Checking flop to protect hand on the turn

[jnoody]

Villian is loose, VP$IP = 60+, not sure of aggression.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP2 :#A500AF(Villian)/ calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 :#A500AF(Villian)/ calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, Villian checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (7 BB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villian bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>...


I am checking this flop hoping for a safe turn card. Does that seem like a good play? I didn't expect anyone to raise behind me. How is that play?

What if someone to my right had bet the flop? Raise? Still wait for turn? What type of pot odds do I want to be giving so many opponents here?

Thanks.

[Yako]

IF someone to your right bets, it might be a good idea to wait until the turn to raise, but I'm not even sure... So many cards are scary. A, K, Q, a heart, a 7, and there's so many people in the pot... I think you have to raise the flop if the bettor is close to your right (1-2 seats away).

However, if everyone checks to you, you HAVE to bet. Infinite odds is never good. At least give the other players a chance to fold their gutshots and their one overcard hands.

[Ajax410]

Your play is correct...if you're holding 77 and the flop is 236. And even then it's a stretch. The fact is, you're the pre-flop raiser, you should be playing this flop aggressively no matter what happens. By checking the flop, you're giving the guy who called with 34s the opportunity to hit 2-pair on the turn, which is never a good thing. You need to make him pay to beat you - not just sit there and watch the cards hit him.

If someone to your right bets into you, I suggest raising, because there are a lot of cards (TQKA, and heart) which are pretty scary for you. You want to limit the field, not give all your opponents a free look at the turn.

Alex

[Redd]

Because the pot is large, you'd be fine taking it down immediately. So you want to be giving the worst pot odds possible. As Yako said, if you check the flop everyone's getting x:0, or inifinity:1 odds to draw to their hands. While betting the flop still gives everyone pretty good odds (~15:1ish), that's much better than inifinity:1.

The way it played, I would bet out or I'd raise if doing so forced any other player to face 2 bets cold.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Your play is correct...if you're holding 77 and the flop is 236.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is it better to check here? I've been betting out in these spots too and I think I need to learn the distinction. I've in fact been more enthusiastic about betting with 77; since there's fewer friendly turn cards, I've been putting more pressure on the flop in an attempt to fold people.

[TBone]

Anyone that caught any piece of the flop is going to have the pot odds to call a bet on the flop. But...there is almost enough in the pot that anyone that has a pair has the odds to call a turn bet, provided the flop isn't bet! Even someone with just a pair of 3's or T's may have the odds to call a turn bet since there are 7 people in the pot and you're likely going to get at least 2 - 3 callers on any turn bet.

Because there are so many people in this pot and the pot is already giving people such great odds, I'd rather bet and hope people lay their cards down. If the pot was smaller, or if there were just a few people in the pot on the flop, then I think checking would be a better move.

T

[imported_Reaction]

You were the only PF raiser. You have no reason to suspect that you do not have the best hand here.

[ QUOTE ]

if everyone checks to you, you HAVE to bet. Infinite odds is never good. At least give the other players a chance to fold their gutshots and their one overcard hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This pot is so big it would be hard to protect your hand with a rise on the flop(I might still raise it if it came form a person 1 or 2 postions to my right because I was the PF raiser but this would depend on the table).

I like the turn raise with the blank.

[TBone]

It's better to check there because everyone has the pot odds to call your flop bet due to the size of the pot on the flop. However, you're hoping a non-dangerous card comes on the turn, you can bet/raise and then people don't have the pot odds to call your turn bet. In this situation, people are mathematically correct to fold to your turn bet/raise since the pot is no longer laying the odds. If you were to bet the flop and the turn, there would be more money in the pot for people to have the odds to now call your turn bet.

T

[Ajax410]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is it better to check here? I've been betting out in these spots too and I think I need to learn the distinction. I've in fact been more enthusiastic about betting with 77; since there's fewer friendly turn cards, I've been putting more pressure on the flop in an attempt to fold people.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason it's better to often check in these situations is because, if someone DOES call your flop bet (which is very likely), there are no really good cards that could come on the turn. Ultimately, you're better off waiting until the turn to make sure that your baby pocket pair is okay.

