"KK played to perfection?" [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

View Full Version : "KK played to perfection?"

aK13

04-11-2005, 01:19 PM

Party Poker Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG is terrible, calling caps with 98o and staying till the river w/ second pair. 60% vpip, 45% went to showdown

MP1 (loose fish) has decent preflop numbers but constantly goes to river w/ very little chance of winning

MP3/SB are loose passive preflop and postflop

CO is 2+2er PeterRus and has just posted in the CO

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.

CO (2+2er) posts blind.

UTG calls, 1 fold, Loose Fish raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 2+2er(poster) 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, Loose Fish calls, MP3 calls, 2+2er/ calls.

Flop: (25 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Loose Fish checks, MP3 checks, 2+2er bets, Hero raises, SB folds, UTG calls, Loose Fish calls, MP3 folds, 2+2er 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, Loose Fish calls.

Turn: (18.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, Loose Fish checks, 2+2er bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, Loose Fish calls, 2+2er 3-bets, Hero calls, Loose Fish calls.

River: (27.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Loose Fish checks, 2+2er bets, Hero folds, Loose Fish calls.

Final Pot: 29.50 BB

-----

I find this hand to be one of the most interesting/compelling that I've ever read, so I wanted to share it with my fellow microlimiters. Folding on the river for 1 BB, I think it's a fantastic laydown.

bottomset

04-11-2005, 01:25 PM

i think you are in a lot of trouble when he 3bets you on the flop, he has AA, JJ here most of the time, since you will cold cap with AA,KK,QQ and maybe AKs and he's not 3betting QQ on the flop, looks pretty bleak

jrz1972

04-11-2005, 01:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Folding on the river for 1 BB, I think it's a fantastic laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I think your hand is good at least 3.5% of the time here.

By the way, the flop raise was not good. This is one of those hands where the pot is too large to protect your hand with a flop raise, so you want to encourage villian to bet the turn so you can raise there. (I know you got your raise in on the turn anyway, but you couldn't have known it was going to go that way when you incorrectly raised the flop).

The river fold is so spectacularly bad that I hesitate to even mention the flop raise, which is a very small and understandable error by comparison. Fretting about the flop raise is kind of like worrying about a ding in your door after you just threw a rod, but I should point it out for the sake of completeness.

Aaron W.

04-11-2005, 01:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG is terrible, calling caps with 98o and staying till the river w/ second pair. 60% vpip, 45% went to showdown

MP1 (loose fish) has decent preflop numbers but constantly goes to river w/ very little chance of winning

MP3/SB are loose passive preflop and postflop

CO is 2+2er PeterRus and has just posted in the CO

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.

CO (2+2er) posts blind.

UTG calls, 1 fold, Loose Fish raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 2+2er(poster) 3-bets, Hero caps, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, Loose Fish calls, MP3 calls, 2+2er/ calls.

Flop: (25 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (6 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Loose Fish checks, MP3 checks, 2+2er bets, Hero raises, SB folds, UTG calls, Loose Fish calls, MP3 folds, 2+2er 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG calls, Loose Fish calls.

Turn: (18.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, Loose Fish checks, 2+2er bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, Loose Fish calls, 2+2er 3-bets, Hero calls, Loose Fish calls.

River: (27.50 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Loose Fish checks, 2+2er bets, Hero folds, Loose Fish calls.

Final Pot: 29.50 BB

-----

I find this hand to be one of the most interesting/compelling that I've ever read, so I wanted to share it with my fellow microlimiters.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like it. That's a bad laydown (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2082209&page=&view=&s b=5&o=) on the river. (Make sure you follow the next link, also.) If you were intending to call a 3-bet and fold the river unimproved, you shouldn't have raised in the first place.

2+2er could easily be overplaying QQ here. Even if you decide that QQ is not possible, there's still a chance (15%) that you're going to chop with the other KK.

EV = .15*(.5*28.5) - .85*(-1) = 1.29 BB

This is bad... very very bad. Don't fold in gigantic pots for one bet on the river. Just don't ever do it.

crumpentunt

04-11-2005, 01:49 PM

I dont understand why you raised the turn. To increase your chances of winning the pot by getting UTG and loosefish to fold? I think the way 2+2er played this hand through til the turn, your looking at JJ, QQ or AA.

