Bubble hand: QQ

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t5535)
Hero (t940)
SB (t415)
BB (t3110)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t200</font>, Hero calls t200, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t550) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t550) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (t550) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: t550

<font color="blue"> Do you think this is the best way to play this hand? Preflop thoughts, and postflop. </font>

[citanul]

i'm gonna go with no i don't like how you played this. i dislike any line that doesn't include hero pushing preflop. post flop i think you played it fine, and that the big stack played it pretty terribly.

unless i had a note on the guy saying that i've seen him miniraise only a dozen times, and every time they were aa or kk, i'm all in here.

citanul

[Patrick Duffy]

he was probably trying to steal cause he figured he could buy you out anyway. push and catch him by surprise. since you didnt, after he checks the flop and the turn, get your chips in there. he hates his hand after the steal didnt work, and hes terrified of that ace.

[pshreck]

If the 4th stack has like 200 chips or less, I might understand this.

But at 400+ he is actually right in the thick of things with you. Just push this.

[SuitedSixes]

Are you kidding me? What are you doing, trapping or being weary of being trapped?

Have you read any of the . . . oh I don't know 2000 posts on here, that tell you to either push or fold with less than 10BB?

4.7 &lt; 10

You baffle me.

[johnnybeef]

the only two hands that would be an easier push would be aa or kk......

[lehighguy]

Push. I can't even understand the reason why you aren't?

[pokerraja]

I think your line is fine if you held nines or lower. agree?

[dykker]

What would you have done to a raise.
And btw you are way behind in this tournament, and no way sure to get into the money if you loose this hand. So try to get more chips to secure the 3-rd place, probably you will not get a better hand in this sng.
So All-in, at least after the double check after the flop.


And a side node @pokerraja, I'm sure you meant 8's and down. There's a 9 on the table :-)

[JasonP530]

Chuck,

When he raises, there is 350 out there that you desperately need. If you get it, you will probably be in the money, while the short stack will be forced to take a weak hand and try to double through. Getting those chips gives you a good chance to make the money, unless the small stack gets lucky and doubles through a few times.

Postflop, I like it. You still have 740 left and there is only one overcard you fear on the turn(the K). If he is content to check, then so are you. If you had TT or 88, then you would probably be forced to bet it.

[Nottom]

I hate the preflop call.

The rest of it sits funny, but I don't hate it as much.

[Scuba Chuck]

So I assume you're calling a push here as well.

What hands are you folding here?

AK
AQ
TT
99
88
77

Assuming he pushes, which of those hands are you folding? Just curious.

[Nottom]

I think you can fold all of those ...
...and after running some numbers, I don't think the QQ call is as easy as everybody wants it to be.

Since pushing is probably only around break-even, maybe seeing the flop is the best way to play the hand.

[Scuba Chuck]

SS, out of curiosity, does the other short stack enter your mind here at all?

[Seadood228]

Like others have said I'd think the preflop push is the best play. You'd have to have a real good read on your opponent not to push here, and we know that's not the case because you didn't fold /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Postflop is fine, although I hate being in that situation.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Since pushing is probably only around break-even, maybe seeing the flop is the best way to play the hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's interesting that you're the only one who thinks this way.

I should do the math.

Perhaps you can help me a little.

What probability should I attribute to big stack folding if I push?

How loose a range of hands should I consider if I'm called?

Scuba

[Seadood228]

Isn't that one going to be extremely read dependant? I think the range of numbers you can plug in is quite broad, which will IMO render the calculations a little useless...

but then again I suck.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't that one going to be extremely read dependant? I think the range of numbers you can plug in is quite broad, which will IMO render the calculations a little useless...


[/ QUOTE ]

I think the fact that it is quite broad is what makes this analysis interesting. And the calculations should consider the fact that I will be going out in 4th if I lose, so the cal will probably reflect a very small advantage, IMO.

But the difficult question for me is, what is the probability that he folds. That's the hard part, far more than a hand range.

