How do you guys deal with this? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

grimel

04-10-2005, 03:36 AM

Absolute Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls $0.29 (All-In).

Final Pot: 9.04 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 6s 5d (straight, seven high).
Hero has Qc Ac (two pair, aces and queens).
Outcome: BB wins 9.03 BB. 

I have no idea how you guys can take this in limit. This was happening on 3 tables for over 4hrs tonight. I had unreal cards (26% VP$IP with over 20% of my 570 hands grp 4 or better) and was busted all night. Can't drive anyone out. It was making me crazy. I had a PFR of over 10%.

thesharpie

04-10-2005, 03:42 AM

I sit down with more than 5BB is what I do. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Edit: Be glad you saved yourself 21 cents.

homebrewer

04-10-2005, 03:44 AM

Just keep playing solid TAGish poker. That loud sucking sound will go away eventually 8).

cmwck

04-10-2005, 03:52 AM

So.... are you going to change your strategy to always folding AA-TT, AK, and AQ before the flop? Playing these hands always have positive expectation.
Also, please don't run out of chips at a table ; this could cost you a huge pot.

Dave G.

04-10-2005, 03:59 AM

Having a nearby kitten to kick helps tremendously.

cold_cash

04-10-2005, 04:28 AM

Be glad you're in a really good game.

Also, being set all in is pretty much inexcuseable.

grimel

04-10-2005, 04:48 AM

Umm, I called his last $0.29 all in. I had $30+ left.

I'm a tard, that was earlier. This was my last hand of the session. Couldn't take any more.

It got so bad the other at the table were complaining about his calls. PT has him at a LAP.

This was by far my worst night of bad beats at AP. I just bought PT and I'm ready to burn it. Now, I can't rationalize away I was too loose and playing crazy. I kept playing sane (how I don't know).

Doesn't seem like you can punish such crazy play enough. I won most of the hands I took to SD (55%). Most only got MY bets. When I had this nut raising, re-raising, etc to cap the round he'd hit a miracle (rainbow flop, no pairs, runner runner to inside straight) for the win.

I think what really torqued me was looking at PT after this 4hr marathon of torture looking for leaks. I lost $50 tonight - $37 to this one idiot, $13 to another idiot, the rest was spread around fairly well.

Looking at this guys 100+ hands he was waxing rocks, TAG, mice, etc. He won $150+ net. I know he can't be up long term.

Thanks for the venting.

LazyRobot

04-10-2005, 04:52 AM

Hero called all-in and was not put all-in.

Not a lot you can do here. You played it well. NH

grimel

04-10-2005, 04:57 AM

Ty

I just noticed you guys don't know his hole cards 6s5d.

This may haunt me for days. At least I'm going out of town for a couple of days.

the_rookie

04-10-2005, 05:04 AM

Villian was 22-1 underdog to make his hand. 22 out of 23 times you win this hand... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

deepsquat

04-10-2005, 06:49 AM

shocking, these guys are the ones you want at your table though.

lillumultipass

04-10-2005, 07:35 AM

well, I understand how you feel...
that's one of the reason I am considering playing NL... at least you can raise a lot to protect your hand...
but it's true you can loose even more!!!

kapw7

04-10-2005, 08:09 AM

If you cannot take this try No Limit or higher stakes like 2/4. The former b/c you can punish players like that and the latter b/c you will have less players like that. If you are not confident yet to do any of these you need to develop patience (you'll need that anyway) or start playing chess instead.

turaho

04-10-2005, 09:12 AM

Why do you not want to play against people like this? Keep playing solid poker and over time you'll make back all the money you lost and then some and this moron is going to go bust and go back to drooling in a corner somewhere.

Don't forget: he had luck on his side for one night. You have skill on your side forever.

bonaparte

04-10-2005, 09:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Don't forget: he had luck on his side for one night. You have skill on your side forever.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this because it is so true. I'll tell myself this next time I'm being sucked out on.

droolie

04-10-2005, 10:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Ty

I just noticed you guys don't know his hole cards 6s5d.

This may haunt me for days. At least I'm going out of town for a couple of days.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude this happens all the time. This beauty came at the end of a rather long session of getting two-outed....
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 folds.

River: (11.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG has Qd 6d (straight, eight high).
Hero has Qc Qh (three of a kind, queens).
Outcome: UTG wins 13.25 BB. 