I play it the same way, except I check/call turn and the river. These are just my thoughts and I could use some criticism.

wyoak

04-11-2005, 01:57 PM

once he 3bets the flop i'm calling down. folding the river to one bet is a disaster.

edit: actually, i'd probably cap the flop, if he leads into me on the turn i'm calling down.

Ianco15

04-11-2005, 02:00 PM

My play, brilliant in my opinion.

Seriously, you're posting this hand as a joke right? Folding this river for one bet is blasphemy.

bottomset

04-11-2005, 02:01 PM

Aaron how do you get the 15% likely to have the case KK, its 1combo, his range is AA,KK,JJ and I'm not sold he's 3betting the turn with KK even

but as stands its 9combos that beat you, 1combo that chops, and I guess 6combos that you beat, but its very unlikely to have

uh I don't like my hand against that range

Peter_Rus is a very good player, maybe at high stakes he will play QQ this way to get you to fold KK .. but it really seems unlikely

FWIW i just call the turn, call the river in this hand, though it feels wrong

MrWookie47

04-11-2005, 02:02 PM

Sweet merciful crap. You folded for one bet on the river holding an overpair on a board that doesn't contain a 3-flush or a 4-straight with a pot that contains almost 30 BB? He could show me AA or JJ there and I'd still have to think long and hard about folding.

gopnik

04-11-2005, 02:02 PM

I think the turn raise following by the river fold was a terrible play. For the same number of bets you see the showdown.
Plus, if you raise the turn (meaning you think you have a better hand) why fold on the river when a blank came????

MrEngenic

04-11-2005, 02:12 PM

Please tell me where and when you play.

bottomset

04-11-2005, 02:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Please tell me where and when you play.

[/ QUOTE ]

odds are if he's playing against PeterRus he's playing much above what your BR can withstand 15/30 or higher

Entity

04-11-2005, 02:22 PM

From what I know of Peter's play, I'd probably call the flop and raise the turn, calling down if 3-bet.

If you put him on exactly JJ after his turn 3-bet, your river fold is fine, but I think that's a little narrow given what I've seen of his play.

For those who don't know, Peter_Rus is a very good, very aggressive 15/30 multitabler who would wipe the floor with any of us. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Rob

aK13

04-11-2005, 02:27 PM

Ahhh...finally, some responses to the post =). This hand was played at high stakes (15/30), and I just copy/pasted it from the high stakes forum. I looked at this hand long and hard yesterday. A combination of things convinces me that this is actually a respectable laydown. (I'll also add that the villain (2+2er) also replied to the original thread)

Ok let's start the breakdown.

1. Villain is a 2+2er, thus we can assume that he is a thinking player. Since Hero recognizes Villain as a 2+2er, it's pretty safe to say Villain also probably knows Hero is a respectable player as well.

2+2er 3bets, Hero caps -- well then, let's think about this. 2+2er could possibly be making this play with JJ-AA, AK, AQs. 2+2er sees Hero cap, so 2+2er knows Hero must have an incredible hand.

2. Flop: 2+2er bets, Hero raises, 2+2er 3 bets.

Unlikely here that 2+2er is 3 betting with something like AKo, AQo. Very small chance that AQs or AKs is making this play since he knows Hero has a premium holding, but maybe. It's probably more reasonable that 2+2er has JJ-AA.

3. Turn: 2+2er bets, Hero raises, 2+2er 3bets.

Blank falls. Hero raises here for information. 2+2er's 3bet indicates Hero is behind AA or JJ. Why? 2+2er knows Hero has a fantastic hand, based on preflop play and post flop aggression, and 2+2er still continues to play aggressively and fire at him. Do you really see QQ, or even KK playing this way? (and definitely not 2 overs + flush draw) I think the key here is that Hero knows that the 2+2er knows what Hero holds, and still continues to bet at him. This information is given by the raise and 2+2ers 3bet.

4. 2+2er turn 3bet indicates Hero is way behind. So why call?

Easy here, pot/implied odds.

5. River fold.

Missed his draw. 30 BB pot, I know. But do you really think you're KK is good here?

