Count'em while u Got'em

[oreogod]

Alright just need some help real quick. How many outs do u see here? The only problem I have with quickly counting the outs to this hand is my Ace overcard. Is that worth 1.5 outs, surely not the full three.

My count I get: (1.5 BD flush, 3 clean gutshot 1 out almost full on that -- 1.5 for the ace?) = almost 7 outs.


Preflop: Hero is CO with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds.

[Pov]

I would not count nearly so many outs for several reasons. What is your read on UTG? Many players limp UTG with AJ and the others could have any old Ace so your Ace is definitely worth no more than the 1.5 you are counting and with your bad kicker and only one reasonably high card on board I would call it 1 out. The backdoor flush is worth 1.5. Your straight outs are definitely not worth 4 and really not even three. When you hit your straight and it doesn't complete the flush there is still another card to make the flush. Plus your straight is a very weak one where you may already be up against a 67 or 56 type hand that is drawing to a higher straight.

So I would look at this as more like 5 outs. However, you are getting 7-1 from the pot so I might be tempted to peel off a card here depending mostly on my read on the button. If there is a good chance he will raise with two spades, the 56 or a J (or he's just frisky) then I think you didn't get a big enough piece of this board. Likewise if the blinds are check-raisers. If a couple of them are calling stations and none of them are particularly aggressive then you can probably see the turn.

[OrianasDaad]

I count all three of those gutshot outs, but not the 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, since it coordinates the board somewhat heavily against you and certainly gives someone a redraw to a better hand.

Your ace outs are worth only one out, mabye less in a large field, but if you spike one on the turn, you'll have an additional five-out draw to two-pair or trips, which will improve your hand by a fair margin.

I'd count this about 5.5 outs, which makes it a pretty easy fold with players to act behind you.