Bubble: AQo as second shortstack

[Phoenix1010]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t362)
BB (t3981)
UTG (t3028)
Hero (t629)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero?

Push or fold, and why?

[Meatmaw]

Push. You're not much ahead of the short stack with the blinds hitting you soon and you can't expect much better than AQ nor to be in much better a position to steal that this in the next 2, 3 or so hands.

If you want something more detailed, calculate the ev of the hands you put them on if they call you. It's too late for me to do it tonight. d:

[TruFloridaGator]

Exactly you're not far ahead of him, easy push. I would be thankful to see that hand with my stack.

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t362)
BB (t3981)
UTG (t3028)
Hero (t629)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero?

Push or fold, and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

FOLD. And I don't think it's even close. SB has either doubled up or busted within the next hand. Make him double up before you voluntarily commit another chip.

[curtains]

After some soul searching I have to say you should probably fold. It's painful, but thats probably a leak in my game, if pain can be a leak.

[curtains]

btw calling preflop is an option here, assuming you'll have enough to play thru next set of blinds (meaning they dont move up to 150-300)

I was basically just answering your original question of push/fold, and then got caught up using eastbay's program so forgot about calling /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Pepsquad]

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btw calling preflop is an option here, assuming you'll have enough to play thru next set of blinds (meaning they dont move up to 150-300)

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And when SB pushes and BB folds? When BB calls?

[curtains]

You call preflop as long as SB moves allin here, regardless of whether the BB is in the hand.

[TruFloridaGator]

ugh, that doesn't convince me not to push here? Further explaining? Thanks!

[Pepsquad]

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You call preflop as long as SB moves allin here, regardless of whether the BB is in the hand.

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Wow! We'll agree to disagree.

[Pepsquad]

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ugh, that doesn't convince me not to push here? Further explaining? Thanks!

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Best case scenario is you push and fold SB and BB. You now have a stack of ~929. Even if the short-stack busts within the next two hands, you will be forced to push within the next 3 hands or you will be in exactly the same position as you are right now. What is the liklihood you pick up a hand you feel comfortable pushing within the next 3 hands? (And remember - you have zero FE) Not good. It doesn't matter right now whether you are BARELY ahead of SB or miles ahead of him. There is such a glaring discrepency beween the top 2 stacks and the bottom two stacks here that, make no mistake about it, you ARE playing for third place. The best chance you have of finishing 3rd is making SB double up with any 2 over the next 2 hands.

[curtains]

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You call preflop as long as SB moves allin here, regardless of whether the BB is in the hand.

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Wow! We'll agree to disagree.

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What are you disagreeing about? Im talking about what to do IF you call preflop, and then SB goes allin.

[TruFloridaGator]

Ugh, good reasoning, still find it tough to lay it down though.

[Pepsquad]

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Ugh, good reasoning, still find it tough to lay it down though.

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I agree. That is because laying this hand down goes against every instinct a good short-handed player has.

[Pepsquad]

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You call preflop as long as SB moves allin here, regardless of whether the BB is in the hand.

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Wow! We'll agree to disagree.

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What are you disagreeing about? Im talking about what to do IF you call preflop, and then SB goes allin.

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No you're right. IF you call pre-flop, then you MUST call the push. I'm just saying that it is for this reason that I disagree with even calling PF.

[curtains]

FWIW I think that allin is probably the worst of the 3 options. I'm not very good at figuring out when it makes sense to just call preflop in these spots, fortunately it's a situation that comes up rarely, I probably guess right a good % of the time, and even if you guess wrong it shuoldnt have a drastic overall effect on our win rate..

[Pepsquad]

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and even if you guess wrong it shuoldnt have a drastic overall effect on our win rate..

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Absolutely agreed. We're not discussing anything here that will ever be a big leak in anyone's game.

[ewing55]

In 4 hands SB is going to be blinded down to t62 and is going to be forced to play a hand. If SB folds, BB may very well take a shot at putting you out if he has a decent hand. I say fold and not take a chance with a race with BB.

Patience grasshopper. You've just spent ~45 minutes playing this SnG and you want to put your real money winnings to a ~60%/40% race? That's SB's job. Let him go first.

But I'm just a rookie, so take my advise with a big grain of salt!!!!!!

[Nottom]

I plugged this into the Eastbay Calc and it looks like its usually a push. If the BB will call with any two here (most party players won't) then you need to fold.

But any two is exactly that, if he will only call with {22+,A2s+,A2o+,K2s+,K2o+,Q2s+, Q8+, J8s+, J9o+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s}, then you still have an edge and can push.

If the SB were UTG, I might dump this but coming out of the blinds, he is going to have a few hands to find something and double up. If he does then you are going to really regret not pushing with AQ.

[curtains]

Nottom, note that some players will call here with basically any two. Another note, does it take into account the +EV you gain by folding the hand, because the SB may get eliminated? It seems that the folding EV is higher than the original EV to start the hand, but Im not sure how the program calculates that number.

[The Yugoslavian]

How I'd rank the options:
Call
Fold
Push

I would call here. I don't think you can let SB go HU against the BB here when you have such a good hand.

