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View Full Version : Open ended straight draw on bubble, what to do?

1C5
04-10-2005, 07:31 AM
Party $22.

Hero's move?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1290)
Button (t765)
SB (t5105)
Hero (t840)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls t300, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (t750) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ?
Phil Van Sexton
04-10-2005, 07:57 AM
Is this a trick question?
1C5
04-10-2005, 08:37 AM
No, just double checking. /images/graemlins/grin.gif
Big Limpin'
04-10-2005, 08:57 AM
Hero types "i got a set, but dont want to be called" into chat, then pushes?

14 outs if called, called maybe 1 time in 3.
Freudian
04-10-2005, 01:30 PM
Think you have to reduce those outs by a fair number.

If a Q/images/graemlins/club.gif or 7/images/graemlins/club.gif falls it may give someone a flush. Your overcards will do you no good if you are up against an overpair, two pair or a set.
tomdemaine
04-10-2005, 01:34 PM
I'd push it pre-flop, you'll pick it up right there most of the time IMO. If not push it on the flop p-p-push it real good. ahem sorry.
Scuba Chuck
04-10-2005, 01:38 PM
With all the short stacks, I'd play for second or third here.

Hero checks.
microbet
04-10-2005, 01:52 PM
What fair number? Maybe 1/10th of an out for the flush draw and maybe 1 out for the 2pair/overpair/trips?
microbet
04-10-2005, 01:56 PM
Seriously? Hero is the shortstack here and your push will have FE over UTG.
Freudian
04-10-2005, 02:07 PM
I would guess hero would have around 10-11 outs if called. Also I would expect him to be behind pretty much always if called. For example a QJ calling not only kills five outs, it results in hero having to improve to win. If overcards are /images/graemlins/club.gif-suited even more outs are gone.

And of course even more importantly, even if hero hits his top pair he may lose.

I don't think outs are what should dictate if you should push here. Likelyhood the other guy will fold are what matters. With the stack/blind-sizes I don't see him having an option.
BradleyT
04-10-2005, 02:07 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Seriously? Hero is the shortstack here and your push will have FE over UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well he limped UTG and put 25% of his stack in, you think he's folding many hands he played here? I don't think there's much fold equity at all here. And because of that, I hate putting all my chips in on a draw with Jack high.

I think a read on UTG is important here. Trying to put him on a hand blindly is almost impossible in this situation but I'm leaning towards a big pocket pair. Anything else he would(or at least should) have raised or pushed.
microbet
04-10-2005, 02:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Anything else he would(or at least should) have raised or pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Big difference between would and should here. Purt near half the time the limp will be out of weakness and most of that means he will fold. Put that together with a good draw and the fact that if you fold you are hurt'n and it is a push, IMO an easy push.
BradleyT
04-10-2005, 02:51 PM
Well that's why I wanted some type of read!

But I do agree that at this level it generally would indicate weakness and some fold equity would probably be there.
Unparagoned
04-10-2005, 02:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anything else he would(or at least should) have raised or pushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Big difference between would and should here. Purt near half the time the limp will be out of weakness and most of that means he will fold. Put that together with a good draw and the fact that if you fold you are hurt'n and it is a push, IMO an easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Preach it, Brother Microbet!!!
Scuba Chuck
04-10-2005, 03:24 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Seriously? Hero is the shortstack here and your push will have FE over UTG.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about this. I'd say you've got a 25% chance of getting him to fold.

One thing to think about is the psychology of the other stacks as well. They are panicing. They may make a mistake first.
1C5
04-10-2005, 04:01 PM
[ QUOTE ]
With all the short stacks, I'd play for second or third here.

Hero checks.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would check and fold to a 300 bet? Are you serious?

(The reason I am posting this hand is that is exactly what I did and ended up getting 4th anyway)

I really think I will push next time in this situation...