Will this hand haunt me? No. I kept playing solid poker and finished the evening up 85BB. The beauty of getting sucked out on is that it encourages bad players to continue playing. If they never hit their longshots you'd be stuck playing against solid players only. Rejoice in the suckouts they are fertilizer. Just remember fertilizer stinks some times.

(The beat I took at the final table of a NL tourney just before going to bed will hurt for a while though...)

grimel

04-10-2005, 10:19 AM

[quote

Will this hand haunt me? No. I kept playing solid poker and finished the evening up 85BB. ....

(The beat I took at the final table of a NL tourney just before going to bed will hurt for a while though...)

[/ QUOTE ]

This I think might be the key, it came at the end of a session where I finished down 67BB.

grjr

04-10-2005, 01:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think what really torqued me was looking at PT after this 4hr marathon of torture looking for leaks. I lost $50 tonight - $37 to this one idiot, $13 to another idiot, the rest was spread around fairly well.

Looking at this guys 100+ hands he was waxing rocks, TAG, mice, etc. He won $150+ net. I know he can't be up long term.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are plenty of other tables at AP, yes? People here have chastized me for "running from bad luck" because I switch tables a lot. I just prefer not to stay in a negative situation.

Before anyone jumps on me again the question was "How do you guys deal with this?" That's how I deal with it. I leave and find greener pastures at another table.

SayGN

04-10-2005, 02:04 PM

Mine was nice too...one of those horrendous losing sessions where everyone nails their runner runners.
Got AKs, flopped the flush.. guy stays in for capped betting on a 2 5 10 board to find the turn and river come both as 10s and his 44 gives him the boat. I never slow played it, i bet everything. He didnt even have the 4 of spades, not that it should make a diference. nothing like being a 98% favorite on the flop and losing. I love ranting sessions ^_^

Ringo_Mojo

04-10-2005, 02:26 PM

Without looking at the results I would play the hand the exact same way.

These things happen, but in the long run you're going to make more money off of the guys who chase after their long shots then you loose in bad beats.

JohnDaFisherman

04-10-2005, 02:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How do you guys deal with this?

[/ QUOTE ]

-Put him on your buddy list, and win a big pot against him the next three times in a row.

-If you get below 12 BBs in your stack, rebuy IMMEDIATELY. You must have enough at all times to cap on all streets.

-RELAX. Poker, especially limit poker, is a game of patience...and variance.

Edit: I really should read all posts in a thread before posting myself. Didn't catch the fact that the other guy ran out of money, not you. The 12 BB minimum is still a good idea, though.

Greg J

04-10-2005, 02:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]

There are plenty of other tables at AP, yes? People here have chastized me for "running from bad luck" because I switch tables a lot. I just prefer not to stay in a negative situation.

Before anyone jumps on me again the question was "How do you guys deal with this?" That's how I deal with it. I leave and find greener pastures at another table.

[/ QUOTE ]
Honestly, what works for me is to get up and walk around my chair. If that doesn't work I change deck colors, or if I'm at Paradise change drinks -- the Chichi is my lucky one!

If that doesn't work I get a couple of live chickens from the Haitian woman that lives next door, then it's off the the graveyard for a sacrifice! The key is after you have slaughtered the chickens you have to swing them counterclockewise presicely 7 times. This is important b/c if you swing them clockwise your dick won't work for a week.

JohnDaFisherman

04-10-2005, 02:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Rejoice in the suckouts they are fertilizer. Just remember fertilizer stinks some times.

[/ QUOTE ]

What a great quote. To paraphrase Mason Malmuth: No suckouts (short-term luck)==> no encouragement for fish==> no fish==> no money for us. This quote sums all that up in a simple manner.

It's also the reason why, despite the best efforts of ESPN and the Travel Channel, limit will outlast NL in popularity (another Malmuth quote.)

grjr

04-10-2005, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

There are plenty of other tables at AP, yes? People here have chastized me for "running from bad luck" because I switch tables a lot. I just prefer not to stay in a negative situation.

Before anyone jumps on me again the question was "How do you guys deal with this?" That's how I deal with it. I leave and find greener pastures at another table.

[/ QUOTE ]
Honestly, what works for me is to get up and walk around my chair. If that doesn't work I change deck colors, or if I'm at Paradise change drinks -- the Chichi is my lucky one!

