06-03-2002, 12:04 AM
Recently I ran across an article at the following address:
www.baseballstuff.com/fraser/articles/dips.html (http://www.baseballstuff.com/fraser/articles/dips.html)
This article, in essense, argues that we need to come up with a new way to calculate the effectiveness of pitchers. To this end he proposes using what he calls the "Defense Independant Pitching Statistic", which essentially only considers SO's, BB's, HR's and HBP's when evaluating a pitcher. He goes on to say that considering the number of hits allowed isn't worth much, since for most pitchers the number of hits they allow WHEN A BALL IS PUT INTO PLAY varies wildly from year to year. In short, Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson have both had years with exceptionally high 'hit ratios', which indicates that when they don't strike out a batter (or walk him, or hit him with a pitch) then that batter is more likely than usual to collect a hit.
There's one line that's very important in the above paragraph, so I'll say it again: looking at how often a pitcher allows a hit when he doesn't strikeout/walk/ or hit a batter isn't worth much, as it doesn't have much predicative value (i.e., the 'hit ratios' for pitcher vary wildly from year to year). So, in short, when a hitter does make contact it's virtually anyone's guess as to what will happen, as even the best pitchers have very little control over whether or not a batter will collect a hit ONCE THEY'VE MADE CONTACT AND PUT THE BALL INTO PLAY.
I've been ruminating over this for a while, and still can't decide if this matters or not; at least insofar as it relates to handicapping a game. It would suggest that pitcher with historically high SO ratios will do about the same from one year to the next, while 'ground ball' or 'fly ball' pitchers may or may not. To that end I can see how this stat could effect the handicapping of W/L futures bets at the beginning of the season, since a team staffed with 'ground ball' pitchers may have a much higher chance of allowing a good deal more (or fewer) runs from one year to the next.
But how about for handicapping a particular game? Does anyone see how this statistic could be of value? I've been thinking about it, and I still can't decide.
www.baseballstuff.com/fraser/articles/dips.html (http://www.baseballstuff.com/fraser/articles/dips.html)
This article, in essense, argues that we need to come up with a new way to calculate the effectiveness of pitchers. To this end he proposes using what he calls the "Defense Independant Pitching Statistic", which essentially only considers SO's, BB's, HR's and HBP's when evaluating a pitcher. He goes on to say that considering the number of hits allowed isn't worth much, since for most pitchers the number of hits they allow WHEN A BALL IS PUT INTO PLAY varies wildly from year to year. In short, Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson have both had years with exceptionally high 'hit ratios', which indicates that when they don't strike out a batter (or walk him, or hit him with a pitch) then that batter is more likely than usual to collect a hit.
There's one line that's very important in the above paragraph, so I'll say it again: looking at how often a pitcher allows a hit when he doesn't strikeout/walk/ or hit a batter isn't worth much, as it doesn't have much predicative value (i.e., the 'hit ratios' for pitcher vary wildly from year to year). So, in short, when a hitter does make contact it's virtually anyone's guess as to what will happen, as even the best pitchers have very little control over whether or not a batter will collect a hit ONCE THEY'VE MADE CONTACT AND PUT THE BALL INTO PLAY.
I've been ruminating over this for a while, and still can't decide if this matters or not; at least insofar as it relates to handicapping a game. It would suggest that pitcher with historically high SO ratios will do about the same from one year to the next, while 'ground ball' or 'fly ball' pitchers may or may not. To that end I can see how this stat could effect the handicapping of W/L futures bets at the beginning of the season, since a team staffed with 'ground ball' pitchers may have a much higher chance of allowing a good deal more (or fewer) runs from one year to the next.
But how about for handicapping a particular game? Does anyone see how this statistic could be of value? I've been thinking about it, and I still can't decide.