[Bluff Daddy]

Maybe im just crazy but I think I would have bet/pushed on the river

[Nottom]

Well a lot of the math works under the assumption that the bigstack will call your all-in. If you think he will fold half the time this is a clear push (which now that I think about it, is most likely true. I've been bouncing between threads and thought you had a bigger chunk of you stack in).

If you assume he will call. You need to win almost 75% of the time to make the push and even QQ needs a pretty broad range of hands to be a 75% favorite.

If you think he will lay it down 20% of the time then, you still need to win 71%
If he lays it down 30% you need to win 69%
If he lays it down 50% you need to win 64%, which is about where you stand against a reasonable calling range for him.

(if you want to see the math, let me know)

[Sam T.]

Unless you are trying to sneak into third, I think calling here is a bit icky. If you push, get called, and are against Ax (x lower than Q), you are going to double up 71% of the time. Do that, and second place is in striking range.

If the big stack is savvy enough to know the value of keeping the bubble alive, he may fold, and that's okay too.

If I accidentally clicked call, checking it down is not horrible. What do you do if he throws out a min-bet on the river?

Sam

[adanthar]

I get what you're trying to do but QQ is far too good a hand to play this cautiously with the other SS one doubleup away from a tie.

Push.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if he throws out a min-bet on the river?


[/ QUOTE ]

My plan was to make any sort of value call, that didn't put me allin (or almost allin).

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
SS, out of curiosity, does the other short stack enter your mind here at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not SS...but I agree that u are either 1. crazy, or 2. crazy.

If SS is your concern here, then fold the queens preflop...if this is what ICM is doing to us then lets defer to it on every bubble play.

Why the heck would you consider calling off 20% of your stack and checking down better than pushing the raise? Fine, its bad for your ITM% to push here, so fine....FOLD em!

This reminds me of whats his name...fold KK on the bubble to big stack's all-in...cmon scuba, this shocks me...prove me wrong.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I get what you're trying to do but QQ is far too good a hand to play this cautiously with the other SS one doubleup away from a tie.

Push.

[/ QUOTE ]

perfectly stated.

Scuba,

I think this play is ok when u have 99 AND SS has half of those chips...both arent true here.

[11t]

I push here 100% of the time

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
This reminds me of whats his name...fold KK on the bubble to big stack's all-in...cmon scuba, this shocks me...prove me wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not in the proving you wrong mood today.

I've had a few situations like this where I had AK recently. The general concensus was to call (not push) in a situation like this with AK. Then, in the game before this one, I had a play similar to this, where I had KK in the BB, and another shorty (who already folded). SB (big stack) raised. I reraised over him and lost to his A6. So, I am continually trying to think of ways to be "smarter." (And I had no problem pushing the KK hand - QQ is not a great as KK hot and cold.) If I could win this hand, without risking my tournament life, I thought that would be the best play, but apparently, that's not to your liking.

[pooh74]

I reraised over him and lost to his A6.

and your AA could lose to his A6 too...so fold that pf.

sorry, not trying to be confrontational, just trying to help...and when I see a player who I think knows the game advocating this play, im gonna swoop down. You dont realize how much you're actually helping SS instead of helping yourself.

[valenzuela]

I would push queens here, btw...I think pushing queens improves ur itm!!.

[Nottom]

I personally think my post shows this is much closer to a fold than people think it is. It might be a clear fold with JJ if I bothered to do the math again.

Yeah his play looks bad at first, but I really don't think its as bad as people want it to be.

[nokona13]

Nottom, you said he's only 64% against a reasonable calling range. I've seen LOTS of people at the 22s and 33s (where I'm pretty sure Scuba plays) play in the big stack like this. They minraise-steal in lots of spots, and give up pretty easily to aggression. I think if the typical party big stack calls with 50% of the hands he's doing this with, you're much better than 64% to win. He's ~66% to win against AQs, KQs, KJs. I really don't think he's got KTs+ or ATs+ or KK/AA 50% of the time he makes this play. Against KXo or AXo, he's better than 70% to win. And if he's calling with something like KTs, he's probably calling with 77/88+. So I think he's either calling a LOT less than 50% or scuba's much better than 64% to win the hand, like 70-75%.

