Not entirely sure I should post this [Archive]

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vinyard

04-12-2005, 08:34 PM

I think my play here is solid but since I have started pushing more of these hands my ROI, coincidentally or not, has decreased greatly.

A little background. I had pushed the previous two hands hands and was called both times. I had pushed 55 versus 99 and lost (doubling the small stack) and then won a three way pot where my KK managed to stand up against TT times two. There's no small blind as a result.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t500 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero (t4885)
SB (t3105)
BB (t2010)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of t500.
1 fold, Hero raises to t4885 (All-In), SB (poster) calls t2605 (All-In).

Flop: (t7990) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t7990) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t7990) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t7990

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kh 9h (two pair, kings and fives).
SB has 8d 8c (full house, eights full of fives).
Outcome: SB wins t6210. Hero wins t1780. 

Before I started reading more of Eastbay school of thought* I would have folded or mniraised (and folded to a reraise) so I guess my question is:

I am pretty sure the push is + chip EV but - cash EV. Thoughts?

YourFoxyGrandma

04-12-2005, 08:41 PM

Easiest push in the world. Not really, but it's a really easy push.

raptor517

04-12-2005, 09:24 PM

yer in the money, and pushed into a coinflip. what more do you want? /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

beeyjay

04-12-2005, 10:46 PM

k9s is a monster in that spot

Nottom

04-12-2005, 10:59 PM

If you are already in the money chipEV and $EV are usually quite close, especially as the chip leader.

I think this push is fine. I mean you out flopped him and he rivered a set ... /shrug.

citanul

04-13-2005, 12:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yer in the money, and pushed into a coinflip. what more do you want? /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[/ QUOTE ]

he wants to win the coinflip dummy. he's running bad, winning a few of these every once in a while wouldn't hurt.

citanul

Fatdogs12

04-13-2005, 02:23 AM

IMHO I think it's a close decision. In my experiance plays like that tend to seperate the people who place high from those who don't. I mean in your situation you are chip leader, so I think you want to take less risks (depending on your opponents). You preferably want to place second or better here. Now if you figure he has the worst hand 7-2, then you are a 70/30 favorite over him. I don't know if I like this bet that much though because you have so much to lose. Against the SB you stand to lose 3105 of your chips leaving you at around 1700 and leaving you with a good chance of only placing third here.

I think the best bet is to call. If the flop comes off good (which it did) then I can see a reraise all in. With a king on the flop he is MUCH less likely to call your all in, esp with you in early positon. Now if he calls you there and you are beaten, too bad, but I don't think taking a best case chance of 70/30 and an K9 vs avg chance of 60/40 is really worth it being ahead.

Also to consider is the BB. He is really low on chips at this point and will have to act soon, most likely on a less than premium hand (or even better could get blinded down). I much prefer playing an avg hand vs the BB all in than the SB. If you lose you will still have 2800 chips, plently enough to still be on the SB level while if you win you will place second and be in a great position to play against the SB any way you like!

I think this makes the most sense, anyone who disagree's or agree's let me know

TruFloridaGator

04-13-2005, 02:59 AM

I like this post...but I also like a push, either way IMO

stupidsucker

04-13-2005, 04:54 AM

bb is 500..

five hundred

F I V E H U N D R E D.

PUSH