99 in the BB, questionable play

[scotty34]

I have only seen UTG for about 30 hands, but seems like a reasonable player from what I saw. Nothing out of the ordinary to report.
MP1 is a bit LAGgy.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, Hero calls.

<font color="blue"> I'm thinking I probably should have 3-bet PF, but I decided to respect the UTG raise as being a fairly strong hand. Add that to the somewhat of a wildcard in MP1, and I think the 3-bet may not have been appropriate. Comments on the PF call?</font>

Flop: (6.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

<font color="blue"> Well the flop had the one card I really didn't want to see, but its only one overcard. If MP1 had called here, I think I would have just folded. Is that wrong? Once MP1 folded, I decided to go for the C/R. I planned on calling a 3-bet and folding the turn UI. </font>

I really didn't like my play after the hand, and I'm curious to know what others think. My thoughts after were "what range of hands can I put him on that I am beating?" Not many. Comments?

[einbert]

I like the preflop call. Noone is folding and bloating the pot doesn't help if you're against overcards. It's unlikely you have either player dominated as well.

I think it really depends on _how_ laggy MP1 is. If he's laggy enough to threebet you with a worse hand I'm probably just calling down the whole way unless the board gets really nasty. If he'll slow down with worse hands but three-bet you with an ace, I really like your line. If he's passive enough that he'll slow down to your flop CR even with an ace, then again I like just calling down. If you were in position it would be a different matter.

[scotty34]

MP1 (who was the LAG) folded to UTG's flop bet. UTG was the reasonable player.

Still the same comment, or does that change it?

[MrWookie47]

The only hand I raise UTG that you're ahead of right now is KQ. If you think he's a reasonable player, I think you're totally sunk. If you think he'd raise any other non-PP, non-A hands, you could use the check/call, check/call, bet line, but I don't think that'd be all that great. I think raising here was exactly the wrong thing to do.

[ChoicestHops]

99 is one of my worst hands. When an under the gun TAG raised and an A flops, I usually give up my 99.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 (who was the LAG) folded to UTG's flop bet. UTG was the reasonable player.

Still the same comment, or does that change it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well since UTG raised preflop I don't see him ever checking this flop. But if he is reasonable you're a huge dog to his range of hands. If you think he might fold JJ-KK either to the flop checkraise or to a turn bet then I don't mind the move at all though. You have to be sure he's capable of such a fold, though, because I really don't see you winning a showdown.

If he's the type that frequently calls one more on the flop only to fold the turn UI I would fold, but if he'll fold a lot to the flop checkraise then the move is okay.

I think that at this level, most TAGs are not going to be capable of folding their hand here, especially without seeing the turn first. I like a check/fold line more.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
The only hand I raise UTG that you're ahead of right now is KQ. If you think he's a reasonable player, I think you're totally sunk. If you think he'd raise any other non-PP, non-A hands, you could use the check/call, check/call, bet line, but I don't think that'd be all that great. I think raising here was exactly the wrong thing to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you ever fold TT-KK, or AJo or similar to a check-raise on the flop? Would you call the C/R and fold the turn UI? Would you 3-bet any of these?

I suppose the answer is likely "No" to all of these at the micro-limits. If it were "Yes" do you see any more merit in my line, or do you still not like it?

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only hand I raise UTG that you're ahead of right now is KQ. If you think he's a reasonable player, I think you're totally sunk. If you think he'd raise any other non-PP, non-A hands, you could use the check/call, check/call, bet line, but I don't think that'd be all that great. I think raising here was exactly the wrong thing to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you ever fold TT-KK, or AJo or similar to a check-raise on the flop? Would you call the C/R and fold the turn UI? Would you 3-bet any of these?

I suppose the answer is likely "No" to all of these at the micro-limits. If it were "Yes" do you see any more merit in my line, or do you still not like it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but at least if you're holding QQ, the only card you fear is the K (if he doesn't have an A). With 99, there are a bunch of overs which your opponent could be holding that you are way behind.

Just thought about this -- consider leading the flop, and folding to a raise?

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only hand I raise UTG that you're ahead of right now is KQ. If you think he's a reasonable player, I think you're totally sunk. If you think he'd raise any other non-PP, non-A hands, you could use the check/call, check/call, bet line, but I don't think that'd be all that great. I think raising here was exactly the wrong thing to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you ever fold TT-KK, or AJo or similar to a check-raise on the flop? Would you call the C/R and fold the turn UI? Would you 3-bet any of these?

I suppose the answer is likely "No" to all of these at the micro-limits. If it were "Yes" do you see any more merit in my line, or do you still not like it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but at least if you're holding QQ, the only card you fear is the K (if he doesn't have an A). With 99, there are a bunch of overs which your opponent could be holding that you are way behind.

Just thought about this -- consider leading the flop, and folding to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

My comment there was in response to Wookie, and telling him to put himself in Villain's shoes with TT-KK or AJo or something. Would the villain ever fold to my raise? As pointed out, of villain's entire range of hands, I may be beating one or two of them. My objective with the C/R was to get villain to fold a better hand. Doable or not?

I think leading the flop and folding to a raise would not be very good. Villain in this case will often raise with almost every one of his possible holdings, including TT-KK. Again, my objective was to get villain to fold a better hand (unless he has KQ), and I don't think this can be accomplished by leading the flop. A C/R is a sign of a lot of strength, and it might make him consider folding the flop (or folding the turn UI with TT-KK).

It is costing me 2 SB to win a pot which is now 7.5 SB. Is it possible to get him to fold often enough for this to be profitable? My thinking now is likely no, as most micro players would not fold TT-KK here enough, even if they think they are beat. Plus there are all those times where he has AJ-AK or AA where he is even less likely to fold.

[einbert]

You're going to have to follow it up with a turn bet the times he calls you on the flop, so it's really costing you something like 3 or 3.5 small bets to make this play. Not longterm profitable.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
You're going to have to follow it up with a turn bet the times he calls you on the flop, so it's really costing you something like 3 or 3.5 small bets to make this play. Not longterm profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I agree.

I kind of want to just change the numbers, and post this in the high stakes forum to see if their opinion is different for that level. I'm scared of being flamed though /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[aK13]

I think by betting, you're representing an ace. Villain is a decent player, so he is also probably thinking, and therefore will give you some credit for calling with a decent hand, even though its from the big blind.

If he raises you, I'd say hes not doing it with KK-TT, but A-big kicker.

I just think you have a better chance by leading out. Anyone else want to comment on my line about something I might have missed?