Me vs Scotty Nguyen

[PokerForMath]

I played in the Bellagio $2000 today and sat to Scotty's left for five hours. He busted me on this hand when I tried to make a play, looking for thoughts on Scotty and on plays in general.

It's small blind vs big blind, blinds are 300/600 with a $50 ante about 60 people out of the original 300 left. He completes, I raise $1000 more with Ks Js, he calls (I had about $9000 in chips, he had about $20,000 ... . The flop is ten high and he checks to me. I check. The turn is a queen. He checks, I bet $1300, he calls. The river is a three, pairing the board and he checks. I move in for about $7000 more. He calls with Q8, one pair.

Thoughts?

[MLG]

I'm not sure about how he played it, but I hate how you played it. You really need to bet the flop here. If you want to take this pot without a hand, the streets to do it are the flop and turn. When you shove all your chips in there at the end its generally a big hand or a bluff, and its hard to see what really big hand you would have here.

[zaxx19]

[ QUOTE ]
You really need to bet the flop here. If you want to take this pot without a hand, the streets to do it are the flop and turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going to print this out, laminate it, and stick it to my computer.

I always seem to go broke on hands like these later in tournies. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Iconoclastic]

Push preflop.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
Push preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[Mammux]

He had two pair.

-Magnus

[Malachii]

I think pushing's fine, considering you're up against [censored] Scottie Nguyen. I would think that pros would be considerably more leery than amateurs about getting into race situations because they lose their ability to outplay you and accumulate chips with little risk. Plus, pushing negates Scottie's considerable postflop advantage - the longer the hand goes on, the more his superior play asserts itself.

My two cents...

[fnord_too]

If I am the pre flop aggressor and it is checked to me HU, I lead almost always (probably >95%).

[schwza]

your stack size isn't exactly clear, but it looks like you have 9k after raising 1k, so you have 10k before the raise. there is 1.7k in the middle. i think raising 1k more is too small. you're pricing him in with a lot of hands, so you're not narrowing the range at all.

i'd raise another 1.5k. i'm guessing nguyen will complete a wide range here and you want to raise enough to push him off junk. you'll still have enough left that you comfortably fold to a reraise.

i think pushing is also a viable option. your stack is only 6x the pot, and not playing a hand post-flop against a WSOP champ is never a horrible thing.

as it was played, i agree - bet the flop. not sure about the river bluff - i almost never make these kinds of plays personally.

[PokerForMath]

What do you mean he had two-pair? Were you there and saying I mis-read the board? If so, are you saying that he called only b/c he had two pair and would have folded had he only had one pair, weak kicker?

[PokerForMath]

My thoughts on the play. First, I think either he has an uncanny ability to read these situations and fold (he did make some huge laydowns earlier), I misread the boards and he had two-pair in which case we could argue he might have folded with a mere pair and I just made the move at the wrong time, or he is vulnerable to this play when I have a big hand.

Consider this. Next time I play Scotty heads up, if the board comes this way and but I have KQ. I am still going to check the flop. I am still going to make a decent bet on the turn. And, I am still going to move in on the river. And, unless I have a tell that I don't know about, he is still going to call with his one pair and I will double up.

Also, I think one person said just shove pre-flop. I think that's a different play. The difference is that Scotty had already donated over 2000 to the pot. There was serious money there to take and while I was not short stacked, I needed to accumulate chips. It was 30 minutes into the round and I felt it was time to grow my chips. Now, maybe Scotty is the wrong guy, period, to try to take chips from if you saw the WPT season three where he called Johnny Juanda's all in with something like A8? Maybe he just won't fold big moves on principle.

[SharkBait]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you mean he had two-pair? Were you there and saying I mis-read the board? If so, are you saying that he called only b/c he had two pair and would have folded had he only had one pair, weak kicker?

[/ QUOTE ]

Two pair = QQ33. You said the board paired 3s.

[mts]

it looks like you played it like an overpair. he made a great call, thats all there is to it. Maybe you had a tell :P

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
it looks like you played it like an overpair. he made a great call, thats all there is to it. Maybe you had a tell :P

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not really how most people play an overpair unless they are looking to go broke.

I don't think Scotty's call on the river was anything special. Let's break this hand down and analyze each street:

pf. 500 in antes (assuming 10 players, maybe it is only 450 or even 400). Folded around to Scotty who completes, puts 300 into a pot with 1400, so now there is 1700 in it.

