On the bubble against other short stack: Is this mandatory call??

[jdock99]

Hello. I am a cash game player. Just wanted to play some sng's for a while for a change of pace. This is a bubble situation which came up that in hindsight did not work out so well. But I wanted to check with y'all and see if this was a mandatory call (for the record I think it was but do not know)

#Game No : 1883258286
***** Hand History for Game 1883258286 *****
NL Hold'em $30 Buy-in + $3 Entry Fee Trny:11232723 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Tuesday, April 12, 02:41:22 EDT 2005
Table Table 12771 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: TrentW ( $4107 )
Seat 5: kwajkid ( $965 )
Seat 9: poohbearsy ( $1229 )
Seat 10: jaydes ( $1699 )
Trny:11232723 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to poohbearsy [ 9s 9d ]
TrentW folds.
kwajkid is all-In [965]
poohbearsy is all-In [1179]
jaydes folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 4h, 6c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8s ]
poohbearsy shows [ 9s, 9d ] a pair of nines.
kwajkid shows [ Ts, Tc ] three of a kind, tens.
poohbearsy wins 264 chips from side pot #1 with a pair of nines.
kwajkid wins 2030 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, tens.
oops
so it ends

[The Yugoslavian]

With the blinds that low? No, this call is not mandatory at all.

Yugoslav

[raptor517]

what yugo said. blinds are still really small that you can fold this. holla

[HC5831]

This situation is totally read dependant. As the others have said, you are in no way pot commited here.

If the button has been pushing all in a lot, I will call here. If I have a note on the button that he will make this play with Any ace, I will call. If I have a note that he makes this play with any pair, I will call.

It is unlikely that the button has AA-QQ, as he will want to win more than the blinds with those hands. If he has not been playing crazy I would put him on a likely range of hands of 2 paintcards or a medium pair.

So unless you have a read from previous play, this is a fold here. You do not want to get into a likely 55/45 battle here with T1200 and the blinds 50/100.

HC

[Meatmaw]

I'd to hear more opinions on this and why this a fold.

We're looking at a call of $915 into a pot of $1115.

If you put the shortstack on any pair (disregarding the possibility of someone with AA or KK raising <= 3BB, which would make it even better for you in this case), then the EV is +$200 with a return of $709 * 42/73 for your overpair and -$509 * 30/73 for his.

If you put him on any pair and any Ace, then it jumps to +$342 with the extra 64 coin-flip (55/45) hands earning you $200 on average and the extra 120 over-under card (70/30) earning you $506.

Granted if you put him further on KQ-KT (extra 48 hands at 45/55) as well, your ev drops to +$320 but I would think it would still be an automatic push.

For those of you that choose to fold here, can you explain further why that is? And perhaps suggest what hands you would, as the shortstack button have pushed all in on OR whether you're claiming that in general you don't give these other players credit for playing as you expect you yourself to?

Thanks.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
For those of you that choose to fold here, can you explain further why that is? And perhaps suggest what hands you would, as the shortstack button have pushed all in on OR whether you're claiming that in general you don't give these other players credit for playing as you expect you yourself to?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the point is that chip EV loses relevance on the bubble. A +CEV play becomes -$EV if you can still finish ITM by passing it up.*

Even if you are giving credit to the other players to be exploiting perceived fold equity and pushing crap at you, you STILL may be better off waiting 'til you can be the one pushing crap.

(*) EDIT: And it doesn't have to be the bubble. A +CEV call early in the game that puts you all-in, say on a flush draw with two cards to come, puts you out of the tournament 2 out of 3 times. Better to exploit your edge as a better player later than risk busting out now.

[jdock99]

Meatmaw, my reasoning is the same as yours, which is why I thought it was an obvious call. I did not have a read on this player, but as you all noticed the blinds were still very low and we were already 4 handed, so table was playing very fast and he was not one of the fast players (neither was I), which was why we were the short stacks in the first place. Given this, maybe it was more prudent to wait and see how things developed before risking my whole stack in a small +EV situation, especially considering the flat payout structure, which would favor survival over trying to double up. This would be the only reason I could think of to not call, as I would figure a call would be marginally +EV without taking survival factors into consideration.

[Meatmaw]

That is a good point. I have been thinking about how to factor in the change of value in these equations as a function of the tournament structure (increasing blinds, payout structure) of these games.

However, does chip EV really lose relevance on the bubble, or is it more a behavior side effect that we should be exploiting? I understand that sometimes in extreme cases where knocking out someone may be assured, you'd step out of a +EV situation, but especially in bubble cases where most people are tightening because there is an over-valuing of placing ITM, doesn't such a case warrant us focusing our sights on longer term (i.e. 1st place) goals and playing for higher returns? This doesn't appear to be an extreme out-in-next-round type desperation situation for anyone.

