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05-31-2002, 02:49 AM
1. Why do they have to play 3 critical games (2 sports) all on the same night and a Friday no less? I mean if you really want to screw yourself, why not have sporting events on TV when your target audience is likely to be out on the town...makes a lot of sense.


2. Once again Triple Crown is on the line and yet there is NO buzz about it. Twenty years back this would have been a huge story, but even here in Nevada there is almost no mention of it. Last year there was the "third round" with the two winners going head to head and it yielded a big crowd at Belmont and all the talk about the Clintons being there. This year hardly anything is being said in the press about it, does this mean you need the Clintons to be a big event??? Need anything more be said about the sorry state of horse racing?


3. Who are the fools in the press kidding? They are asking the Lakers if they are "scared" about losing. Come on, what a stupid question! A room full of guys with enough rings on their fingers to be rappers (oops one certain guy THINKS he is a rapper!) and you think they fear losing. Journalists have gotta get a real job someday.


4. Its sad to see how two teams this far into the playoffs are so shorthanded as the Leafs were and the Avs are getting to be. You can play 20 rounds of NBA playoffs, 15 series of baseball, plenty of football since its weekly...but you can't ask these NHL guys to play this much and still say its quality hockey. The nature of the game is such it ALWAYS becomes a 2-1 fest by the time these series are on. Yeah I make money off of it every year betting under this time of year after betting over earlier, but I love the game and wish they had the foresight to see that it would play better if they cut out one round. Three division winners and a wild-card would be fine, besides all four teams would have been in there under this system. Then you might have seen what a healthier Leafs team could do and maybe the Avs wouldn't be fighting down to the bone. Besides as it is now you have to fight out TV time with the NBA Finals and even in a sorry year for the Finals like this year will be, you will still see 2 or 3 times more viewers for hoops than hockey. It need not be this way.


5. Speaking of this, I took a small flyer on the Canes. My thinking is if the Avs find a way to win, and I think they have enough to win one more game, then the Canes are going to be an excellent bet. Much like the situation with the Leafs, a team can only cover for injuries for so long. Fortunately the Avs haven't lost anyone too crucial yet, but the stars can only do so much. Three straight 7 game series and a bunch of injuries, not exactly a team you would want to back for another series against a healthy team that figures they have nothing to lose. I got them at +350 which is a good price in my mind because I would say that is about the correct price should they play Detroit. So I am getting a free-roll at a shot of them playing the team I would definitely bet against. People have been saying the Canes are worthless all playoffs long, but they have done the job and have the type of goalie that could steal one more series playing an overconfident team. I guarantee you the winner of the West will NOT be taking the Canes seriously and will letdown after getting by what they figure is the real series. This is hockey though, not hoops. Hockey has upsets of this magnitude quite a bit, hoops does not. Bad bounces don't hurt you that much in the NBA, they can lose a series for you real easy in the NHL.

05-31-2002, 04:37 AM
I also have taken a bit on the canes. i'm hesitant to go more as i remember the panthers some years ago getting to the finals, and then getting blown in 4 games by a superior team. this seems like a similar situation. i hope i'm wrong as i like the canes as a fan more than either detriot or colorado.


as for a letdown, once the finals start, i don't think taking another team lightly will last more than one period. a couple good hits and game on.


as for injuries, they have been part of the playoffs as long as i can remember. what i wouldn't mind is losing 10+ games off the regular season. (not going to happen) the nhl finally has gotten to the point where the regular season does mean something (i.e. a good team has a chance to miss the playoffs) and i wouldn't want to see that change.


oh, i also hedged some of my redwings action. i'll take roy +170 in a game 7. take my profit, sit back, and enjoy some good hockey.


aaron

06-02-2002, 11:39 PM
It's true that a bad bounce can screw you more in hockey, but when it comes to the finals the best team usually prevails handily. Consider these previous tilts:


1996: Av's vs. Panthers

1998: Wings vs. Capitals

1999: Stars vs. Sabres


In 1997 it wasn't obvious that the Wings were all that much better than the Flyers, although they still pulled off the sweep. Ditto with 2000-01, where the Stars-Devils seemed 'fairly' even and the Av's-Devils also seemed close.


But when a mediocre team manages to sneak through a conference they can probably expect to get whipped in the finals-- provided that an excellent team emerges from the other conference.


I see the logic behind the 'Canes bet, but I don't think they take this series often enough to turn a profit. The Wings are too deep, and the Canes have nothing after their first two lines. Also, while the upset of the Devils in the first round was impressive, they got verrryyyy lucky in that they didnt' have to face the Flyers in the second round OR the Bruins in the third, as either of these teams would have given them fits. The Habs play no defense, so that was a break, and the Leafs were (as mentioned) so beat-up that the result here wasn't entirely surprising (although it did surprise me a bit, since I jumped all over the Leafs +800 to win in six after they took the first game).


You can ride a hot goalie for quite a while in the playoffs, but the problem a good-but-not-great team with a hot goalie (read: the 'canes) often faces in the finals is that they're facing an excellent team with a hot goalie in the finals. This, obviously, doesn't bode well. The above examples point this out. In '96 the Panthers had the Beezer, but the Av's had Roy. In '98 the Caps had Kolzig, but the Wings had Osgood (who, in his defense, played fairly well that playoff season). The Sabres obviously had Hasek in '99, but the Stars countered with Belfour, who despite his sociopathic tendencies is one of the all time great money goalies.


In short, I think a bet on the 'canes is sketchy. But I do agree they've at least got a sailor's chance of pulling it out.