Hero Raises 1000, which is pretty odd. Pot is now 2700 and Scotty calls getting 2.7:1.

So is the raise to 1K a sweetener with a big pair? An attempted steal? Value bet from a good hand? All possible at this point.

Flop comes ten high (I am assuming ragged rainbow). Check Check. Ok, we haven't really ruled anything out yet, though small pocket pairs (not set up) are looking less likely.

Turn comes a queen. Scotty now has tpwk and checks. Hero bets 1300 into a pot of 3700. So scotty is getting 5:1.3 on his call. Sure, gotta call there, but he can still be way behind. Hero can put Scotty on two cards that are not drawing dead to a queen. That's about it. He's getting almost 4:1 with hero having 7K behind he may be able to get, so you cannot rule out hands like gut shots, middle pair and possibly even overs.

River comes a 3, pairing the board. That counterfeits some two pair hands, but really does not change much.

Scotty checks and Hero pushes for 7K into a 6.3K pot.

Stop. What just happened there. Why the over bet after those small bets? Does Hero have a sneaky 3 (A3s maybe?). Has he been slowplaying a set and fishing for a three? Why would he expect Scotty to call if he had a big hand? A big hand would like to get some more value out of this hand, and Scotty has not exactly been oozing strength. Could this be a marginal hand like KQ that is betting for value? That is a very bad play IMO here, since there are only a few hands that call you that don't beat you. So just what the hell is up with that bet out of nowhere?

So Scotty thinks either he has a huge hand and just got incredibly lucky that I have a queen or he is just trying to buy this pot. I am getting almost 2:1 on my call, and have almost 20BB if I call and lose. Scotty has got to believe he is ahead more than 1 time in 3 here. He's probably thinking he is ahead a lot more than half the time, because the bet just does not make sense.

To me this is an easy call. For those who say "That's why you overbet with a monster there, becuase you will arouse suspicion and get bad calls," remember, this only gets called by a hand that can beat a bluff (like a pocket pair less than Q's). So, most of the time you overbet with a big hand you get nothing. You cannot put Scotty on anything other than a hand that is big enough to call small bets getting great pot odds pre flop and on the turn.

[transmitt]

Should have checked behind baby!

[schwza]

great post.

[Tim H]

check pf or push
after that check/fold
You have nothing invested in this pot pf and he's letting you see the flop with a marginal hand with "monster" potential for free. Take it and fold unimproved.

not to sound rude but are you honestly a better player than him? If not, why are u trying to put a move on him with nothing. It seems the correct line would be to trap him putting a move on you when you have a good holding.

[mts]

[ QUOTE ]
That's not really how most people play an overpair unless they are looking to go broke.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So Scotty thinks either he has a huge hand and just got incredibly lucky that I have a queen or he is just trying to buy this pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with both points. I was basically saying your 2nd quote above.

I mean, he was trying to represent a monster preflop. Then had such a big hand that let scotty have a free card. Then wanted a little more chips, saw that he'd call a small bet so went allin on the river when it protects him against 2 pair. He is representing a badly played overpair or a bluff. (to me)

your analysis is very good however.

[Scooterdoo]

Let's look at the way you both played it.

First Scotty:

It looks very standard. He doesn't have much and wants to outplay you post flop so simply calls. I'm sure some significant % of the time he'll raise you trying to steal, but since you're short-stacked he might be a bit leary of putting in a raise, having you push with a so so hand like Ax and then being forced to call based on pot odds with a dog hand like Q8 which stinks against most hands so his simple complete seems very reasonable. The flop looks fairly tame so he checks. I guess one could argue that he should make a strong bet here, but nothing wrong with checking. On the turn he hits top pair. He is pretty sure he has you so is probably trying to let you bet it for him which you do -- if he bets himself he figures you will fold and he gets nothing. You do his dirty work and he just calls. On the river he again feels he has the best hand so lets you bet it. He isn't too concerned with your all-in given that if you really had a better hand than he has you would be betting for value hoping for a call. He played it just fine; nothing fancy, just very solid.

Your play: Don't like it.

Preflop: You have a strong hand heads-up. The pot is nice as is. He has shown weakness with his simple call. Your 1k bet is very weak. He has to call it. Now if you are doing this to simply build the pot, you must bet strong at a tame flop which you didn't. I think you either check preflop to see if you can trap him with a great flop (since he's aggressive, he will likely bet at a K or J high flop and you can call him down) or you just push preflop and take your chances -- your hand will play pretty well heads-up with most hands that he was likely calling with, so even if he calls your push, you have a reasonable chance of doubling up and getting back into the tournament.