Alex

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
It's better to check there because everyone has the pot odds to call your flop bet due to the size of the pot on the flop. However, you're hoping a non-dangerous card comes on the turn, you can bet/raise and then people don't have the pot odds to call your turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

But in the 77 situation there are fewer (if any) safe turn cards than with JJ. So even if they're getting decent odds, we need to give people the chance to fold as soon as possible. I'm thinking about the 'Two Overpair Hands' section in SSHE, where Ed advocates waiting until the turn to raise with AA but not TT (iirc?), partially due to the greater number of scary turn cards with TT.

[AlmightyJay]

I would bet this flop, but waiting until the turn is a concept I don't fully understand how to use yet, so I could very well be wrong. I think when it's checked to you, you have to bet. If someone in EP, for example, bet into you and got callers, you'd want to smooth call and wait until the turn to pop a raise. Can someone tell me if my thinking is wrong?

[TBone]

I didn't realize you were talking about the 77 hand in particular. I was generalizing the situation and not speaking of that particular case. In the 77 hand, I think you're correct that you need to bet out and hope overcards incorrectly bail.

[Ringo_Mojo]

*Replying without reading responses*

So you've got a medium strength overpair to a mostly uncordinated board and 8 people seeing the turn?

And you're expecting a safecard? What exactly would you consider a safecard in this situation?
A heart is going to put 3 to a flush on the board, any Q-K is most likely going to give somebody else a bigger pair. Medium/small cards will probably open up a variety of straight draws.

Bet the flop. Show some teeth and put some of those draws away.

[afk]

Bet. You have the best hand a lot of the time, but a very vulnerable hand as well. You also just gave 7 players a free card. That's horrible. Checking is pretty bad here in my opinion.

[Ajax410]

Betting with a small pair on a flop with undercards, if you think your opponents are likely to call, is not a good decision. You're much better off waiting until the turn, hoping to see one of the few safe cards that's left in the deck, and taking it from there.

The fact is, at micro limits, too many people are going to call to the river with overcards to make betting with a small overpair worthwhile. If you're headsup against someone, absolutely. If you're playing against 6 other guys...it just doesn't make sense.

Alex

[Greg J]

Value bet the flop. Don't try to get fancy. What you are trying to do usually applies when another player bets ahead of you and you will have good relative position if he bets again the next round to protect your hand. Even then, it is often correct to raise the flop. Can you protect yr hand against someone with, e.g. ATo? Two hearts? No. Can you cut down thier odds? Yes. Should you bet b/c you probably have the best hand? Yes.

You are thinking too much. Bet with your good hands.

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why is it better to check here? I've been betting out in these spots too and I think I need to learn the distinction. I've in fact been more enthusiastic about betting with 77; since there's fewer friendly turn cards, I've been putting more pressure on the flop in an attempt to fold people.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason it's better to often check in these situations is because, if someone DOES call your flop bet (which is very likely), there are no really good cards that could come on the turn. Ultimately, you're better off waiting until the turn to make sure that your baby pocket pair is okay.

Alex

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, you have 77 and the flop is 632. I'm having trouble figuring out what safe card can come on the turn. A 7 is the only one I can come up with.

[Ajax410]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, you have 77 and the flop is 632. I'm having trouble figuring out what safe card can come on the turn. A 7 is the only one I can come up with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was trying to broaden my scope to all small pairs - but if you agree with the idea that people are going to be calling your flop bet (since micro players tend to call to the river with overcards with relative frequency), then you should agree that betting isn't going to accomplish much at all.

Alex

[@bsolute_luck]

i really don't understand people's suggestion to check here. you probably have the best hand, bet. it isn't to fold people necessarily since only worse hands will/should be folding.

you make people who are drawing to a flush pay. you make people willing to hold overcards pay. you make people drawing to a straight pay.

by checking, you're giving those people a free look, infinite odds, and you're not winning the maximum you can win with your hand.

