$10+1: Steal now to preserve future FE?

[spentrent]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t1125)
SB (t1330)
BB (t1165)
UTG (t1095)
MP1 (t1775)
Hero (t705)
CO (t805)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ???

This is the first hand at 100/200. I have stolen the blinds the last 2 hands in a row.

Do I let the button get to me and then play bingo? Or do I push now when I have the most FE (EDIT: relative to my distance from the button)? Yes, I realize my FE has been affected by two straight steals. That's fair game in this discussion.

(My goal with all of these steal/FE/range posts is to get a sense of when desperation, as determined by stack size, overrides logic-- if that's even the right way to put it.)

[1C5]

No, i fold this forsure, if you pushed 2x in a row there is a good chance someone at the $11 level will call with Ax or even worse.

[EverettKings]

In this situation, to push 89o is to push any two. And I don't think this is the time for that just yet.

Yes, you're pretty friggin short, but you have 2 hands til the blinds, and can catch something in those still. With 4 players left to act, the odds that you get called here are just too great IMO. Unless they are unusually weak-tight, I'd wait for a better spot.

-Kings

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
No, i fold this forsure, if you pushed 2x in a row there is a good chance someone at the $11 level will call with Ax or even worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does it matter that I'm at only 2.5BBs and I probably need some luck to finish ITM anyway? I allow connectors like 89o exactly because a part of me welcomes Ax to call here. That's the desperation speaking. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Unarmed]

Push.
BTW if your opponents call with A7o+, all suited aces, all pocket pairs, all suited broadway, your 89o does better than A5o.

Waiting for a better hand is dangerous because you have no guarantee someone won't push before you do.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I have stolen the blinds the last 2 hands in a row.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that is a tight table. So you accumulated 300 chips in the last two hands, starting with just 400. Nice job.

Your table image is very poor now. Someone's bound to play table cop with a hand like A9 soon. Anyway, from your post, I suspect you're feeling very anxious. Relax. You're fine, IMO. Should you push this hand? I wouldn't. I would wait for a premium hand, or wait to push any two against the guys who just folded the previous orbit to your pushes. They obviously are VERY tight. It would cost your 300 to gain 600 that route. Hopefully, a few others will knock each other out in the meantime.

GL and play well.
Scuba

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, you're pretty friggin short, but you have 2 hands til the blinds, and can catch something in those still. With 4 players left to act, the odds that you get called here are just too great IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are so many things in this paragraph that I have difficulty quantifying. In the next two hands, how likely will I be dealt something that fares well against Ax? How is my FE affected by getting further away from the button with each deal? With 4 players left to act, how do I quantify the odds of getting called, and thus decide what range IS pushable here? Ya know what I mean?

[ QUOTE ]
Unless they are unusually weak-tight, I'd wait for a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely a factor. Despite the frequent chicken little posts about the $10+1s getting so much tighter, 7 players at 100/200 is unusual. I don't know if "weak-tight" is the right way to describe pre-flop discipline though. I hope not /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No, i fold this forsure, if you pushed 2x in a row there is a good chance someone at the $11 level will call with Ax or even worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does it matter that I'm at only 2.5BBs and I probably need some luck to finish ITM anyway? I allow connectors like 89o exactly because a part of me welcomes Ax to call here. That's the desperation speaking. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true, pushing is not a bad play here. I would fold but an argument can be made for pushing also.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Waiting for a better hand is dangerous because you have no guarantee someone won't push before you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, let's talk about the psychology of lower limits. Look at the stacksizes relative to the blinds. What's about to start happening?

The bigger stacks are gonna tighten up - 'cos they're fish, and they need to make they're money back they lost the previous 20 games. The smaller stacks are getting anxious, and they don't want to lose, and they've seen the pros on tv push with crap and win all the time. This is a very interesting stage. RELAX. RELAX. It's important that you're considering when to push, but relax. The picture becomes clear when you're in the right state of mind. Pushing 3 hands in a row when it's 7 handed is very unwise, IMO.