Once the flop comes 10 high you either make a strong bet right there after he checks or just check it down unless something good comes. Your 1300 turn bet is meaningless because he's going to call you with most anything given the pot odds.

The river bet is your biggest mistake in my opinion. At this point you just turn over your cards and a good percentage of the time you win. True he could have a T or a worse pair, but he's so aggressive that he might also call you with any pair so you're beat no matter what. Like I said before, your push tells him that you're weak because if you were strong wouldn't you make a value bet here?

[tdp]

I played with Scotty for about 4 hours at the Bay 101 Shooting Star and I did not see one bluff get past him.His intuition is incredible.He's not afraid to gamble either.

[LLKOOLK1]

Fnord_too broke it down perfectly. You gave scotty the odds to make this call from the outset of the hand. The board painted a pretty clear picture that his queens were probably the best hand, and the overbet on the river soldified that.
I know it was said by one of the other posters as well....this is scotty nyguen....not much is going to get by him. It wasnt a fantastic call, just simply a hand that you played exactly how he would have liked you to play it. I really like a strong bet on the flop.

[sdplayerb]

so you should risk 9K to win 2K or so?
Brilliant.
He easily could be slowplaying a big hand.

[PokerForMath]

Awesome post, my friend. Great analysis. I completely agree with it. I would add that Scotty also had more to gain from being right than to lose from being wrong. He was running good, fully of confidence (he made a big laydown earlier and lost half his stack but got pocket fives and then a set to win a huge pot only 1/2 hour later. He told me "I never worry, I always know I am coming back."). He figures if he picks me off, great, if not, he still has tons of chips, and, well he is running good.

[Iconoclastic]

[ QUOTE ]
so you should risk 9K to win 2K or so?
Brilliant.
He easily could be slowplaying a big hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

By your logic why raise KK against Scotty? After all he easily could be slowplaying aces. Without a specific read you're just playing scared.

Winning more than a fifth of your stack is significant, especially when KJs stands a good chance against a random hand. About 80% of the time Scotty'll fold anyways, especially against someone who he doesn't think will outplay him.

[PokerForMath]

[ QUOTE ]
not to sound rude but are you honestly a better player than him? If not, why are u trying to put a move on him with nothing. It seems the correct line would be to trap him putting a move on you when you have a good holding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, of course realistically we have to go with Scotty on the who is better front, but that didn't figure into my thinking. At the time I thought that he had a marginal hand (I was right) and therefore would fold (I was wrong). I would say that my analysis of the situation left out a couple of critical elements which were pointed out above. The elements of any play are (a) what does your opponent have, (b) what does he think I have, and (c) what will he do with this info. I did not spend enough time on (b) and (c), clearly. Had I, I would have thought "I know he probably has a weak hand, and he is probably thinking that I missed. If I make a big bet he will think that most likely I am making a move, but maybe I have a big hand, but he only needs to be right 1 in 3 times to make this a profitable call considering losing the call won't cripple his stack. Moreover, he likes to call big bets because it improves the chances that he won't get bluffed at, especially if he picks off my bluff. Chances are not good this bluff will succeed."

How's that?

[i wanna be me]

[ QUOTE ]
Winning more than a fifth of your stack is significant, especially when KJs stands a good chance against a random hand. About 80% of the time Scotty'll fold anyways, especially against someone who he doesn't think will outplay him.

[/ QUOTE ]

um........ok

am I the only one that thinks this is absurd logic?

[mts]

well, the math obviously implies that it isn't, that's if his percentage is correct. The only part i can see being absurd is commenting on what scotty is thinking.

[i wanna be me]

[ QUOTE ]
well, the math obviously implies that it isn't, that's if his percentage is correct. The only part i can see being absurd is commenting on what scotty is thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry - I was meaning the "pushing cause 1/5 of your stack is significant and scotty will fold 80% of the time" line. Why not bet like 1200 instead of pushing?

[PrayingMantis]

I dont think you have to be Scotty Nguyen in order to make this river call here. IMO you played this hand in a way that makes is pretty easy to put you on a hand Q8 beats, that's without even having any specific read on you from previous hands, which I'm sure SN had.

