Good blind steal attempt?

[crackthis09]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Cr4ck is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Cr4ck raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, CO calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Cr4ck raises</font>, BB folds, CO calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Cr4ck bets</font>, CO calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Cr4ck bets</font>, CO calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

[InFeRn0]

I dont really know what you mean with blind stealing since there are more people in the game then only the blinds, although your play is good but maiby you could check the turn

[deepsquat]

Id raise this from any position. This is a very strong hand in an unraised pot.

[toss]

Turn bet is good, but checking for a free card is better.

[Zoelef]

I would call the flop, and only betting/raising if I'm leading out or I'm last to act with 2+ stil behind me.

Also, I'd rather check-call the turn.

[kapw7]

If he takes the free card then he gives his hand out and he won't get a call after a diamond falls on the river. So he loses 2 BB. His hand is strong enough to bet not fearing a turn raise (CO didnt 3-bet the flop and you dont think he opened with Q-junk). With 9 diamonds and 3 tens plus 3 Kings (partial outs in case CO had KQ) you get around 13-14 outs which justifies a bet with 9.25:2 pot odds.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
If he takes the free card then he gives his hand out and he won't get a call after a diamond falls on the river. So he loses 2 BB. His hand is strong enough to bet not fearing a turn raise (CO didnt 3-bet the flop and you dont think he opened with Q-junk). With 9 diamonds and 3 tens plus 3 Kings (partial outs in case CO had KQ) you get around 13-14 outs which justifies a bet with 9.25:2 pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

with 14 outs you have a 30% equity on the turn. Therefore, your opponent will have to fold to the turn bet more than 20% of the time. He liked his hand enough to bet the flop, and the turn not is not that scary for him, so I don't see him folding often enough for a turn bet to be correct.

[TheHip41]

standard


nh

[kapw7]

You don't bet to make him fold. You bet for two reasons. First to prevent revealing your hand and second for value. Let me try some mathematics and please correct me if i'm wrong:

1st scenario: Check turn and bet if flush with fold by opponet. You win 5.25BB. So if you play 100 times you win
100 X 30% X 5.25 = 157.5 BB

2nd scenario: Bet turn - no reaise (see previous post). If ahead bet otherwise check-fold. If you play 100 times then you win 30 X 9.25= 277.5BB and lose 70 X 1 =70 BB. So you win overall 207.5 BB.
Even if the guy folds 50% of times (too big a number IMO) to your river bet then you win:
15X9.25 + 15X8.25 - 70X1= 192.5BB which is 22% more profitable than 1st scenario

PS: Maybe I cheated a bit b/c in the 1st scenario you can get calls with your better hand. But this is the differnce between betting and not the turn. If you check you get less calls at the river b/c you have revealled your hand.

[jason1990]

[ QUOTE ]
1st scenario: Check turn and bet if flush with fold by opponet. You win 5.25BB. So if you play 100 times you win
100 X 30% X 5.25 = 157.5 BB

2nd scenario: Bet turn - no reaise (see previous post). If ahead bet otherwise check-fold. If you play 100 times then you win 30 X 9.25= 277.5BB and lose 70 X 1 =70 BB. So you win overall 207.5 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
In scenario 2, 70% of the time you lose your turn bet; 30% of the time, you win what was in the pot after the flop (5.25 BB), plus his turn and river call (2 BB). So it should be

30 x 7.25 - 70 x 1 = 147.5 BB

which is less than scenario 1.

[ QUOTE ]
PS: Maybe I cheated a bit b/c in the 1st scenario you can get calls with your better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
You will probably get called very often when a T falls and maybe even a K.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
If he takes the free card then he gives his hand out and he won't get a call after a diamond falls on the river. So he loses 2 BB. His hand is strong enough to bet not fearing a turn raise (CO didnt 3-bet the flop and you dont think he opened with Q-junk). With 9 diamonds and 3 tens plus 3 Kings (partial outs in case CO had KQ) you get around 13-14 outs which justifies a bet with 9.25:2 pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) You're too afraid of villain folding on the diamond. It's not too likely. For all he knows, Hero auto-raised AK on the flop. In fact, it's somewhat *MORE* likely that villain will call the bet because he doesn't want to be bluffed out by the scare card.