I'm comfortable with passing up +EV situations in the first 3 levels of play, but this sounds like a situation where you also gain quite a bit of leverage by increasing your stack to a respectable size where you can make 3BB bets w/o compelling an all-in from yourself.

[The Venetian]

Interesting situation. Shows just how powerful that big raise from the SB can be if it's making 99 seriously consider folding.

I just don't think that, without a surer read, there's a range of hands he could have that would make me fold. Using my homemade version of Eastbay's program I have at work (pencil and paper), I calculated that you would need to be a 51.3% or better against his range for this to be a +$EV play.

Running a few sims through PokerStove, I couldn't come up with a reasonable range that was restrictive enough to make folding correct. For example, he's a 61.8% favorite against any pair, any ace, any broadway. If I were the SB, I'd do this with any two random cards and he'd be a 72.0% favorite.

As a 61.8% favorite in this spot in a $30 SNG, that's worth +$7.95 in $EV over folding.

As a 72.0% favorite, calling's worth +$16.05 in $EV over folding.

For $1 or $2 in EV, I might think twice, but I don't think you can give up this much.

Feel free to check the math...I'll probably do it when I get home myself, but this looks like a very clear call unless you have some reason to put this guy on an abnormally tight pushing range.

[Nottom]

Well lets look at some ICM numbers for this spot.

Folding leaves you with about 19.59% Prize Equity
Losing leaves you at 5.47%
and Winning gives you 32.34%

If you assume the BB will always fold, then you need to win just over 52.5% of the time to make this a breakeven call.

x = chance of winning for breakeven $EV
19.59 = 32.34x + 5.47(1-x)

x = 52.55%

If hes been pretty aggressive up to this point, you can probably call. Even against a fairly tight range of hands like AA-66, A8o, Axs, KJ+, QJs you are still a 55% favorite and against a bigger range (Any A, Pair, Broadway) you can easily be a nearly 60% favorite.

But you still have a player behind you. He going to wake up with a calling hand here about 4% of the time after you call (AK, JJ+) and will likely call the original raise with a wider range than that. This should make you less likely to call than the heads-up numbers should indicate.

So it basically all comes down to reads. If button had been stealing a lot, you should call. If hes been pretty tame upto this point tend to lay it down.

I actually expected the numbers to lean much more towards folding here when I started, but a call is often going to be correct after chugging some of the numbers. Basically this call just comes down to what you think of your opponents.

*Note: if you were the guy with 965 chips you need a significantly bigger edge to call (almost a 55% edge heads-up) so folding would usually be the better play.

[The Venetian]

For the record, these calcs are correct. I misread the original post as the OP being the BB and the SB raising all-in. It makes it closer, but probably still a call, given no clear read.

[HC5831]

[ QUOTE ]
If hes been pretty aggressive up to this point, you can probably call. Even against a fairly tight range of hands like AA-66, A8o, Axs, KJ+, QJs you are still a 55% favorite and against a bigger range (Any A, Pair, Broadway) you can easily be a nearly 60% favorite.

But you still have a player behind you. He going to wake up with a calling hand here about 4% of the time after you call (AK, JJ+) and will likely call the original raise with a wider range than that. This should make you less likely to call than the heads-up numbers should indicate.

So it basically all comes down to reads. If button had been stealing a lot, you should call. If hes been pretty tame upto this point tend to lay it down.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is there an echo in here? People calling here is why SNG's are so profitable.

HC

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there an echo in here? People calling here is why SNG's are so profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I think against most players you should be calling. Given the read he posted later in the thread (or lack thereof, which to me tends to indicate the guy wasn't playing many hands) however, this seems like a fold.

[HC5831]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually I think against most players you should be calling. Given the read he posted later in the thread (or lack thereof, which to me tends to indicate the guy wasn't playing many hands) however, this seems like a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now your changing the situation with the vs most players. This particular situation is clearly still a fold.

HC

[Nottom]

Do you really think a typical opponent is pushing with less than AA-66, A8o, Axs, KJ+, QJs here?

[jdock99]

No, but assuming these hands, I am a small favorite over most of these hands, a big dog to a few of them, and a big favorite to a very small amount of them (For much more detailed analysis, see the original response to this post. If I lose I still have some chips (300 and something), and if I win I am in the $$ with a big enough stack for some FE.

That being said, after reading the responses to this post I no longer believe I made the correct tactical play because of the payout structure, the relatively low blinds, and the table dynamic. That being said, if this was a winner take all satellite I think I have to take my chances with this hand in an attempt to get some chips to win.

[HC5831]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think a typical opponent is pushing with less than AA-66, A8o, Axs, KJ+, QJs here?


[/ QUOTE ]

I already stated what I put the guy on.

HC

[Nottom]

Given your range (66-JJ, AT+, KT+, QT+, JT+) its a call.

I think hes likely pushing more than that (see my range).