/3-bet screams flush made. At that point I should (but sometimes don't because I'm Bud-donked and in love with Qs) fold. Then I tell myself not to do it again, but I'll do it the next nite.

edit: Oops, didn't see the flop pair. Two queen outs plus the 7s plus maybe half the hearts because he may be holding the A, so let's call it 8 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, you're getting about 12.5:1 pot odds for calling Joe's 3-bet. You've got plenty of pot odds to call the 3-bet.

Another question... on the River... we're 13.5:1, call for one bet? Do we think we can win this one time out of 14.5?

I might call it just to see wtf he c/r'ed with on the turn.

KO