BelfastTheCat
04-11-2005, 02:55 PM
The game:
1/3 NL, 50 (and only 50) buy-in, however you can rebuy anytime under 50.
The setup:
I have played with Villian #1 fairly often. He is a LAG who probably
bluffs more than prudent, and appears to like the 'thrill' of a big
bluff.
Villian #2 is a bit more of an unknown, however I have watched him for
2-3 orbits, and he is playing very tight-weak.
Hero has a tight-aggressive table image. Especially this session,
where he has been very card dead. He has recently had AA cracked by
Villian #2, and beaten Villian #2 with TT (both hands were shown-down).
The stacks:
Villian #1: $200
Villian #2: $ 35
Hero : $ 90
The play:
Everyone folds to Villian #1 on the button. Villian #1 raises to $15.
Hero is in the SB and looks down to see 44. Hero has three options:
1) Fold
2) Cold Call
3) All-in
* NOTE: I ruled out a raise other than all-in because I felt that a
* min raise would not be respected by Villian #2, and any raise over
* that would virtually force me to be pot-committed, so why not over
* bet the pot and make it as scary as possible?
The Analysis:
I did not believe that Option (2) was an option - calling 16% of my
stack and playing for set value is obviously not a winning strategy.
The only time (2) might be valid is if the intent is to perform a
Stop-N-Go.
The question that was in my mind was the choice between (1) and (3).
At the time I had a strong gut feeling that he was on a blind steal,
and thought I could push him off his raise. He took a minute or so
debating and finally called me with 99.
On further reflection I am unsure of whether option (3) can be a +EV
choice in the long run, so I thought that a more detailed analysis
(with some base assumptions) was in order:
--
Assumptions:
Villian #1 would open-raise on the button with:
Any Pair
Any Ace
Any King
QJ,QT,JT
Smaller suited connectors (45s to 9Ts)
Villian #2 would only call an all-in raise with QQ - AA.
Villian #1 would call my all-in with:
88 - AA
AK,AQ,AJ,KQ
--
Total # of Villian #1 hands for open-raise:
Any Pair: 52*3
Any Ace: 4*48
Any King: 4*44
QJ,QT,JT: 4*12
Smaller SCs: 6*4
Total: 596 / 2652 = 22.5%
Total # of Villian #2 hands for all-in call:
AA: 4*3
KK: 4*3
QQ: 4*3
Dominated Total: 36 / 2652 = 1.4 %
AK: 8*4
Even Total: 32 / 2652 = 1.2 %
Total # of Villian #1 hands for all-in call:
88 - AA: 28*3
Dominated Total: 84 / 596 = 14.1 %
AK,AQ,AJ: 4*12
KQ: 8*4
Even Total: 80 / 596 = 13.4%
EV Calculation:
** assuming that if Villian #2 calls Villian #1 folds **
** assuming that Villian #2 has me covered (for simplicity) **
Dominated %: 1.4 + 14.1 = 15.5 %
Even % : 1.2 + 13.4 = 14.6 %
Fold % = 69.9 %
EV = .155 * .20 * 180 +
.146 * .53 * 180 +
.699 * 108 =
$95
Conclusion:
With the given set of assumptions the play is slightly +EV (+5.6 %).
However, because of the small edge involved, the play is going to be
high variance and you will need to expect this.
The other flaw with this analysis revolves around the base assumptions
of what Villian #1 will raise/call with. If we keep his calling range
the same, but tighten his raising requirements we quickly get to a
break even point:
EV = .22 * .20 * 180 +.21 * .53 * 180 +.57 * 108 =
$89.5140
which equates to Villan #1 only raising with 382 hands, instead of
596.
The margin for error on reading of Villian #1 then becomes:
~ (596-382)/596 = 36%
Not an overly tight margin -- With this analysis I would definetely
consider making this play again in the future -- assuming I havent
made any errors in my calculations, or flaws in my thinking.
I am curious of other people's opinions on this problem. How would you have played this hand? Can you see any flaws in my analysis?