If you're multi-tabling here, and you're not relaxed, reduce the number of tables you're playing. Keep a clear head. Relax.

Right now is like watching the pirhannas eating themselves. The table tends to start to implode. Sometimes, and I mean sometimes, folding will bring you into 3rd place. I'm not saying that's the best play, but I'm trying to point out that being patient here is a good move, IMO.

If I were in these shoes considering what you've told me, I'd think about pushing, then I'd take a swig of honeyweiss, and hit the fold button. "gooosewaba"

Scuba

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I have stolen the blinds the last 2 hands in a row.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that is a tight table. So you accumulated 300 chips in the last two hands, starting with just 400. Nice job.

[/ QUOTE ]

It was actually an unusually tight-aggressive table for the $10+1s in that most pots were being opened with a raise, hence my inability to steal effectively any earlier. I was very very very patient before I got crazy from the button/CO those 2 hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Your table image is very poor now. Someone's bound to play table cop with a hand like A9 soon. Anyway, from your post, I suspect you're feeling very anxious. Relax. You're fine, IMO. Should you push this hand? I wouldn't. I would wait for a premium hand, or wait to push any two against the guys who just folded the previous orbit to your pushes. They obviously are VERY tight. It would cost your 300 to gain 600 that route. Hopefully, a few others will knock each other out in the meantime.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hadn't considered that the blind increase also made everyone else a little more desperate. (I knew I bought TPFAP for a reason /images/graemlins/wink.gif ). So perhaps my share of the prize pool now has a better chance of increasing now that the chance of fireworks has increased? Is this what you're saying?

Regarding waiting for a premium hand-- what if I had NOT stolen twice in a row at this unusually tight table? Would preserving future FE be the deciding factor here to include 89o in my push range, since my image hasn't deteriorated to the point where a table cop needs to call with Ax?

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're multi-tabling here, and you're not relaxed, reduce the number of tables you're playing. Keep a clear head. Relax.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, that I am multi-tabling allows me to be "too relaxed" such that I don't worry about the bad effects of my play. I'm thinking "this feels like a situation where I need to push, for reasons X, Y, and Z. Push, then post the hand and worry about the quality of the play."

I'm trying to make sure my clear head has the right stuff in it. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds 100/200

Button (t1125)
SB (t1330)
BB (t1165)
UTG (t1095)
MP1 (t1775)
Hero (t705)
CO (t805)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8, 9.
2 folds, Hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Right now is like watching the pirhannas eating themselves. The table tends to start to implode. Sometimes, and I mean sometimes, folding will bring you into 3rd place. I'm not saying that's the best play, but I'm trying to point out that being patient here is a good move, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be more inclined to fold now if MP1 was somewhat of a decent/thinking player. When you are short, but not tiny, stacked, a thinking player will often avoid pushing when you are BB and they are SB. They recognize that you are pot-comitted and will call with a very wide range of hands, so they'll fold their SB when they are not strong. Their correct play benefits you in this situation.

On the other hand, many low level players are not thinking and they will be MORE likely to push from SB against a stack your size because they don't consider the fact that you are more likely to call- they just see your small stack and know they have you covered and their mind shuts down after that.

Anyhow, it wouldn't be a huge part of my thought process, but if MP1 was decent I am more likely to agree with you about the fold.

[RobGW]

[ QUOTE ]
Does it matter that I'm at only 2.5BBs and I probably need some luck to finish ITM anyway? I allow connectors like 89o exactly because a part of me welcomes Ax to call here. That's the desperation speaking.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, it matters and you definately need some luck anyways. And who cares if Ax calls. As long as it isn't A9 or A8 you are ok. Your FE is gone now by pushing 3 hands in a row but its going anyway once you go through the blinds. You are nowhere near making the money and the blinds are about to eat you up. You need to double up here. Just push and laugh when you suck out on someone with AK.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Would preserving future FE be the deciding factor here to include 89o in my push range

[/ QUOTE ]

Difficult question to answer that is. Your position, hand strength, and stack leaves you in a vulnerable position. If I were assigning probabilities, I would think you're looking at a 50% race probabilities with these new blinds.

