Pick a line, any line

[EverettKings]

PP 30+3. Villain in this hand has been playing pretty tight, VP$IP 13%.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1805)
UTG+1 (t365)
MP1 (t650)
MP2 (t455)
MP3 (t2130)
Hero (t630)
Button (t900)
SB (t290)
BB (t775)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t200</font>,
folds to Hero who....

If I push preflop that settles it. But is there any room for calling or folding here? He's almost certainly pushing any flop with only 430 remaining, so is calling and playing any non-A/K flop a viable option? What about folding?

I put him on a very tight range of raising hands, AK or TT+. As a mathematical approach, im a 1.3:1 dog vs that range, and won't be getting those odds on a push. And I just can't see any "good" line to take by just calling.

Thoughts?

-Kings

[willie]

it's close, but this may be one of the few times i'd consider folding jacks preflop, but you're short and almost need to gamble here, at best you're a coinflip i'm pretty sure- and i'm almost positive you're a 4-1 dog.....

i still think i push and curse the poker gods though....

[EverettKings]

Bumpedy bump. Only 12 views doesn't settle this discussion for me.

I actually did fold preflop, though I felt weird doing it. Would love some more opinions though.

-Kings

[Ian J]

Push is the only viable option here. Anything else is just criminally wrong IMO.

[hummusx]

On the message board I look at everything you've presented and say, 'Yeah I think a fold was probably the right move.' At a table, I probably just push these and curse the poker gods. The goal is to someday get the heat of the moment into perfect alignment with post-game analysis, right? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

*edit* Ok, my explanation. I don't want to get yelled at. You said your read on this guy is that he is only raising AK or TT+. Assuming that's true, and as you stated, your only really ahead in one scenario, tied in the unlikely JJ scenario, and losing to QQ KK AA. Coin flip for AK. If you are sure (relatively) that he has one of these hands, folding is the right move.

If there's more than a tiny chance he's in with other hands...then I think you have to push.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
Push is the only viable option here. Anything else is just criminally wrong IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

We should really have an "etiquette" sticky at the top of all forums.

I hate these posts, and all like it. No offense, and I appreciate your input, but I am beyond fed up with un-explained responses. "I would have done x" does nothing for anyone seeking hand advice, so PLEASE explain why you advocate that particular line, and why previously discussed lines are not as good.

Didn't mean to rip you apart, and I know you were just trying to contribute to the discussion, but please explain yourself. I really would love to hear why you think that.

-Kings

[nokona13]

I have to hate the fold. I guess if you feel strongly the guy really wouldn't make that bet with anything but AK or TT, QQ+, then it's a fold mathematically. But I think there are reasons that even a player who's been really tight into level 3 but is down to 650 might well open up a bit here. I think this could definitely be AQs, and very possibly AQo, and also maybe 88-99. Getting back to 725 is really helpful for him here, and level 3 is a tricky place to play, since he doesn't want to push AQ or 88, but might feel he can't just fold and eat more blinds, especially if they're changing soon. If you allow even for just 99, this becomes a push by the math, and if you include AQs as well it becomes a pretty obvious push. You could very well be up against QQ+, but I'm definitely pushing this.

I'm thinking I don't want to push/steal with marginal hands in the next couple, especially since one of the big stacks is gonna be on the blinds the next two hands, and you don't want to steal from EP with 9 left and two giant stacks to act after you in a few hands. Then you're left to eat the bigger blinds and start playing level 4 on the button with 470.

[Freudian]

I would push. Sometimes he folds, sometimes he has an overpair, sometimes he has 99-TT and sometimes he has AT-AK.

If villain had 1k chips I would probably fold.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I have to hate the fold. I guess if you feel strongly the guy really wouldn't make that bet with anything but AK or TT, QQ+, then it's a fold mathematically. But I think there are reasons that even a player who's been really tight into level 3 but is down to 650 might well open up a bit here. I think this could definitely be AQs, and very possibly AQo, and also maybe 88-99. Getting back to 725 is really helpful for him here, and level 3 is a tricky place to play, since he doesn't want to push AQ or 88, but might feel he can't just fold and eat more blinds, especially if they're changing soon. If you allow even for just 99, this becomes a push by the math, and if you include AQs as well it becomes a pretty obvious push. You could very well be up against QQ+, but I'm definitely pushing this.

I'm thinking I don't want to push/steal with marginal hands in the next couple, especially since one of the big stacks is gonna be on the blinds the next two hands, and you don't want to steal from EP with 9 left and two giant stacks to act after you in a few hands. Then you're left to eat the bigger blinds and start playing level 4 on the button with 470.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that he would raise AQ or 99/88 here, but I felt that he would raise less, to 125-150 ish, with such a hand that he didn't want to get too committed with yet. In other words, I don't think he was looking to add 75 chips to his stack with that bet. Maybe I'm reading too much into his bet, but the 200 raise of his 650 stack says to me "I'm ready to go to war.". If he bet a little less, weren't so tight, had a different number of chips, or if this were a 10+1 instead of a 30+3 I'd probably push.