-belfast
1/3 NL, 50 (and only 50) buy-in, however you can rebuy anytime under 50.
The setup:
I have played with Villian #1 fairly often. He is a LAG who probably
bluffs more than prudent, and appears to like the 'thrill' of a big
bluff.
Villian #2 is a bit more of an unknown, however I have watched him for
2-3 orbits, and he is playing very tight-weak.
Hero has a tight-aggressive table image. Especially this session,
where he has been very card dead. He has recently had AA cracked by
Villian #2, and beaten Villian #2 with TT (both hands were shown-down).
The stacks:
Villian #1: $200
Villian #2: $ 35
Hero : $ 90
The play:
Everyone folds to Villian #1 on the button. Villian #1 raises to $15.
Hero is in the SB and looks down to see 44. Hero has three options:
1) Fold
2) Cold Call
3) All-in
* NOTE: I ruled out a raise other than all-in because I felt that a
* min raise would not be respected by Villian #2, and any raise over
* that would virtually force me to be pot-committed, so why not over
* bet the pot and make it as scary as possible?
The Analysis:
I did not believe that Option (2) was an option - calling 16% of my
stack and playing for set value is obviously not a winning strategy.
The only time (2) might be valid is if the intent is to perform a
Stop-N-Go.
The question that was in my mind was the choice between (1) and (3).
At the time I had a strong gut feeling that he was on a blind steal,
and thought I could push him off his raise. He took a minute or so
debating and finally called me with 99.
On further reflection I am unsure of whether option (3) can be a +EV
choice in the long run, so I thought that a more detailed analysis
(with some base assumptions) was in order:
--
Assumptions:
Villian #1 would open-raise on the button with:
Any Pair
Any Ace
Any King
QJ,QT,JT
Smaller suited connectors (45s to 9Ts)
Villian #2 would only call an all-in raise with QQ - AA.
Villian #1 would call my all-in with:
88 - AA
AK,AQ,AJ,KQ
--
Total # of Villian #1 hands for open-raise:
Any Pair: 52*3
Any Ace: 4*48
Any King: 4*44
QJ,QT,JT: 4*12
Smaller SCs: 6*4
Total: 596 / 2652 = 22.5%
Total # of Villian #2 hands for all-in call:
AA: 4*3
KK: 4*3
QQ: 4*3
Dominated Total: 36 / 2652 = 1.4 %
AK: 8*4
Even Total: 32 / 2652 = 1.2 %
Total # of Villian #1 hands for all-in call:
88 - AA: 28*3
Dominated Total: 84 / 596 = 14.1 %
AK,AQ,AJ: 4*12
KQ: 8*4
Even Total: 80 / 596 = 13.4%
EV Calculation:
** assuming that if Villian #2 calls Villian #1 folds **
** assuming that Villian #2 has me covered (for simplicity) **
Dominated %: 1.4 + 14.1 = 15.5 %
Even % : 1.2 + 13.4 = 14.6 %
Fold % = 69.9 %
EV = .155 * .20 * 180 +
.146 * .53 * 180 +
.699 * 108 =
$95
Conclusion:
With the given set of assumptions the play is slightly +EV (+5.6 %).
However, because of the small edge involved, the play is going to be
high variance and you will need to expect this.
The other flaw with this analysis revolves around the base assumptions
of what Villian #1 will raise/call with. If we keep his calling range
the same, but tighten his raising requirements we quickly get to a
break even point:
EV = .22 * .20 * 180 +.21 * .53 * 180 +.57 * 108 =
$89.5140
which equates to Villan #1 only raising with 382 hands, instead of
596.
The margin for error on reading of Villian #1 then becomes:
~ (596-382)/596 = 36%
Not an overly tight margin -- With this analysis I would definetely
consider making this play again in the future -- assuming I havent
made any errors in my calculations, or flaws in my thinking.
I am curious of other people's opinions on this problem. How would you have played this hand? Can you see any flaws in my analysis?
-belfast