Original post:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2108908&page=1&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1

Ringo_Mojo

04-11-2005, 02:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I find this hand to be one of the most interesting/compelling that I've ever read, so I wanted to share it with my fellow microlimiters. Folding on the river for 1 BB, I think it's a fantastic laydown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you meant to post this Here (http://groups.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=messageboard.viewcategory&gro upID=100015246&Mytoken=20050320232245)

bigmac366

04-11-2005, 02:45 PM

i dont care what you think about your so called "fantastic laydown", he has a wayyy overplayed QQ or AJ here more than 1 time in 30.

bigmac366

04-11-2005, 02:50 PM

thats why i dont play 15/30.

Greg J

04-11-2005, 02:52 PM

If this is a good laydown I obviously have a lot to learn about poker. I don't care who is betting into me there. It could be Peter Rus or Jesus Christ.

Somebody explain this to me in clear language I can understand. I'm obviously on the shortbus here.

bottomset

04-11-2005, 03:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If this is a good laydown I obviously have a lot to learn about poker. I don't care who is betting into me there. It could be Peter Rus or Jesus Christ.

Somebody explain this to me in clear language I can understand. I'm obviously on the shortbus here.

[/ QUOTE ]

PeterRus is a very good player, he knows you are solid and you coldcapped before the flop, raised the flop and raised the turn .. thus you have a strong hand AA-QQ

the only hands he 3bets on the turn are AA and JJ thats it .. you had odds to call the 3bet to hit the 2outer, missed now you fold

I don't like the turn raise, but honestly there is maybe 1%chance you win this showdown, in the furcoat example it was KingsFull laying down for 1bet when the only thing that beat him was Quad Queens .. here there are 9combos of hands that beat you, only 7you beat/chop .. and given the play its far far more likely he has one of the 9 you lose to

hicherbie

04-11-2005, 03:22 PM

its a different game up there...reads and notes account for a lot of gameplay decisions...trying to apply it to the micros is probably not a good idea.

Greg J

04-11-2005, 03:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the only hands he 3bets on the turn are AA and JJ thats it .. you had odds to call the 3bet to hit the 2outer, missed now you fold

[/ QUOTE ]
Is it unreasonable to give Mr Rus credit for next level thinking, having a read on Hero (despite posting -- he might well have notes on him), and purposefully playing his QQ or AJs like he would AA or JJ? AJs would be a sweet turn semibluff that gives him folding equity on the turn. QQ would be an almost pure bluff, but might also buy him the pot is he thought Hero is capable of this kind of laydown. Furthermore, I don't want to show any good player that I'm capable of this kind of laydown -- metagame stuff. I'm trying to think a couple of levels up here. Feel free to tell me how dumb I am.

@bsolute_luck

04-11-2005, 03:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
its a different game up there...reads and notes account for a lot of gameplay decisions...trying to apply it to the micros is probably not a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

how anyone can even begin to have a conversation on these forums is beyond me. i'm not praising them as gods of poker, but you'd have to be pretty damn good.

Aaron W.

04-11-2005, 03:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron how do you get the 15% likely to have the case KK, its 1combo, his range is AA,KK,JJ and I'm not sold he's 3betting the turn with KK even

but as stands its 9combos that beat you, 1combo that chops, and I guess 6combos that you beat, but its very unlikely to have

uh I don't like my hand against that range

Peter_Rus is a very good player, maybe at high stakes he will play QQ this way to get you to fold KK .. but it really seems unlikely

FWIW i just call the turn, call the river in this hand, though it feels wrong

[/ QUOTE ]

I got 15% by miscounting and leaving out the JJ combinations (1 - KK, 6 - AA). But even throwing in those extra 3 hands, it's still 10% if you completely discount an overplayed QQ, and it's still a call:

EV = .1*(.5*28.5) - .9*(1) = .525 BB

The only way for this fold to be correct is if you can rule out that villain has KK. It can be done, but I would still call the river.

