10/20 AQ hand

[Guy McSucker]

A hand from my likely-to-be-futile shot at $10/20.

SB here is very loose and kind of stupid. He'll call the whole way with anything, only betting as a bluff, and check-raising when he has something he likes. BB I don't know anything about.

How did I do here? It should be obvious I'm only asking about the river; I hope so! If I did anything wrong on the other streets I need to know about it fast!!!

Guy.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Sucker MC is Button with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Sucker MC raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Sucker MC bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Sucker MC bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (7.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Sucker MC raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB caps</font>, Sucker MC folds, SB calls.

Final Pot: 17.50 BB

[mperich]

Call river.

-Mike

[kiddo]

Sure looks like inside straight but I would think about calling. Strong folds against bad guys isnt EV+

[drexah]

good fold, looks like an obvious straight or two pair here.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
good fold, looks like an obvious straight or two pair here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, the 2 pair possiblity is pretty scary. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Krishan

[drexah]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, the 2 pair possiblity is pretty scary. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

heh, i should stop posting right when i wake up, i didn't even see the ace on the flop when i initially looked at the post, and although it definitely looks like a straight here, i would still call the river raise with top two.

[Jeff W]

I would rather gouge my own eyes out than fold this river.

Is that a leak? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

I would think about calling.


[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about it... and decided against. I am still not sure. I'm getting almost 9-1 here, but look at the river action: a bet from nowhere, which I raised, followed by a check-3-bet from the guy first to act, and a cap. If that does not scream "I have the nuts" I don't know what does.

9-1 though. Hmmm.

Anyone disagree with raising the river in the first place?

What if I just call the river, then the first guy check-raises, and the bettor 3-bets? Can I fold then, seeing as my pot odds are a bit smaller and there's every chance of a cap afterwards?

Guy.

[arkady]

I think gouging one's eyes out is definitely a leak. Can't see that being a +EV decision in the long term...no way.

[Jeff W]

Cmon Guy, you know that calling the first bet against an unknown is absurd here.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

I would rather gouge my own eyes out than fold this river.

Is that a leak?


[/ QUOTE ]

I can only imagine what might leak out. Yuck.

The river action looks very scary, though, doesn't it? Don't you think? No?
Am I good 10% of the time with this kind of betting on the river?

Guy.

[Grisgra]

Maybe it's a leak on my part, but I can't fold the river here. Seen too many people play too goofily with good but not great hands -- if you didn't have the best two-pair here, then obvious fold. As it is, I dunno. I think you have the necessary odds to call, but it's close . . .

[Jeff W]

Yes, it is very scary, but I believe you take it down at least 10%.

[Guy McSucker]

See, I knew I still didn't take this pot odds stuff seriously.

I am prepared to believe this should be a call, but I do think it's close.

Anyway, they both turn over KTo for the rivered nuts and I decide the $10/20 is softer than the $5/10.

Guy.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, it is very scary, but I believe you take it down at least 10%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just so we are on the same page, 10% isn't enough when facing 2-17.5 odds.

Krishan

[spydog]

Guy-

I call this river because I will be forced to see the results if I fold. What? Well, if I fold and QJ takes the pot I might go on mini-tilt and start doubting my play which will lead to a bigger loss longterm than a slightly -EV call.

So, I think this call is slightly -EV versus folding by maybe .10BB, but for my game this is wiped out when I fold the winner and minitilt away more than that .10BB difference. Does this make sense?

[Jeff W]

2/19.5~10.3%

My best guess is that he wins around 12-13%.

[ggbman]

The river is an easy raise, and i think calling the cap is relatively easy, i definitly think your good AT LEAST 1 in 9 times. You will often see someone river a smaller 2 pair here or even have made it earlier, but just start raising now.

[Justin A]

This is a fold. BB is not capping a worse hand.