I would recommend you watch (don't play) in a couple $10+1s. Start to get a feel for when the frenzy starts. I would steal prior to the frenzy, and then wait for premium hands, or solid position to steal. Beyond that, stealing on the bubble is also a fantastic choice.

Tonight, I'll post a series of hands that I think you'll find interesting from one of my games last night. I think you'll find it very very interesting.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would preserving future FE be the deciding factor here to include 89o in my push range

[/ QUOTE ]

Difficult question to answer that is. Your position, hand strength, and stack leaves you in a vulnerable position. If I were assigning probabilities, I would think you're looking at a 50% race probabilities with these new blinds.

I would recommend you watch (don't play) in a couple $10+1s. Start to get a feel for when the frenzy starts. I would steal prior to the frenzy, and then wait for premium hands, or solid position to steal. Beyond that, stealing on the bubble is also a fantastic choice.

Tonight, I'll post a series of hands that I think you'll find interesting from one of my games last night. I think you'll find it very very interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I find this post very enlightening. Thank you. A "Frenzy Concept" seems terribly useful. It might be useful, or absolutely vital, to be able to identify when the game reaches "frenzy" conditions... involving number of players, average stack size, median stack, etc...

This doesn't seem to happen often at the 11|22s where I play because the field is usually quite pruned by the time the blinds are "big."

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to double up here. Just push and laugh when you suck out on someone with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree that you need to double up here. But your advice is precisely what everyone else at this table is thinking.

Is there no consideration for letting everyone else battle it out first? I think we'd all agree that we'd prefer to take a coinflip when it's 4 handed, rather than 7 handed. IMO, this is the general dynamics of a table when the table is this deep in players all short-stacked relative to the blinds. You'll be surprised how a small stack will have FE against the middle stack at this stage. They are thinking about survival. I'm more worried about the other shorties calling with similar garbage. Let two other schmoes fight it out. Hopefully, your coinflip will be when it's 4 or 5 handed. Where you can go on a pushing spreee.

Furthermore, you have 9 hands (assuming no one goes out, lol) before your second set of blinds hit you. You will find a solid hand to push (or call, yes call) with in those 9 hands. You just need to survive here, not take over the chip lead. You accumulate chips when it's 4 handed, not 7 handed.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
A "Frenzy Concept" seems terribly useful. It might be useful, or absolutely vital, to be able to identify when the game reaches "frenzy" conditions... involving number of players, average stack size, median stack, etc...


[/ QUOTE ]

Tournament play is more about survival, than playing king of the hill. Keep that in mind. Keep tabs on your own emotions, you'll often find that's what the table is thinking. And then do the opposite.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Yes, you're pretty friggin short, but you have 2 hands til the blinds, and can catch something in those still. With 4 players left to act, the odds that you get called here are just too great IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]



There are so many things in this paragraph that I have difficulty quantifying. In the next two hands, how likely will I be dealt something that fares well against Ax? How is my FE affected by getting further away from the button with each deal? With 4 players left to act, how do I quantify the odds of getting called, and thus decide what range IS pushable here? Ya know what I mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, let's do some math. You're a 2+2er, you like math right?

The first step is to figure out what range of hands calls you. That's the hardest part, and depends on the texture of the table and your image. Given that they're being pretty weak tight, and your image is kinda loose, lets say any one of the remaining 4 would call with 55+, A7+, KT+, QJs ish. In reality the blinds would call with a bit more and the CO/button a bit less, but for simplicity and approximation let's just say this. Feel free to alter this range and recalculate.

Now, what percentage of all hands does this range constitute? 6 ways to make each pp, 16 ways to make each nonpair, 4 ways to make each suited nonpair. So that's 6*10 + 16*10 + 4 = 224. There are 52*51/2 or 1326 total hands, so 224/1326 = about 17% of hands.

