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GrunchCan

04-12-2005, 12:06 AM

Here's your chance. Tear me a new one.

This is a great table.

I think UTG+3 is a 2+2er, and I think I know who. If you know this is you, and you want to be recognized, chime up.

UTG1 is terrible. Very loose PF, I have seen him call 2 cold with T7o, I swear. Postflop he is generally passive, but he does run a few odd bluffs at times.

MP2 is just as loose-passive as UTG1. They are practically twins. MP2 does get more bluffy however. I've seen him checkraise the turn with 22 in his hand and 3 broadway cards on the board. There pot was multiway, and it was very clear that more than 1 person had a big piece.

The CO is new, I don't know him.

The button is even looser than the other 2, and even more passive postflop.

Here goes:

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls, CO caps, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (15 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (19 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets, BB calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 21 BB

Shillx

04-12-2005, 12:22 AM

The flop bet is bad, but you know that already. The flop call seems to be correct here, but let's do some math. We will assume that you will pay one bet on the turn if you don't hit the straight:

EV = -2.5 BB * .835 + 16.5 BB * .165 = .64 BB

EV 2 bets on the turn = -3.5 BB * .835 + 19.5 BB * .165 = .3 BB

So yup this hand looks good after the flop bet. Notice that this doesn't include implied odds so you can tack on some more EV to these figures. You can also win the pot in other ways (running flush or running queens or whatever) so that helps as well. Of course there are negative implied odds issues here as well but when the dust stettles these calls will be correct, even if you expect to pay a double bet on the turn.

Brad

Ringo_Mojo

04-12-2005, 12:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Here's your chance. Tear me a new one.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok i will comment every street.

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even with the two LPs limping i don't see raising this hand, and can barely justify calling it.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (14 SB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls, CO caps, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can agree with this play a more then the PF raise, you showed strength and it was limped to you so you bet. The pot's huge by the time it gets back around to you 3-bet so you've pretty much gotta call with your draws.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (15 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok the pot's huge, you improved but with all the flop action you have to assume that your Qs are beaten. So calling down and looking for a K on the turn seems appropriate.

[ QUOTE ]
River: (19 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, CO bets, BB calls, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 21 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, the pot is still huge, you've got a pair that's almost surely beat, calling down seems in order. Its a crying call, but it seems like you've gotta make it. Is 5% chance that both BB and CO went nutty with weak pairs too optimistic?
/images/graemlins/smile.gif

GrunchCan

04-12-2005, 12:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The flop bet is bad

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that was a debatable point. I thought (and still think) that I had more than 15% equity. You don't?

ArturiusX

04-12-2005, 12:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Even with the two LPs limping i don't see raising this hand, and can barely justify calling it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think its the perfect play to make a swipe at the button vs two likely dominated hands. QTo is probably the limit for what I'd try with, but why play tight when you can learn so much from playing these cards? 18 VPIP or lower doesnt teach you anything for mine.

I don't like the flop bet, from there I think its ok. Why call the turn if you're going to fold the river though?

Entity

04-12-2005, 12:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I don't like the flop bet, from there I think its ok. Why call the turn if you're going to fold the river though?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you have odds to draw, and you didn't get there?

ArturiusX

04-12-2005, 12:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I don't like the flop bet, from there I think its ok. Why call the turn if you're going to fold the river though?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you have odds to draw, and you didn't get there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Duh. I've taken 2 weeks off, what can I say /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Fishlips_Jones

04-12-2005, 12:48 AM

I thought your Uncle needed money. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Fishlips

GrunchCan

04-12-2005, 12:55 AM

Thanks for the comments.

[ QUOTE ]
Even with the two LPs limping i don't see raising this hand, and can barely justify calling it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't play because QTo is such a great hand. I played becasue it tends to be better than the kinds of hands the limpers are likely to come with. I want to take this hand against as few people as possible - preferably just the limpers. Calling therefore can't be right. Folding isn't bad, certianly. But I think I can outplay these 2 postflop, so its +EV for me to play it. Therefore I raise.
[ QUOTE ]
you showed strength and it was limped to you so you bet

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have enough fold equity to make this kind of follow-through play. There are too many people involved. That's not why I bet the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
Is 5% chance that both BB and CO went nutty with weak pairs too optimistic?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I think it is much too optimistic. I'd say there's pretty much no way I have the best hands here. Maybe 1 time in 200.

GrunchCan

04-12-2005, 12:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I thought your Uncle needed money. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Fishlips

[/ QUOTE ]

He got his money. Now I need mine. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

GrunchCan

04-12-2005, 10:58 AM

davelin

04-12-2005, 11:06 AM

The pre-flop raise is aggressive IMO but you had reads and took a chance, too bad it didn't buy you the Button and get you isolated against the two in front of you.