If you're going to make moves like these, thay have to be much more believable (i.e, following through, which you didn't make on the flop, raising more PF, etc). And it is defintely -EV to pull them against a top pro. Also, Don't be so sure he will call you here if you take EXACLY the same line with some hand that beats his, because no doubt he is good enough to sense the difference.

[2005]

I'm presuming this is a joke?

Gavin

[2005]

this part of this thread is quite ridiculous

Gavin

[KenProspero]

I'm going to approach this somewhat differently than you did.

If I'm playing against Scotty Nguyen, my assumption is that he's better than I am. In fact, he's MUCH better than I am.

Though I may catch him on any one hand, if we play enough hands against each other, he's going to have all my chips.

Were it me playing, I'd figure I have one and only advantage, sitting to his left. He's betting before me almost all the time, therefore, I can get out of his way unless I have a monster.

I would not bluff this man, I would not get cute with this man and I'd probably fold hands against him that I'd play against most mere mortals.

If I get a hand I'm willing to play for all my chips, push em in.

My guess is that I'm due for some flaming for this response, but I honestly believe I can't out think or out play a world class player at this stage in my development. Surviving the pro and making my chips against the others seems the only way to survive in this tournament.

With respect to the specific hand.

Pre-flop, either check or bet it hard. Post flop -- unless I hit something, I'm outta there to any significant pressure.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Push preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the preflop push. With KJs, you are only in trouble against AA-JJ, AK, AQ, KQ, and AJ. Since your opponent just completed, the only of those hands he is likely to have are AA-QQ. There is 1700 in the pot and you have 9000, so pushing in not that much of an overbet. The 1000 raise is kind of silly, although you probably do have the best hand and position and it could set you up to win the pot on the flop. If you raise 3000 preflop, you are pretty much pot committed. You have position, but you are playing a better player and you are outchipped.

Since you represented a big pair preflop, you might want to follow up by betting the flop.

I agree the push on the river was bad. For one thing, you generally don't want to bluff when you don't know if you are ahead. You could be ahead with king high. I don't agree with some posters that this bluff couldn't have worked. Scotty, could easily have have folded second or third pair to this play.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it looks like you played it like an overpair. he made a great call, thats all there is to it. Maybe you had a tell :P

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not really how most people play an overpair unless they are looking to go broke.

I don't think Scotty's call on the river was anything special. Let's break this hand down and analyze each street:

pf. 500 in antes (assuming 10 players, maybe it is only 450 or even 400). Folded around to Scotty who completes, puts 300 into a pot with 1400, so now there is 1700 in it.

Hero Raises 1000, which is pretty odd. Pot is now 2700 and Scotty calls getting 2.7:1.

So is the raise to 1K a sweetener with a big pair? An attempted steal? Value bet from a good hand? All possible at this point.

Flop comes ten high (I am assuming ragged rainbow). Check Check. Ok, we haven't really ruled anything out yet, though small pocket pairs (not set up) are looking less likely.

Turn comes a queen. Scotty now has tpwk and checks. Hero bets 1300 into a pot of 3700. So scotty is getting 5:1.3 on his call. Sure, gotta call there, but he can still be way behind. Hero can put Scotty on two cards that are not drawing dead to a queen. That's about it. He's getting almost 4:1 with hero having 7K behind he may be able to get, so you cannot rule out hands like gut shots, middle pair and possibly even overs.

River comes a 3, pairing the board. That counterfeits some two pair hands, but really does not change much.

Scotty checks and Hero pushes for 7K into a 6.3K pot.

Stop. What just happened there. Why the over bet after those small bets? Does Hero have a sneaky 3 (A3s maybe?). Has he been slowplaying a set and fishing for a three? Why would he expect Scotty to call if he had a big hand? A big hand would like to get some more value out of this hand, and Scotty has not exactly been oozing strength. Could this be a marginal hand like KQ that is betting for value? That is a very bad play IMO here, since there are only a few hands that call you that don't beat you. So just what the hell is up with that bet out of nowhere?

So Scotty thinks either he has a huge hand and just got incredibly lucky that I have a queen or he is just trying to buy this pot. I am getting almost 2:1 on my call, and have almost 20BB if I call and lose. Scotty has got to believe he is ahead more than 1 time in 3 here. He's probably thinking he is ahead a lot more than half the time, because the bet just does not make sense.

