two pair, scare card on the river

[george w of poker]

Villain is very loose, not stupid post flop. He's capable of bluffing on the end after missing a flush but I haven't actually seen him pull a big bluff like this. It smells like a 7 but I'm getting ~2.7:1. Anyone fold or play it differently otherwise?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB ($180.92)
BB ($264.1)
UTG ($75.23)
<font color="#C00000">MP ($177.11)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($297)</font>
Button ($40.35)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $11.

Turn: ($35) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, MP calls $20.

River: ($75) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $45</font>, Hero calls $45.

Final Pot: $165

[edge]

I bet more on the turn. You're pricing in diamonds too much there, I think.

I call the river against this opponent. What kind of 7 can he be holding? 87 is a bit goofy. I think the only way is if he has A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or 76 (maybe 43?).

[BobboFitos]

bet more on the turn

MP's flop bet could be complete bluff, flush draw, 34 (if he'd limped with that) 67, A8/some 8junk hand, 55, 22. If he'd limp 88 after limpers in LP he could have that or 99/TT.

he check/called turn though. he wants pot small. this is linked to his river bet. it's a blocking bet. he obviously once calls the flop raise is not on a pure bluff.

I dont think this is a pure bluff from diamonds given the coordination of the board/small relative river bet. Probably not 34 as thatcheck raises or stop&amp;gos turn. A set played passively on the turn might block the river, too, as it's possible you had a 7. (87/67, bet the turn beause 67 picks up a pair and 87 picks up oesd)

Anyways, I call here too, expect to see A8, TT, possibly weird bluff enough to make it profitable. (need to win 30%ish?) You probablyhang around that.