So the chance that four people don't draw such a hand are (1-.17)^4, or 47%. We'll ignore the chances of two people calling since it's pretty small (range tightens after the first caller) and involves a triple up chance, so we'll call it negligible.

so, 47% of the time you get no call and win 300 chips. 53% of the time you get called and will win (pokerstove this) 1/3 of the time. So .53*.33 = 18% of the time you get called and win either 805, 905, or 1005 chips. Pretend its 900 for simplicity (I'm making a bunch of small approximations but it shouldn't matter that much, as we're looking for a clear decision).

So you will have .47*(700+300) + .18*(700+900) + .35*0 = 758 chips on average.

So its roughly a breakeven proposition. If they're tighter, it becomes slightly profitable. If they're looser, less so. The reason that I STILL say to fold is that while pushing here has a zero or small +EV, folding gives you a chance to catch something good, which has a much higher EV IMO. It's still marginal, but I'd wait for a better spot.

Hope that helps

-Kings

[spentrent]

GREAT POST EverettKings. Thank you. The following is resonating with me right now:

[ QUOTE ]
So its roughly a breakeven proposition. If they're tighter, it becomes slightly profitable. If they're looser, less so. The reason that I STILL say to fold is that while pushing here has a zero or small +EV, folding gives you a chance to catch something good, which has a much higher EV IMO. It's still marginal, but I'd wait for a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

We could argue about the ranges all day long but it's the gist of the post and the steps you've used to come to a conclusion that are opening my eyes. Thanks again.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd be more inclined to fold now if MP1 was somewhat of a decent/thinking player.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are such an overachiever. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Well, not being one who studies people on his right, this is a very perceptive point. But I think your thought process carries to the entire table, not just the SB here. IMO, this is a $33 table thought process more than an $11 table process (and definately not a $55, for some reason - I caught a guy doing this to me yesterday. I reluctantly called with QT, he had 95 - haha)

[ QUOTE ]
Anyhow, it wouldn't be a huge part of my thought process, but if MP1 was decent I am more likely to agree with you about the fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This obviously IS a huge part of your thought process, as you indicate you might be less likely to fold otherwise. NegEV, I think we have parted ways a little bit on our thinking on small stack play. This is an interesting table right now. Everyone's tight and anxious. Blinds are now painful. There's too many people and too few chips. Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn about MP1. Let the frenzy begin. And I'm pushing everytime it's folded to me in the SB.

[Voltron87]

Fold and push one of the next two.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold and push one of the next two.

[/ QUOTE ]

yuk

[Voltron87]

Chances are you will get a better hand than 89 in two deals. Why is folding here so bad?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Chances are you will get a better hand than 89 in two deals. Why is folding here so bad?


[/ QUOTE ]

I was not critiquing the fold advice, it was the subsequent advice that I thought was "yuk."

According to the Push or Wait (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1941378&amp;page=1&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1#Post1941496) thread, the best hand you can expect within the next two hands is 44. I still think yuk. Nothing like running through a mine field naked with your hands over your nuts.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A "Frenzy Concept" seems terribly useful. It might be useful, or absolutely vital, to be able to identify when the game reaches "frenzy" conditions... involving number of players, average stack size, median stack, etc...


[/ QUOTE ]

Tournament play is more about survival, than playing king of the hill. Keep that in mind. Keep tabs on your own emotions, you'll often find that's what the table is thinking. And then do the opposite.

[/ QUOTE ]

You keep refering to anxiety, having a clear head, emotion... I feel like I need to clarify my use of the word "desperation." I'm not describing my emotional state; rather I'm using an emotional state as a metaphor to describe a stack size.

For instance, if I'm in a ring game with 3 BBs and I can open on the button, I'll push any two out of "stack desperation," not "man I'm hungry and I need 1.5 more BBs to get some dinner" desperation. Know what I mean? A "desperate stack" is one that is X BBs, not one possessed by an emotionally desperate player.