If that doesn't work I get a couple of live chickens from the Haitian woman that lives next door, then it's off the the graveyard for a sacrifice! The key is after you have slaughtered the chickens you have to swing them counterclockewise presicely 7 times. This is important b/c if you swing them clockwise your dick won't work for a week.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, you do all that and then stay at that table and lose some more money. I'll be at another table winning some pots. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results--Albert Einstein.

cold_cash

04-10-2005, 03:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you cannot take this try No Limit or higher stakes like 2/4. The former b/c you can punish players like that and the latter b/c you will have less players like that. If you are not confident yet to do any of these you need to develop patience (you'll need that anyway) or start playing chess instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first part of this is no good.

AlmightyJay

04-10-2005, 03:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
River: (6.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls $0.29 (All-In).

[/ QUOTE ]

Never, ever, EVER start a hand with less than 12BB at the table!!

bschlief

04-10-2005, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you cannot take this try No Limit or higher stakes like 2/4. The former b/c you can punish players like that and the latter b/c you will have less players like that. If you are not confident yet to do any of these you need to develop patience (you'll need that anyway) or start playing chess instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first part of this is no good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg J

04-10-2005, 03:40 PM

Awesome dude. I'm totally convinced. I think your theories might represent the paradigm shift in how we view downswings.

In fact, I think you should make your post about "The strategy of switching from unlucky tables to green pastures", or some similar title on the General hold em forum. I am sure it would get an enthuisiastic reception. You are even free to use my idea about the sacrificing chickens in the graveyard, but be sure to give me credit okay?

GrunchCan

04-10-2005, 04:00 PM

grjr

04-10-2005, 04:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Awesome dude. I'm totally convinced. I think your theories might represent the paradigm shift in how we view downswings.

In fact, I think you should make your post about "The strategy of switching from unlucky tables to green pastures", or some similar title on the General hold em forum. I am sure it would get an enthuisiastic reception. You are even free to use my idea about the sacrificing chickens in the graveyard, but be sure to give me credit okay?

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG, a stranger appears with opinions that threaten all of our basic tenets. Let us crucify him before he weakens the fundamental roots of our religion. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Seriously though, you don't have to agree with me but you don't have to make fun of me either. I've heard about the 2+2 smugness and now I've experienced it first hand. My life is complete.

There are many things in this world that are unexplainable. If 2+2 members would prefer that I not offer alternative opinions on some matters then I will gladly cease posting.

GrunchCan

04-10-2005, 04:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There are many things in this world that are unexplainable. If 2+2 members would prefer that I not offer alternative opinions on some matters then I will gladly cease posting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you feel better now, having exacted your moral revenge on the mean ol 2+2 posters?

You are wrong to suggest that the solution to the OP's problems is to change games to take on better opponents. Here's why:

If you cannot beat the extremely bad opponents that the OP is up against, opponents who play too many hands, take them too far, and have little conception about anything beyond thier two cards, then you have exactly zero hope of beating opponents whom you acknowledge to be much better. To think that you can is simply illogical.

We welcome dissenting opinions here. If you are willing to be engaged in debate, we will engage you. But you can't come here, give terrible advice, and then when you are shot down uncerimoniusly (sp) berate us for just being jerks. At least, you can't without being a jerk yourself.

Welcome to the forums.

Greg J

04-10-2005, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Let us crucify him before he weakens the fundamental roots of our religion. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
I once bought into that religious dogma you spoke of called mathematical probability. But your "greener pastures" theory has shown me the light. Goodbye Sklanskly! Hello grjr!

Seriously dude, Doyle Brunson openly wrote that he beleived in ESP, and Mike Caro said people of Asian decent are more prone to gamble it up. Such crackpot notions are not popular on this board -- we are very mathematically oriented. If you say something that goes against that be prepared for some ribbing. I was making a joke. You are gonna need a much thicker skin if you are gonna stay around with theories that have no basis in probability.

It's like your 8th grade algebra class here: be prepared to show your work.

flo

04-10-2005, 04:36 PM

Nobody is expecting a different result. Downswings ('bad luck') are a part of the game.

grjr

04-10-2005, 04:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]

You are wrong to suggest that the solution to the OP's problems is to change games to take on better opponents. Here's why:

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did I say to take on better opponents? There are weak players on all of the tables at the lower limits. What is wrong with leaving a table where one or two bad players are winning all the money to find a table where the bad players are losing all their money? Can you explain why this is terrible advice?

[ QUOTE ]
then you have exactly zero hope of beating opponents whom you acknowledge to be much better. To think that you can is simply illogical.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe I ever said anything like this. If that's the way you interpreted it then I must have done a poor job of communication.

[ QUOTE ]
and then when you are shot down uncerimoniusly (sp) berate us for just being jerks. At least, you can't without being a jerk yourself.