[davelin]

Number three (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2032662&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;fpart=all&amp;vc=1) of the three most misapplied SSH principles I see.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Number three (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2032662&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;fpart=all&amp;vc=1) of the three most misapplied SSH principles I see.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was waiting for you to show up /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Number three (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=2032662&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp; o=&amp;fpart=all&amp;vc=1) of the three most misapplied SSH principles I see.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was waiting for you to show up /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Shillx]

There are a few problems with this line:

1) You don't know where the turn bet will come from. It is best to make this play when it goes 3-bets preflop (and you are the 3-bettor) and you act right behind the PFR. So let's say that in this hand MP3 was the PFR and you made it 3-bets. It would sometimes be correct to check behind on the flop and then raise his upcoming turn bet. The problem with checking here is that you don't know if and where a turn bet would come from. If the SB leads out on the turn and gets 5 callers, you won't be albe to knock anyone out with a raise.

2) You should save this play for when you have a strong hand. So with aces or kings this play has its upsides but QQ and JJ are just to vulnerable to check. You would really like to fold out a hand like A4 or K7 and a flop bet might do it.

Brad

[MrWookie47]

I could see calling an EP bet here with the intention of raising the turn for better protection here, but checking behind here is missing out on value. You don't always have to bet to protect. Bet for value. An overpair has a huge equity edge here, especially since no one as told you otherwise.

Please, if you like money, bet the flop.

[Ajax410]

The point that I'm trying to make is this (and please, if I'm not making sense someone please tell me):

1) At micro limits, you are often seeing flops with 4-6 players.

2) Most of these players will call and see the turn no matter what comes on the flop (unless they're forced to call 2 cold...then they'll stop and think and SOMETIMES fold).

3) If there is NO good card that can come when you're holding a small overpair, why put the extra money in the pot when you know that you're just going to get called by 4 people all hoping their overcards will hit?

For those of you who don't know me (I was gone from 2+2 for a long time), I always advocate aggressive play. I just don't think that, unless you're able to raise and force the field to call 2 cold, a bet here is in your best interest. The fact is, you're going to get called, the turn is going to hurt your hand strength, and you're going to end up having to play the turn weakly after betting the flop. That doesn't sound like a great game plan to me.

Alex

[cmwck]

noooooooooooo! please, bet the flop.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's better to check there because everyone has the pot odds to call your flop bet due to the size of the pot on the flop. However, you're hoping a non-dangerous card comes on the turn, you can bet/raise and then people don't have the pot odds to call your turn bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

But in the 77 situation there are fewer (if any) safe turn cards than with JJ. So even if they're getting decent odds, we need to give people the chance to fold as soon as possible. I'm thinking about the 'Two Overpair Hands' section in SSHE, where Ed advocates waiting until the turn to raise with AA but not TT (iirc?), partially due to the greater number of scary turn cards with TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have the examples backwards. With AA you should raise immediately on the flop. With TT you should wait until the turn. With TT you are passing up a small edge on the flop to exploit a bigger edge on the turn.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
The point that I'm trying to make is this (and please, if I'm not making sense someone please tell me):

1) At micro limits, you are often seeing flops with 4-6 players.

2) Most of these players will call and see the turn no matter what comes on the flop (unless they're forced to call 2 cold...then they'll stop and think and SOMETIMES fold).

3) If there is NO good card that can come when you're holding a small overpair, why put the extra money in the pot when you know that you're just going to get called by 4 people all hoping their overcards will hit?

For those of you who don't know me (I was gone from 2+2 for a long time), I always advocate aggressive play. I just don't think that, unless you're able to raise and force the field to call 2 cold, a bet here is in your best interest. The fact is, you're going to get called, the turn is going to hurt your hand strength, and you're going to end up having to play the turn weakly after betting the flop. That doesn't sound like a great game plan to me.

Alex

[/ QUOTE ]

1) True
2) Not always true, besides calling one may even be a mistake for some of their holdings, why not bet and capitalize on their mistake or at the very least get value from our equity?
3) ? There are a lot of cards that can come out on the turn that makes me feel good about my holding.

[Shillx]

There are two ways to play this hand:

1) To get maximum value
2) To maximize our chances of winning the pot

Elaboration:

Value Play #1 - If we are looking to get max value, we should bet the flop. We don't expect anyone to fold a hand that has a fighting chance against us, but if someone calls the flop with a 5-outer, we are making money on his call. With seven other people in the pot, we won't always have the best hand here but our jacks will figure to have the best equity if the hand is played an infinate number of times and thus we bet for value.