He wound up having AK FYI, though that doesn't help the discussion.

-Kings

[hummusx]

If he'd shown you AK, would you have pushed?

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
If he'd shown you AK, would you have pushed?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope this is a trick question, 630 bet to win 705 chips as ~55% favourite (not to mention knocking out an opponent seems solid). It should be an autopush.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
If he'd shown you AK, would you have pushed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course. AK is not the hand of concern here though, hence why I said that this information changes nothing. Obviously AK is in his range of raising hands here, the question was what else is.

To me, his bet was like saying "I have a broadway pocket pair or Ace-King. Wanna dance?". So I was like "No thanks dude, this ain't my song."

-Kings

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]

If villain had 1k chips I would probably fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is why u cannot put villain on such a tight range as u have. He has the blinds coming soon, they might even be 100/50 by then (? do you know?) and he is trying to gain some equity while he can. I would push these in a heartbeat. I understand your read tell u otherwise (along with the fact that he is raising from earlish middle po) but you cant let these go....push or fold opt for push.

ps...the fact that you pointed out that he would raise less with 99-tt is opposite of how I would think here...the lesser the holding, the less he wants a call and hence the more he would raise...IF there is something to glean from the size of the raise, it would be this IMO, not what u said.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If villain had 1k chips I would probably fold.[/quote/]I think this is why u cannot put villain on such a tight range as u have. He has the blinds coming soon, they might even be 100/50 by then (? do you know?) and he is trying to gain some equity while he can. I would push these in a heartbeat. I understand your read tell u otherwise (along with the fact that he is raising from earlish middle po) but you cant let these go....push or fold opt for push.


[/ QUOTE ]

I personally would push if he had 1k chips.

The villain is in a wierd spot with 13 BBs. A push is a pretty big overbet and people simply do not feel overly pressured at the 25/50 level. I certainly wouldn't fear the coming of my blinds there, as I'd still have 11.5 BBs after. He'll still have plenty of equity when the 50/100 level comes.

[ QUOTE ]

ps...the fact that you pointed out that he would raise less with 99-tt is opposite of how I would think here...the lesser the holding, the less he wants a call and hence the more he would raise...IF there is something to glean from the size of the raise, it would be this IMO, not what u said.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, the problem is his awkward stack size. If I had AQ, 88, 99 there I wouldn't push because I'm likely to only be called if I'm smoked, and adding 75 chips to my stack wouldn't help me that much. I would either limp them or make it 150ish, so that I could still get away.

I understand that worse hands likely bet more to avoid a call, but in this situation worse hands likely try to leave themselves an out. Big hands try to get all in, though pushing for 13 BBs is too much of an overbet for him. Betting 1/3 of his stack is a good way to get all in.

-Kings

[etgryphon]

I think this whole discussion comes down to how good you think your read is on the guy. I think with his chip stack, i.e. just under 10xBB then I wouldn't mind the fold. But, it kinda begs the question does this guy get desperate at less than 10xBB? He seems like a bit of a rock with the vp$p he is really pot committing himself here with the raise so he is playing for all of his stack. I don't think the fold is terrible, but I don't think a push is bad either.

I think I would probably fold because a rock who is pot committing to a push here probably has some good hands. But, I don't think you can rule out AQ-ATs, 99, 88 here in his spot.

-Gryph

BTW, Way to represent the 'Burg, Go Tribe!

[pooh74]

I agree, if he had 1k id push too...but I dont think your fe goes up that much...

[Rosencrantz1]

I guess this is more of a related question/comment than a line for the hero, but...

Is anyone else troubled by the size of the villain's bet? He's not doing great stack-wise at this point and out of position. I agree with the fact that by betting 200 here he's saying, in effect, I'm ready to push. So why ISN'T he pushing from the get-go? I assume it's because he wants some callers. If he's playing a middle pair, I would think he wouldn't want callers and would therefore go ahead and go all in. The bet makes me think he's on AA/KK or AKs. He figures at worst he's 50:50 and much more likely to be ahead PF.

[etgryphon]

my thoughts exactly...It just seem too tempting to go over the top.