[RobGW]

PF is an easy push for me. Nottom, I don't know where you got your math from but if you care to explain then I'd like to hear it. This seems like too good a hand to play passively. Post flop, why are you checking it down with him? If he had an Ace he probably would have bet it. He most likely has a couple of high cards that didn't hit the board or a lower PP. He probably won't call another bet with high cards (which is a reason to push PF) but may call a bet with a PP since you played it so passively. I think one way or another you have to put all your chips in here. Have you been listening to the weak tight players on this board who have gotten you into the habit of sneaking into 3rd?

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
In the game before this one, I had a play similar to this, where I had KK in the BB, and another shorty (who already folded). SB (big stack) raised. I reraised over him and lost to his A6.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
"I wanted that call, just not that outcome."
-CrisBrown

[/ QUOTE ]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=893714
pokenum -h kh kd - as 6c
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Kh 1221578 71.34 485698 28.37 5028 0.29 0.715
As 6c 485698 28.37 1221578 71.34 5028 0.29 0.285



[ QUOTE ]
So, I am continually trying to think of ways to be "smarter." (And I had no problem pushing the KK hand - QQ is not a great as KK hot and cold.)

[/ QUOTE ]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=893711
pokenum -h qh qd - as 6c
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qd Qh 1222540 71.40 485002 28.32 4762 0.28 0.715
As 6c 485002 28.32 1222540 71.40 4762 0.28 0.285

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=893724
pokenum -h qh qd - as ks
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qd Qh 917606 53.59 787966 46.02 6732 0.39 0.538
As Ks 787966 46.02 917606 53.59 6732 0.39 0.462

[willie]

push preflop

[Nottom]

Well the math is all based off of ICM calculations, for example if the bigstack is raising with Any Pair, A6s, A8o, Any Broadway, he is playing about 22% of his hands. Against that range of hands you are about a 71% favorite. So If he had pushed, you have a tough decision and actually should be folding since you need to win 75% of the time (see my earlier post).

If he will fold half of those and call your push with 88, AT, KJs, KT, QJ then you are now a 66% favorite, which is good for you, since you only need to win 64%.

I agree that this is probably a push (given I have no real read on the big stack) but I just wanted to say that this is much closer than it appears.

And given that it is close it is so hard to believe that the Hero's line might be a good option as well even if it is a bit counter-intuitive. (I might try and run some numbers on seeing a flop and bailing to action if an A or K flops, while pushing if it doesn't, but I don't really have the time now.)

[RobGW]

You hate the PF call and you make arguments against pushing PF. Are you advocating folding this?

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
You hate the PF call and you make arguments against pushing PF. Are you advocating folding this?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that this is probably a push

[/ QUOTE ]

Is folding a posible option with slightly different circumstances? Yes.

[JasonP530]

This is a very interesting hand for me, so I would like to keep the discussion going. I think that your folding equity is good for 750 more. If you dont think its good, then how will you steal in the future? The SB will be out of the blinds, so it will take at least 4(more likely 8) more hands if he chooses to just wait and hope someone goes broke. If you cant steal(I would classify your reraise as a resteal), then youre not going to be able to get any chips and are hoping the SB will go broke. Your point about KK being better against raising hands is good, but I think QQ is good enough. If you had 2k and the raiser had 2k, you could lean more towards calling.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very interesting hand for me, so I would like to keep the discussion going. I think that your folding equity is good for 750 more. If you dont think its good, then how will you steal in the future? The SB will be out of the blinds, so it will take at least 4(more likely 8) more hands if he chooses to just wait and hope someone goes broke. If you cant steal(I would classify your reraise as a resteal), then youre not going to be able to get any chips and are hoping the SB will go broke. Your point about KK being better against raising hands is good, but I think QQ is good enough. If you had 2k and the raiser had 2k, you could lean more towards calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

good post...some good points