Value Play #2 - We can sometimes get value by checking the flop as well. Let's say that we check the flop and the turn is a blank. To our suprise, the SB bets out into the field and everyone in the middle calls. Now we should raise, and this raise is purely for value. We aren't expecting anyone to fold to the raise as it is rare that people will fold for another bet after they put one in. In this situation we passed up on a flop value bet to hopefully exploit a larger turn edge (should a blank fall). If a bad card came on the turn (such as an ace) then we could get away from our hand if the action told us to do so. By waiting to see what the turn brings, we can charge people twice as much money to draw with a lesser risk since there is only one card to come that can beat us.

Maximize Winning - We can't maximize our chance of winning by betting the flop since people don't figure to fold. Our best chance to win this pot is to check the flop and see what the turn brings. To our pleasure we see that the turn is a brick and the action gets checked to the player directly on our right and he bets into us. Now we should raise to maximize our winning chances. We will be giving the 1st coldcaller just 5:1 odds which is enough to fold out a hand like AK or KQ. It is also enough to fold out middle or bottom pair. Obviously anyone with a flush draw or OESD (or a ten) isn't going to fold, but they are paying a steep price to draw and we are making money on these calls. Anyone who decides to call taking way the worse of it is putting money in our wallets so if someone calls the turn raise with a gutshot, he is making a significant mistake. If people decided to correctly fold these hands, they are increasing the hero's chance of winning this big pot (while sacrificing value).

As it all applies to this hand - The problem with checking this hand on the flop is that we don't know who will bet the turn (or if it will get checked to us again). Sometimes an EP player will bet and then we will raise for value. Sometimes we will be able to force everyone to call two bets cold and then we will raise to maximize our winning chances. In general, the bigger the pot the more you should try to max out your winning chances. This pot is big but by no means huge. By checking the flop, the turn will often times get bey by an EP player and thus we are stuck raising the turn for value. But if we are going to raise the turn for value...why didn't we bet the flop for value? This is why I like betting the flop in this hand. If you knew that the player to your right would bet the turn, then checking the flop might have merit.

The last thing to consider is the strength of your hand. With JJ you should be more inclined to bet the flop for value as one of two things might happen:

1) Someone might fold a hand like Qx and increase our winning chances.

2) If a bad card comes on the turn and we get directly bet into, we have a really tough choice between raising and fold. If a queen hits on the turn and the player to our right bets into us on the turn should we raise because he only has a ten? Should we fold because he has a queen?

With black aces on this flop I would like checking more then with JJ. We can be much more confident in a turn raise since there are fewer scare cards (except a /images/graemlins/heart.gif) and it is tough to pull the trigger on a raise when an overcard falls eventhough you will have the best hand often enough to make it the correct play.

So again, the best way to maximize your winning chances are:

1) You have a big hand like AA or KK.
2) If you check behind on the flop, the most likely turn bet will come from your direct right. So if everyone limps, the CO raises and you 3-bet AA on the button (everyone calls) it would almost always be correct to check behind on the flop. Then you would hope to raise the CO's turn bet since he is the most likely turn bettor.
3) The pot is very large. It usually has to go 3 or more bets preflop to consider making this play.

Brad

[just2pimp]

I dont even think the raise on the turn can protect us enough against the flush draw, I think betting out the flop is more for value and definetly raise if someone in front of you does bet

[jnoody]

Ok, here's what I'm getting here after reading all of these posts. Not to be redundant...

There are so many turn cards that could hurt my hand, that I need to try to get as many overcards (any gutshots, OESD's, or flush draws have the odds on the flop to call profitably) to fold. There could be a few A/K/Q-rag hands out there in such a loose game. Basically any card except the non-/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2's, 4's, 5's, or the J/images/graemlins/heart.gif hurts my hand and maybe even those if there are any small PP's. That's more than 3/4 of the cards. A single bet may very well give me 3-4 more safe cards. If even one person folds, it was probably worth it. If I bet, the button may raise or somebody else may check-raise. Even if everyone calls, there are 10.5BB vs. 7BB in the pot on the turn. A bet or raise on the turn will still be effective. So, bet and hope for the best...

Does that pretty much sum it up?