JJ meeting aggression on a rag board [Archive]

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GrandmaStabone

04-10-2005, 05:32 PM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, MP3 3-bets, 4 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has Jh Jc (two pair, jacks and fives).
MP3 has Qc Qs (two pair, queens and fives).
Outcome: MP3 wins 9.75 BB. 

Any comments? I felt like I was beaten, the villian's stats were 14.8/0/0 over about 60 hands. That is a small sample but suggests some pretty tight raising standards. I payed down beacuse of the lack of any overs on the board, anyone lay this down? Where and why?

Ianco15

04-10-2005, 05:37 PM

a) I'm sure you already know this: do not show results, it skews answers.

b)This is a very tough laydown with an almost perfect board. It looks like AA KK QQ, but it could be JJ, TT, 99, 77 etc. Some players that are really tight usually get out of line with any pocket pair. I think I call this down.

istewart

04-10-2005, 05:40 PM

If he's really, really tight, I might 3-bet the flop and check/fold the turn if he caps.

jaxUp

04-10-2005, 06:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If he's really, really tight, I might 3-bet the flop and check/fold the turn if he caps.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would like at least 100 or so more hands before we make a play like this...your line is probably fine.

istewart

04-10-2005, 06:23 PM

Fair enough.

Shillx

04-10-2005, 06:33 PM

Betting the flop is always wrong in this situation. The best line is almost always to check and call unless bad cards start coming off. Here is what I'd do:

Flop: Almost always check/call. Sometimes throw in a check/raise to mix up your game. The default play is to check and call though.

Turn: The 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif is a very interesting card because it gives you outs if you are behind. Let's just say that the villian will always have AA for the sake of argument. After you check/call the flop, the pot will be 4.75 BB.

EV check/call = .09*.5*6.75 + .045*6.75 - 1 = - .39 BB

Not good. Let's say that the villian will have a worse hand 10% of the time (by this I mean a lower pocket pair):

EV turn check/call = .91*.1*6.75 + .09*.9*6.75 - 1 = + .16 BB
EV river check/call or bet = .91*.1*8.75 - 1 = - .20 BB
Net: - .04 BB/Hand

So in order to check/call after that turn card hits, you need to have the best hand more then 10% of the time. This is a very real possibility imo. Since you did decide to raise the flop, the call down is now more profitable because the pot is bigger. So my line in this hand is to check and call all the way and then maybe bet the river depending on the opponent. Against a frequent bluffer you should check/call all the way and against someone who will pay off the river with AK, you should bet the river.

Brad

Edited to clarify what I meant by a "worse hand".

olavfo

04-10-2005, 06:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
EV check/call = .09*.5*6.75 + .045*6.75 - 1 = - .39 BB

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure I follow. Shouldn't the last term be -0.865 instead of -1?

9% of the time you hit the straight and win half the pot, 4.5% of the time you get trips and win the whole pot and 86.5% of the time you lose one bet. Or did I misunderstand something?

Still a negative expectation though.

olavfo