I'm trying to figure out what X is in certain STT situations. You're teaching me that "frenzy conditions" are a big factor in determining X.

At a table as tight as the one in the OP, I felt that the combination of the table tightness plus my "stack desperation" called for a fair bit of mania. Not "man I'm hungry and life sucks" desperation. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[NegativeEV]

[ QUOTE ]
This obviously IS a huge part of your thought process, as you indicate you might be less likely to fold otherwise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not a huge part of my thought process, but yes, important. This is one of many factors that I'd consider in making this play. I'm certain that you DO observe the tendancies of the player to your immediate right as that knowledge is critical during bubble play. This factor is something to consider, but it wouldn't be such a driving force in THIS hand that it would likely change my decision. Later on the tendancies of the player to your right are very important in your decision process.


[ QUOTE ]
NegEV, I think we have parted ways a little bit on our thinking on small stack play. This is an interesting table right now. Everyone's tight and anxious. Blinds are now painful. There's too many people and too few chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are not too far apart here. I would most likely fold in this situation, there are just a couple of other factors I'd consider.

[Voltron87]

Eh, so you want to wait and take a blind? I'm feeling pretty sick right now and can only give basic snap judgement answers. Interesting question. You only get 4 hands until another blind after you take the first, so I don't think we gain much hand value by taking a blind here.

Alright back to sleep. Uggggggh.

[rickr]

How did you steal the blinds before? With raises or pushes? If you were that low I would assume pushes, but it would effect my decision.

Later,
Rick

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
How did you steal the blinds before? With raises or pushes? If you were that low I would assume pushes, but it would effect my decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushes. I was very under 10BBs for both steals.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like I need to clarify my use of the word "desperation."

[/ QUOTE ]

You're overanalyzing, and I think I still disagree. Desperation is still emotional, like it or not. You are seeking ways to increase your stack, rather than ways to increase your opportunity, or increasing $EV. You can increase your $EV, for example, by folding and letting others 'fight it out.' You may think that your stack is desperate, but those are your thoughts, as your stack is an inanimate object. If you knew you had a 50% chance of doubling up here or be out (with no further thoughts on the future outcome of the tourney), or you could fold to ITM, what would you take?

My point is, whether you're desperate, or your inanimate stack is desperate, look around. Do you think your stack is having these feelings in isolation? Start thinking in a bigger picture. Quit looking at just yourself. My guess is that BB, UTG, CO, and perhaps Button are all feeling the same way. And that MP1 and SB are already counting their money. One or more mistakes are about to happen. Will it be yours?

AT this point, still being 7 handed, your objective this round is to end up with an extra 300 chips or more by the end. You will very likely do this one of three ways. You steal once, and your BB is folded back to you. Or you lose that BB, and steal twice. Or, you call someone's push and win. You have 10 hands to decide. Are you thinking 10 hands ahead? Where are your best opportunities? And quit thinking about your cards. If you had AJs here, then yeah, push, that's easy. But 89 is just as strong as 23 here.

Then, think ahead some more. If someone goes out before the 10 hands are up, the very first 200/400 blinds will be you. Now what are your thoughts?

How often are you paying attention to this? I often find myself pointing my finger to the people on the screen to figure out how much "time" I have between blinds.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushes. I was very under 10BBs for both steals.


[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, You were under 5BBs for one of 'em.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pushes. I was very under 10BBs for both steals.


[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, You were under 5BBs for one of 'em.

[/ QUOTE ]

...speaking of desperation... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Phil Van Sexton]

You cannot really afford to pay the blinds again and hope to make the money with 7 people left, so you are right to take some chances here.

When deciding to push with a questionable holding and a small stack, I like to look at the stack size of the BB and the other players to my left. I find this is a better way to calculate folding equity than counting how many BBs I have.

The BB has 1165. This is actually pretty good for you. He has enough chips where folding isn't going to kill him. On the other hand, if he calls and loses, he will be crippled. If he had more or less chips, your folding equity would be worse.

