easy turn laydown of AA?

[Sakuraba]

I had just sat down at this table and did not have GT up yet, but I recognized the villian. I could not specifically remember anything about him, but I was pretty sure he is a solid player.

With the draw heavy board, thoughts of a semibluff started flashing through my head, but I think his coldcall of my raise and subsequent call and all in probably means a pocket pair and flopped set. Thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO ($362.7)
Button ($107.65)
SB ($77.25)
BB ($97.3)
UTG ($40.85)
Hero ($98)
MP1 ($106.53)
MP2 ($94.5)
MP3 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $4, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, MP2 calls $8, BB folds.

Turn: ($28.50) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $82.5 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $126

[Allinlife]

your logic is flawed. stop talking your self into everyhand that beats you because solid players won't flat call on that kind of draw heavy board with a set or play 69s or 46s.

it looks more like AQs to me, protecting his hand against draws.

I don't know if it's better to check-call that turn or lead with full pot bet. all I know is 1/2 bet shows weakness and also gives drawers enough odds to call because 3:1 + implied odds good enough to call with.

[Sakuraba]

He almost certainly does not have 46 or 69. I think a set is pretty reasonable though.

He can't have AQ clubs because I have the A of clubs. I really thing it is pretty doubful he calls 2/3 of the pot on the flop with any other AQ. Other than the fact that a Q came off on the turn, what makes you think we has AQ?

[radioheadfan]

Looks like villian flopped his set. Good laydown.

[Allinlife]

oh sorry, I missed your suits /images/graemlins/blush.gif and if he did have AQ of clubs, I guess he would have raised you on the flop quite often.

QQ is only hand that has you crushed. I'd probably call with AA, because your weak turn bet screams weakness (missed Ak'ish) and I could see villan moving in here with very wide range of hands.

[Allinlife]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like villian flopped his set. Good laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]
if he did flat-call with set on that board, he's going broke soon.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like villian flopped his set. Good laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]
if he did flat-call with set on that board, he's going broke soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

I second that, especially with BB behind him who could legitly be drawing.

but still, some people "always slowplay big hands" despite times when they should be protected.

And the Q seems like a blank.

Im not sure if it was a good laydown,but I dont think it was bad.

[Sakuraba]

55, 77, and 88 have me exactly as crushed. I have less than 5% equity against them.

If you bet 30 on the turn do you fold to a raise? Do you bet 30 on the turn with AK in this same situation?

[Allinlife]

[ QUOTE ]
55, 77, and 88 have me exactly as crushed. I have less than 5% equity against them.

If you bet 30 on the turn do you fold to a raise? Do you bet 30 on the turn with AK in this same situation?

[/ QUOTE ]
it doesn't matter if you have 0% equity vs his "sets" because solid player or any decent player for that matter will know better not to flat call a raise with set on straight/flush draw board.

with AK, I'll bet depending on my read. I would probably lead frequently with near pot sized bets because most players let go of draws vs pot sized bets with 1 card to come. If you pot here and get raised allin, you get almost 2:1 on your money and only probable hand that has you crushed is QQ over possible semibluff/ Qxish hands so I'd call.

[Sakuraba]

When I wrote "probably solid", I really meant "probably a weak tight regular". I was trying to get across the point that he would not be calling with all random hands preflop.

Sorry for the confusion on that. I should have made it clearer. I have no reason to think he would not call with set on the flop. Practically everyone in that game does.

[MarkL444]

bet more on the turn.

[pyedog]

I'm not trying to be critical at all, I'm just trying to reinforce some NL basics for myself from these posts. I feel that for NL advice in particular, it is not enough for someone just to advise what the next action should be without giving a couple of contingencies. So I would prefer to see advise such as "Bet x% of the pot on the turn and then ?? (call/fold) to a reraise. If just called on the turn ?? (then bet/call/fold) to a river raise on a blank." Or would this kind of advice be oversimplifying things too much?

So Hero should have bet more on the turn here. I'm guessing that means 3/4 of the pot. Should he have bet the full pot leading on the flop as well? In that case the pot would have been $36 on the turn. If he bet $30 leading on the turn then he would have already invested $46 in this hand, or almost exactly half his stack.

If MP2 then reraised all-in would you suggest folding or calling? You would have 3:1 odds on the call if he was bluffing or raising with just top pair. If you assume 10% bluff frequency (as Harrington suggests) then you just need to win an additional 15% of the time when he has a lower pair/semi-bluff for calling to be profitable.

I guess I'm just trying to figure out how to get away from this hand if your opponent flops a set, assuming you don't have a great read on him (as is the case here). I think that I understand that you need to bet more on the turn so that you don't appear too weak (avoid getting shots taken at you on a reraise) and to reduce the odds for a flush draw. But doesn't this tie you to the pot? Or is that just the better alternative when compared to letting your opponents draw cheaply?