Post-flop, I'm going to go with everyone else and say besides the flop bet everything else is fine. In one of your posts you asked if you had 15% equity to make your bet. Maybe but that's dependent on callers no? If you reasonably can only expect 3-4 callers to come with you, your equity has to reflect this no?

GrunchCan

04-12-2005, 11:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The pre-flop raise is aggressive IMO but you had reads and took a chance, too bad it didn't buy you the Button and get you isolated against the two in front of you.

Post-flop, I'm going to go with everyone else and say besides the flop bet everything else is fine. In one of your posts you asked if you had 15% equity to make your bet. Maybe but that's dependent on callers no? If you reasonably can only expect 3-4 callers to come with you, your equity has to reflect this no?

[/ QUOTE ]

When the CO, and then the Btn coldcalled my PFR, and then the SB called, I said to myself, "Well, that didn't work at all!"

Good point about the number of callers. I figured everyone would call; maybe that's optimistic.

flopwell

04-12-2005, 11:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I don't have enough fold equity to make this kind of follow-through play. There are too many people involved. That's not why I bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Help a bad player wanting to be better out. Why Did you bet the flop?

tiltaholic

04-12-2005, 11:20 AM

hey

i'm not man enough to raise it up pf.
i see what you were trying to do, but if button is super loose, i don't like playing QTo against 3 others. but, mabe button folds, and i like it more...so, i don't hate the pf raise.

i do know that i hate the flop bet. but after that i like the hand. bummer. would have been nice to turn a ten. work on that for next time.

GrunchCan

04-12-2005, 11:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I don't have enough fold equity to make this kind of follow-through play. There are too many people involved. That's not why I bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Help a bad player wanting to be better out. Why Did you bet the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet the flop becasue I felt I had an equity edge. Weather or not this is in fact true is probably what's being currently debated.

grjr

04-12-2005, 11:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think UTG+3 is a 2+2er, and I think I know who. If you know this is you, and you want to be recognized, chime up.

UTG1 is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm UTG1 should I chime up also or should I just keep that to myself?

gvibes

04-12-2005, 11:44 AM

I agree that the pf raise is pretty aggro, and even given your reads I'd like slightly better cards to pull it off (QJo, KTo). However, I don't think it's bad.

I personally would never bet the flop. If you bet, and everyone calls, you may have the equity to pull it off, but even at a passive table, with an ace on the board and a broadway-ey flop, it's likely getting raised somewhere along the line.

GrunchCan

04-12-2005, 11:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think UTG+3 is a 2+2er, and I think I know who. If you know this is you, and you want to be recognized, chime up.

UTG1 is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

You should definitely chime up too.

If I'm UTG1 should I chime up also or should I just keep that to myself?

[/ QUOTE ]

Buckmulligan

04-12-2005, 12:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop becasue I felt I had an equity edge. Weather or not this is in fact true is probably what's being currently debated.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious: do you think there is a possibility that you have the best hand? Other than the gutshot, where are you gaining your equity?

GrunchCan

04-12-2005, 12:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop becasue I felt I had an equity edge. Weather or not this is in fact true is probably what's being currently debated.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious: do you think there is a possibility that you have the best hand? Other than the gutshot, where are you gaining your equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop I feel there is basically zero chance that my hand is best.

My equity came from the fact that my SD+BDFD hand is probably worth 4-4.5 outs, which comes to almost 20% equity. With 6 opponents, this is an equity edge. If my flop bet is bad, it must be becasue I can't assume that all 6 opponents will call my flop bet. Maybe 2 will fold, in which case I have 4 opponents, and I don't have an edge.

grjr

04-12-2005, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet the flop becasue I felt I had an equity edge. Weather or not this is in fact true is probably what's being currently debated.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just curious: do you think there is a possibility that you have the best hand? Other than the gutshot, where are you gaining your equity?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop I feel there is basically zero chance that my hand is best.

My equity came from the fact that my SD+BDFD hand is probably worth 4-4.5 outs, which comes to almost 20% equity. With 6 opponents, this is an equity edge. If my flop bet is bad, it must be becasue I can't assume that all 6 opponents will call my flop bet. Maybe 2 will fold, in which case I have 4 opponents, and I don't have an edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to give you some grief for calling 2 bets on the flop with a gutshot and a BDFD but your pot is bigger and you have more opponents than my hand so I guess I can't. /images/graemlins/wink.gif