Consider what villain is looking at:

Hero capped preflop: AA-JJ, AK

Hero raised-called flop: AA-QQ (JJ), AK -- At this point, the pot is quite large. Only JJ is strong enough to be willing to bloat the pot blindly and hope everyone comes along. AA may want to wait until the turn to raise to have a better chance of protecting his hand and leeching equity out of the possible flush draw (AA has no redraw, whereas JJ will have lots of outs to fill to a full house or quads). But keep this in the back of your mind because it's possible for JJ to simply wait for the turn to get more action.

Hero raised the turn: AA-KK (QQ) (JJ) -- I wouldn't eliminate QQ just yet. One might argue that QQ will just call the turn and river, leaving you with AA-KK (JJ), but I think that's a little too much to say at this point.

What would villain do? If villain holds KK, then he would not 3-bet the turn. It's is now quite likely that he's trailing.

So it seems possible to eliminate KK from contention from the turn 3-bet. But you would have to believe that villain is a solid thinking player and will not overplay KK. I'd still call. (I probably would not have raised on the turn in the first place.)

By the way, you need to reduce KK to a half-hand (so there are 9.5 total possible hands), for your EV to become negative. Even if you discount it to 2/3 of a hand, your river calling EV is still positive!

Too bad I don't have time right now to look at the original thread. I think it would be interesting to see how they break it down.

aK13

04-11-2005, 03:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
its a different game up there...reads and notes account for a lot of gameplay decisions...trying to apply it to the micros is probably not a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree with this statement. Even playing a 2+2er on micros, I would probably never lay this down. However, I think it really does show how far a lot of us are from being capable of playing at high stakes and really understanding this game of poker. I think it's all of our goals to be able to make these judgments/analysis while multi-tabling. The fact that the original poster could do this makes me applaud him all the more. In the replies on the high stakes forums, everyone commended this laydown, and I thought it was a huge mistake, so I thought I'd share it with the rest of the people here to just give a glimpse of what it takes to play "up there".

aK13

04-11-2005, 03:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]

So it seems possible to eliminate KK from contention from the turn 3-bet. But you would have to believe that villain is a solid thinking player and will not overplay KK. I'd still call. (I probably would not have raised on the turn in the first place.)

[/ QUOTE ]

PeterRus is an excellent player. You can give him credit for all of those assumptions.

droolie

04-11-2005, 03:45 PM

Nice fold. Enjoy your shrimp cocktail.

http://slicer.headsupclub.com:3455/16/31

gopnik

04-11-2005, 03:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
3. Turn: 2+2er bets, Hero raises, 2+2er 3bets.

Blank falls. Hero raises here for information.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. Why do you need this information???? Would not it be better to invest this BB into seeing the showdown? Isn't it the ulimate information?

Shillx

04-11-2005, 03:55 PM

This hand would have been far more interesting had Peter checked the flop. The only play IMO here is the check behind on the flop and then raise his turn bet.

When he bets the flop, I'm pretty much putting him on queens and maybe jacks if he thinks you will check it though. He should probably check aces and kings here with the intention of betting the turn. This looks like a pot where I wan't to maximize my winning chances rather then getting tons of value from my big hand, but I can be convinced otherwise.

Brad

aK13

04-11-2005, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3. Turn: 2+2er bets, Hero raises, 2+2er 3bets.

Blank falls. Hero raises here for information.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get it. Why do you need this information???? Would not it be better to invest this BB into seeing the showdown? Isn't it the ulimate information?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is actually a very interesting point. One thing that PeterRus replied in the high stakes thread (he's also the villain, with poor english I might add), which I interpret as "Did you think you were going to get 3bet on the turn?".

My guess is that Hero probably did not. Hero doesn't know FOR SURE that he is behind until the turn. He doesn't cap preflop because he wants to raise on the turn to get people out of the pot.

AlmightyJay

04-11-2005, 04:33 PM

Ugh. Why the stop and go? Why are you calling a 3-bet on the turn and then folding getting 28:1 on the river? I hate it. Call the turn, don't raise it. You're probably beat but I think he has QQ more than 1 in 28 times on this river.

Entity

04-11-2005, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you calling a 3-bet on the turn and then folding getting 28:1 on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

It should be obvious why we call the 3-bet and fold the river: we're getting odds to draw to a two-outer.

Whether we should raise the turn or not, however, is up to a bit more discussion.

Rob