-Gryph

[citanul]

ok, first off, to the op:
while i usually also don't like the unexplained post, i think that your criticism is totally unfair. if someone feels like contributing something like "i push and it's not close" that's up to them. i might want ot kill them for using a stupid assed 2+2 cliche, but what are you going to do, you know? i feel however, that in this case, if you're going to write something as inflamatory as what you did, you should at least offer your line, with a good explaination for it, to set an example.

so here's the rub for me: i think that your range that you put the opponent on is ludicrous. i don't understand why you put him on that range instead of some other range. note that the opponent has a really weird number of chips. i'm assuming here, from what i read further down, that part of the reason you put him on this range is because of his non push, but large, raise preflop. well, i think that's nutty. amongst the many things you should remember about most of your opponents is to remember that they are mostly bad. i'd have a hard time putting my opponent on a range like this without having some really good reason to.

at the same time, your stack stinks too. there's a very good chance your ahead, and a good chance that you're way ahead, of the raiser. there are times in these sng tournaments that are like the mythical "inflection points" where you need to start thinking about making some chips or going home, even if the blinds aren't big. this i think is one of them.

continuing, you're going to have folding equity against the pfr sometime here, which is extra hot, and your'e going to get called by worse hands sometimes. hell, sometimes you're going to get called on your push by the raiser and a blind and both of them are going to have overcards, or 3 overcards and an under, or two overcards and an underpair. all extra hot with spicy sauce on the side.

so yeah: my answer =&gt; i think i'd push here without significant reasons to fold.

my rant: don't falme people for responding with less than totally explanitory answers to your question. it makes you sound like an enormous dick. sorry if the person didn't think that your hand was interesting to take it to the icm or something, or that all the top players didn't decide to respond to it, or something, but chill out.

citanul

[vinyard]

I think that's a very limited series of hands to put him on. I could easily see him rasing with A7s and above and AT through AQ unsuited. This, oviously changes the math a fair bit and makes it an easy (over)push.

The four BB raise is a little queer on his part but with JJ I think you take a stand here.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, first off, to the op:
while i usually also don't like the unexplained post, i think that your criticism is totally unfair. if someone feels like contributing something like "i push and it's not close" that's up to them. i might want ot kill them for using a stupid assed 2+2 cliche, but what are you going to do, you know? i feel however, that in this case, if you're going to write something as inflamatory as what you did, you should at least offer your line, with a good explaination for it, to set an example.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason that I even bothered to respond to the unexplained response is not to be a dick, but because this person obviously had something to contribute to the discussion, but didn't express it well enough to be of use to anybody. Just saying your opinion is a start, but unless I can understand why you think what you do, my game will not improve.

I really wanted to hear what the guy had to say, but I've been getting frustrated seeing one line posts like "push" or "fold preflop" or whatever. You can't deny that such posts offer little to the discussion, but those posters COULD contribute with a few sentences of expounding. I was simply expressing this point with a dose of frustration.

[ QUOTE ]
so here's the rub for me: i think that your range that you put the opponent on is ludicrous. i don't understand why you put him on that range instead of some other range. note that the opponent has a really weird number of chips. i'm assuming here, from what i read further down, that part of the reason you put him on this range is because of his non push, but large, raise preflop. well, i think that's nutty. amongst the many things you should remember about most of your opponents is to remember that they are mostly bad. i'd have a hard time putting my opponent on a range like this without having some really good reason to.

at the same time, your stack stinks too. there's a very good chance your ahead, and a good chance that you're way ahead, of the raiser. there are times in these sng tournaments that are like the mythical "inflection points" where you need to start thinking about making some chips or going home, even if the blinds aren't big. this i think is one of them.

continuing, you're going to have folding equity against the pfr sometime here, which is extra hot, and your'e going to get called by worse hands sometimes. hell, sometimes you're going to get called on your push by the raiser and a blind and both of them are going to have overcards, or 3 overcards and an under, or two overcards and an underpair. all extra hot with spicy sauce on the side.

so yeah: my answer =&gt; i think i'd push here without significant reasons to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you read over the posts on this forum? I've explained repeatedly why I put him on that range, though you don't think thats reason enough because many players are bad and illogical.

I agree that some are. You say that there is a good chance that I'm ahead, and I agree that there is some chance. But I dont think that chance is very high, and I have no way to quantify the percent of the time that the raiser here is not playing reasonably. Of course this happens some of the time, but how much is some? A third? Ten percent? Two percent?

There is soundness to your argument. I argued that if he's reasonable it's a close fold, but you argue that the chance that he's not entirely reasonable (or predictable) is enough to make it a push. I assume that people are fairly rational at the 30/3 level until proven otherwise (by VP$IP, or observed hands). You seemed to assume the opposite.

I really don't know where I'm going with this, but I thought I'd steer this discussion into a productive direction.

-Kings

[citanul]

i have no time to make a more in depth response right now, but i sure hope you have some fancy way of implementing your "vpip" as a usable statistic in sngs. otherwise, it's just about the most worthless stat there is for sngs.

i'll go back soon and see what your repeated reasons for putting him on that range are.

citanul