2) Hero does not lose 2 BB when he fails to bet the turn. He would only lose the full amount if the flush came in 100% and if villain will call both bets 100% of the time. If we give Hero 13 outs (9 flush outs, 4 pair outs), then Hero makes a winning hand only 28% of the time on the river. So he "loses" a portion of the 2 BB and not the entire thing. (I put "loses" in quotes because of #4 below.)

3) Pot odds for your own hand NEVER justifies betting. Ever. This shows that there is some fundamental misunderstanding of pot odds.

4) We can actually calculate the EV of betting the turn (the pot size is 5.25 BB): We take the EV of winning on the turn by betting, and add the EV of winning by drawing to a good hand on the river. We'll say that villain will call the river bet 75% of the time, because we can't guarantee that he will call.

(fold %) = chance that villain will fold
(miss river%) = chance hero does not hit an out on the river = 72%
(hit river%) = chance hero hits an out on the river = 28%

EV = (5.25)*(fold %) - (1 - fold%) ((-1)*(miss river%) + (6)*(hit river%))
= (5.25)*(fold %) - (1 - fold%) (1.4)
= (6.65)*(fold %) - 1.4

So if villain folds about 20% of the time on the river, it is better to bet rather than check. (Okay, it's actually a bit worse because you risk getting check-raised -- and when you're check-raised, your pair outs are not as likely to be good, which reduces a lot of these numbers... a fair estimate would be to say that villian needs to fold about 30% of the time on the turn for this to be profitable.)

In a heads up situation, betting the turn is often good against passive/weak opponents. Against agressive/tricky opponents, a check is in order (the liklihood of getting check-raised by a better hand goes up).

Edit: I miscounted the outs. Hero has 3 extra gutshot outs.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't bet to make him fold. You bet for two reasons. First to prevent revealing your hand and second for value. Let me try some mathematics and please correct me if i'm wrong:

[/ QUOTE ]

You are indeed betting to make him fold (see my previous post, where (fold%) is the ONLY variable).

I don't think a bet here is really about revealing your hand, because it's very hard for villain to put you on a flush draw here. You've been the aggressor up to this point in the hand, so a check would "reveal" weakness -- but what's weak about your hand? He can't tell if you have JJ, AK, ATs, TT...

If you could guarantee that you will NEVER be check-raised and that villain will ALWAYS call a river bet, then you can bet for value with a hand that only comes in 1/3 of the time (1/3 of the time you lose one bet, 2/3 of the time you win two).

And I just realized I miscounted your outs in my previous post, because I didn't count your 3 gutshot outs. That will change things more in favor of betting the turn since (hit river%) goes up. However, it's not going to change logic. It would be a good exercise to repeat the calculation with the correct number of outs.

[numeri]

[grunching]

pre-flop: This isn't a blind steal attempt since CO has already limped in. It's a raise for value and a good one.

flop: A raise is good here for two reasons. Against two players, every bet that goes in is +EV for you, so if BB calls your raise it's more $$$ for you. The second reason is that it may buy you a free card on the turn.

turn: This bet is only good if you think CO will fold a large percentage of the time. Since CO bet into you on the flop, I imagine some sort of weak TP, which isn't going to fold for a bet. I take the free card instead. If CO hadn't bet the flop, this turn bet would be better.

river: Obvious.

[kapw7]

[ QUOTE ]

In scenario 2, 70% of the time you lose your turn bet; 30% of the time, you win what was in the pot after the flop (5.25 BB), plus his turn and river call (2 BB).


[/ QUOTE ]
You are right. Thanks for correcting me.
"You learn from your mistakes." (Hopefully)

[Greg J]

I would not call this a blind steal so much as a standard value raise for a couple of reason: 1) there is a caller in front of you, and 2) KJs is a pretty decent hand. It's a good restealing hand -- that is if CO open raises (as he should have), it's good to 3 bet here most of the time.

I like yr flop raise. Yr turn bet is marginal, but read dependent, and since you did not provide a read one way or the other, I can't comment. I will often take the free card here, but against players I can push around I will often semibluff. Against calling stations I take the free card.