To me this is an easy call. For those who say "That's why you overbet with a monster there, becuase you will arouse suspicion and get bad calls," remember, this only gets called by a hand that can beat a bluff (like a pocket pair less than Q's). So, most of the time you overbet with a big hand you get nothing. You cannot put Scotty on anything other than a hand that is big enough to call small bets getting great pot odds pre flop and on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

ummm...thread over.

[augie00]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, Don't be so sure he will call you here if you take EXACLY the same line with some hand that beats his, because no doubt he is good enough to sense the difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't that a scary thought, knowing that if the hero had AA here that Scotty might have been able to lay it down, just because his intuition is so great?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
ummm...thread over.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that is good analysis, but I thought I had some additional points not covered by it. I hope you don't mind postings after the Gods have spoken.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't that a scary thought, knowing that if the hero had AA here that Scotty might have been able to lay it down, just because his intuition is so great?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, it is scary, but I am positive that most non-pro players will not look/act/behave the same with a big pocekt pair as opposed to KJ at such a spot, regardless of their betting pattern. Some other hands that beat Q8 might be somewhat more difficult to recognize if played this way, probably, and might make it a tougher laydown for SN. Bottom line is, I don't think it makes much sense to try and "outplay" such a player without a very good reason.

[HiatusOver]

So are u saying that pushing all in pre-flop is a horrible play?

[betgo]

I think he was referring to the discussion of whether Scotty would call the river push if you had pocket aces.

I wouldn't need a hand as good as KJs to push preflop. You want to keep it simple against a top player and he has shown weakness by completing. I would almost push with any two.

Cloutier and McEvoy (I know a controversial source) in "Tournament Poker Practice Hands" give an example of where a big stack open completes and you push from the BB with 72o. They say it will be very difficult to win the hand if you see the flop with 72o. The big stack probably doesn't have anything since he completed and will probably fold. If he calls, you probably have a 1/3 chance of winning the hand against two higher cards.

[MLG]

KJ though has a much better chance of winning postflop against an open limper though than 72o. I don't think pushing is a completely horrible play, but it aint that great either.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
KJ though has a much better chance of winning postflop against an open limper though than 72o. I don't think pushing is a completely horrible play, but it aint that great either.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think a raise is much better than a check. how much do you raise? do you call a push?

[MLG]

1500 fold to a push. Then I pretty much always bet the flop about 2000 or so.

edit: i fold to a preflop push.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
KJ though has a much better chance of winning postflop against an open limper though than 72o. I don't think pushing is a completely horrible play, but it aint that great either.

[/ QUOTE ]

KJs is easily dominated by strong hands, but against the open complete, you are probably ahead. You are about even against a pair, somewhat behind against Ax, and about a 2-1 dog against various big hands your opponent is unlikely to have.

A suited gapper would be a good hand to see the flop with if the money was deeper. Maybe you can extract more money if you see the flop. However, against a world class player you are better off keeping thing simple, unless you are looking to post on 2+2 how you got busted out by Scotty Nguyen.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
1500 fold to a push. Then I pretty much always bet the flop about 2000 or so.

edit: i fold to a preflop push.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks. that sounds about right to me.

[HiatusOver]

By making it 1500 more u are still giving Scotty better than 2:1 on his call. Are u comfortable with that? Also how rare do u think I a limp-re-raise here is not gonna be a huge hand? I have a bad habit of not always giving someone credit for AA-QQ, AK when I probably should...do u think that would be the case here?

[HiatusOver]

BUMP, I am not sure if we got a good answer on what to do pre-flop here

[mcteecho]

Nice analysis fnord.

[Temp Hutter]

[ QUOTE ]
I played with Scotty for about 4 hours at the Bay 101 Shooting Star and I did not see one bluff get past him.His intuition is incredible.He's not afraid to gamble either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I can attest to this as well. Scotty's intuition is scary. He put me in my place at the Taj last year when I tried to get a bluff past him and he moved in and made me muck. There were times that I swear he did not look at his cards, but just played the person and did it very well.

[metaphor]

the answer is obvious. scotty should not be on your left for 5 hours. you should have knocked him out long before you got into this terrible situation.

[HiatusOver]

Not to be too much of a knob slobber Temp but I think u played quite well at Foxwoods and am psyched that you have been posting in this forum. Please keep contributing, I bet you it will be a positive for both u and the forum.