Yugoslav

[Phoenix1010]

Thanks for pointing out that calling is an option, I honestly never even considered it. I can see the reasons for calling, but the question with that, I think, is what do you do when the SB folds (which will happen often since he'll be hoping you go broke on this hand)? Do you fold getting over 2:1 odds with a third of your stack invested if the BB pushes you in? What if he checks and bets into you on any flop? Clearly you don't think calling pot commits you, since you might as well push if you're thinking that way. What is the difference between limping and calling all-in and just pushing all-in, except that by limping you have zero chance of taking it down preflop? So you must be thinking of folding if the SB folds and the BB taps you.

I understand that I should basically be playing for third in this situation, but I don't think you should overlook the fact that one double up puts me right back in the hunt. Calling and folding effectively destroys my chance of getting any higher than third by ensuring that I have almost no FE without doubling up twice. On top of that, my chances for third are still close to what they were before, as a double up by the shortstack will make me the desperate one, except this time, I have far less chips, so the race will be even closer.

SB folding and BB making me fold is a catastrophe that should be strongly avoided in this situation, and I think it will happen often enough to be worth thinking about. I don't think calling is very high above folding or pushing.

-Phoenix

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
How I'd rank the options:
Call
Fold
Push

I would call here. I don't think you can let SB go HU against the BB here when you have such a good hand.

Yugoslav

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I like calling here as well, to be honest. Even if the SB fold and the BB pushes, its not a disaster since you can fold and the SBs stack is now basically completely decimated.

[The Yugoslavian]

While I generally mind limp/calling pre-flop very much, I don't here.

The thing is, you don't have much FE anyway by just pushing outright. Calling affords you several scenarios that you benefit from that pushing does not afford. I think pushing is a profitable play. I think calling is more profitable. Frankly, folding is profitable as well, but I feel it is less so than the other two options.

There are three posters who could immediately change my mind. I think it's pretty close too, btw.

Also, you're not playing for third or first, you're playing to maximize your profit. This applies to every stage of STT play.

Yugoslav

[Phoenix1010]

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How I'd rank the options:
Call
Fold
Push

I would call here. I don't think you can let SB go HU against the BB here when you have such a good hand.

Yugoslav

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I like calling here as well, to be honest. Even if the SB fold and the BB pushes, its not a disaster since you can fold and the SBs stack is now basically completely decimated.

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In this scenario, the SB's stack is hurt yes, but since I hurt my own even more, he's still in striking distance. One double up for him plus blinds puts his stack above mine, with the blinds hitting me first. I also would have to fold until the blinds force him in, potentially losing me another half of my stack at least. The only thing that gets decimated is my chance of finishing above third.

[sofere]

So if SB folds and BB pushes what do you do? Your getting better than 2:1 on the call where your probably a favorite. Do you fold? Thats a hefty +CEV call that I can't see being -$EV. What if the SB completes?

IMO calling opens up a big can of worms. If SB pushes when you limp, its real easy...its not so easy when he does something you don't want him to do.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
How I'd rank the options:
Call
Fold
Push

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Frankly, folding is profitable as well, but I feel it is less so than the other two options.

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Juh???? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Phoenix1010]

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While I generally mind limp/calling pre-flop very much, I don't here.

The thing is, you don't have much FE anyway by just pushing outright. Calling affords you several scenarios that you benefit from that pushing does not afford. I think pushing is a profitable play. I think calling is more profitable. Frankly, folding is profitable as well, but I feel it is less so than the other two options.

There are three posters who could immediately change my mind. I think it's pretty close too, btw.

Also, you're not playing for third or first, you're playing to maximize your profit. This applies to every stage of STT play.

Yugoslav

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Against pretty bad players, I actually do have a little FE, but that's marginal. The only advantageous situations I see here involve the SB pushing (as I've said, the SB folding and me limp-folding does not help me). The question is what effect my decision to call or push has on his decision whether to push or fold. He is definitely more likely to fold if I push, but I really think he is still very likely to fold if I call. I think the effect is probably too small to be worthwhile. What calling (and pushing) accomplishes is blocking the SB from the virtual heads up coinflip with the BB. Calling has a small benefit of a slightly better chance of inducing a push from the SB, but this is balanced out by the small FE you have when pushing. I think it's close, but I lean towards pushing.

-Phoenix

[The Yugoslavian]

Folding is profitable because of the chances that the shorty will bust here anyway. It's really a moot point because unless you're going to stand up and piss on the table and get disqualified, any play here is profitable, IMO.

Similarly, in many circumstances I feel all of one's options are inherently unprofitable. Then it becomes a decision to find the least unprofitable one.

Yugoslav

[sofere]

Not my point...if folding is profitable, but less so than the other two , then why is folding not third of three in your rankings?

Edit: Sorry, for some reason I'm on a semantics kick today.

[Phoenix1010]

Probably because it was close and he changed his mind. I'm not sure where to rank folding either.

[The Yugoslavian]

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Not my point...if folding is profitable, but less so than the other two , then why is folding not third of three in your rankings?

Edit: Sorry, for some reason I'm on a semantics kick today.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bah! Because I misranked them....!@#$!@#$.

Yes, I can now see where the confusion lies, /images/graemlins/wink.gif. This has nothing to do with semantics and everything to do with me being a complete idiot...

My 'actual' ranking:
1. Call
2. Push
3. Fold

Yugoslav

[The Yugoslavian]

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Probably because it was close and he changed his mind. I'm not sure where to rank folding either.

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I often change my mind. But have not yet on this one. Perhaps my mis-ranking them to begin with is a subconcious effort to demonstrate just how close this is? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I dunno....but yeah, I meant to say call &gt; push &gt; fold.

Yugoslav