After looking at the BB, you can look at the other players to your left: 805, 1125, 1330. The 805 is short, but he didnt post anything and is likely to wait for a better spot if he has a marginal hand (ie Q9). The other 2 have medium stacks and the added risk of players still to act behind them. They can't afford to make a spite call.

Normally, there aren't 7 people left at 100/200 in a 10/1. In addition, the chips are very evenly distributed. There aren't any big stacks to your left that can afford to police your steals, and there aren't any short stacks in the blinds that will be forced to call with lots of hands.

Because of these unusual circumstances, you have more folding equity than you normally would with 3.5xBB. You have to push here or on the next hand (when the BB has 1095).

The fact that you've pushed twice in a row is a bit concerning. I'd probably take this hand off and hope to get a clean steal attempt on the next hand

98o isn't much better than a random hand, and taking a hand off might improve your image slightly.

[RobGW]

Scuba,

If hero goes through the blinds one time he will only have $400 left. Doubling up at that point is too late. I would rather gamble now and if I win I have $1400 and a little breathing room. If I lose oh well, I was not likely to make the money anyway. It being 7 handed makes it less likely you can make the money. Sure your opponents may knock each other out but that is not guaranteed. The longer you wait the less FE you have and the less it matters when you do double up. I agree it is not the best of circumstances but I think folding and waiting is worse.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I feel like I need to clarify my use of the word "desperation."

[/ QUOTE ]

You're overanalyzing, and I think I still disagree. Desperation is still emotional, like it or not.


[/ QUOTE ]

I refuse to justify a (perhaps poorly conveyed) metaphor. If my example of opening from the button in a ring game didn't clarify, nothing will. The below quote...

[ QUOTE ]
You are seeking ways to increase your stack, rather than ways to increase your opportunity, or increasing $EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

...is complete speculation on your part. "Desperation" was obviously a poor choice of words since it's got us hung up on emotion, and it's caused you to make the above speculation.

The Point

I contend that there can be a time when a -CEV decision can be the only +$EV decision in tournament. Whether the situation described in the OP is one of these times seems to be the subject of debate here.

[Raiser]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure your opponents may knock each other out but that is not guaranteed.

[/ QUOTE ]

And even if they do knock each other out, the winner of those hands is now in much, much better shape than Hero. I think you have to look for a double up/steal situation before your next trip through the blinds.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]

Does it matter that I'm at only 2.5BBs and I probably need some luck to finish ITM anyway?


[/ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I'm missing something but aren't you at 3.5 BBs here? I think waiting for a slightly better hand (or for the memory of your steals to fade) is ok here.

[Scuba Chuck]

I can be persuaded that my point is wrong, or that I am looking at a particular scenario with too tight an opinion, but...

[ QUOTE ]
I contend that there can be a time when a -CEV decision can be the only +$EV decision in tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know of anytime a -CEV is ever +$EV.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I'm missing something but aren't you at 3.5 BBs here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you know that answer to that question.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
I can be persuaded that my point is wrong, or that I am looking at a particular scenario with too tight an opinion, but...

[ QUOTE ]
I contend that there can be a time when a -CEV decision can be the only +$EV decision in tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know of anytime a -CEV is ever +$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

7 players left, blinds 100/200. Your AA all-in pre-flop just got cracked by a slightly smaller stack. You have say 100 chips left, and you are dealt something like 44 UTG.

Throwing in the last 100 is -CEV here and you will probably lose right now, but it's gonna take luck to have a shot at the money. So yeah, you got me, it's not +$EV either but it's hard to call it -$EV as well. Now you know why I chose "desperation." It's easier to say than "the game is theoretically over for you unless you get lucky."

My OP's intent is to help paint a clearer picture of when the "the game is theoretically over for you unless you get lucky."

In this case you say "not yet, wait" and some other guys are saying "yeah pretty much." I'm just sitting here and learning more from reading each rationale. Thank you for your input. I will try to stop breeding nits for the picking.