[/ QUOTE ]

I only wrote that because I'm not sure some of the members of this forum know how they are perceived by those outside of this forum. I like to think I'm not a jerk but I will respond in kind.

Thank you for the welcome.

grjr

04-10-2005, 04:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Such crackpot notions are not popular on this board -- we are very mathematically oriented. If you say something that goes against that be prepared for some ribbing. I was making a joke.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can take good natured ribbing since I often give it out myself. Your comments didn't feel like ribbing to me so if I misunderstood then I apologize.

Believe it or not not I am VERY grounded in mathmatics--long term. Short term though there are many other factors that can come into play. I've been in and around gambling for over 30 years and have seen a lot of things that defy explanation.

You see the hot and cold runs everywhere, shrug them off as variance, and choose to ignore them. I choose to embrace my hot runs and the cold runs of others and conversely to shun my cold runs and the hot runs of others. Is that really so wrong?

GrunchCan

04-10-2005, 05:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am VERY grounded in mathmatics--long term.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I choose to embrace my hot runs and the cold runs of others and conversely to shun my cold runs and the hot runs of others.

[/ QUOTE ]

These 2 things are directly contradictory, and you simply can't pursue one without disregarding the other. If for instance you start loosening up when you are running well in an attempt to leverage your short term luck, you are relying on luck to be a factor in your EV. Long-term-math based play doesn't rely on short term luck; it relies on math.

GrunchCan

04-10-2005, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure some of the members of this forum know how they are perceived by those outside of this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean outside 2+2? I for one am aware of the perception. Frankly, I don't care. If they don't like us becasue we're not warm-fuzzy, then that is thier perogative. Personally, I came here in the first place becasue I recognized the high concentration of brilliance in the 2+2 forums, and I am a subscriber to the tough-love philosophy. But 2+2 isn't for everyone, and that's fine. Good luck to them.

Greg J

04-10-2005, 05:10 PM

droolie

04-10-2005, 05:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]

You see the hot and cold runs everywhere, shrug them off as variance, and choose to ignore them. I choose to embrace my hot runs and the cold runs of others and conversely to shun my cold runs and the hot runs of others. Is that really so wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

Part of being a successful (and sane) limit player long-term is to ditch this type of thought pattern. Admire or deride streaks after they have already happened not while they are happening. If you alter your gambling strategy one iota based on wether you or your opponents are currently running hot or cold it is a major leak. If you think there is some mystical properties at play other than natural variance you are a going to be mocked here.

All that being said you are right about getting up and leaving when a table has gone south for you.

I have no problem with getting up and leaving a table I'm floundering on. It has nothing to do with running bad and thinking I'll get better cards somewhere else. I won't. The cards are the same everywhere. I know this like I know there is no god. When I leave a table it's always because of dynamics with other players at a the table. Perhaps I fear that my losing repeatedly has hurt my table image in a way that will make winning future hands more difficult. Leaving is then about finding a table where I can rebuild an image that will be more successful for my style of play. Other times I'll leave is when I realize my seat sucks relative to the other players or there's some other dynamic at play that makes me think winning will be more difficult at that table than at some other random table. It has nothing to do with expectations of future cards but my anticipation of what will transpire with the other players future betting.

If I gauge conditions to be unfavorable to a different randmom typical table I leave. As close as I get to mystical is that sometimes if i'm feeling hostility towards another player I'll leave just to start fresh and get back on track with no baggage. Sometimes I just don't want to have to keep looking at the username ISUCKOUTONU anymore once it's happened a few times. It help relieves some building tilt when you can put bad stuff in your past.

grjr

04-10-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am VERY grounded in mathmatics--long term.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I choose to embrace my hot runs and the cold runs of others and conversely to shun my cold runs and the hot runs of others.

[/ QUOTE ]

These 2 things are directly contradictory, and you simply can't pursue one without disregarding the other. If for instance you start loosening up when you are running well in an attempt to leverage your short term luck, you are relying on luck to be a factor in your EV. Long-term-math based play doesn't rely on short term luck; it relies on math.

[/ QUOTE ]

One last reply here. If you choose to concentrate solely on the math and completely disregard the gambling aspect of the game then, in my opinion, that's a mistake that will cost some money in the long run. I may be totally wrong but it's what works for me. If I can nip a 100BB downswing in the bud it not only saves me money it improves my mindset from then on.

Greg J

04-10-2005, 05:51 PM

You think a guy is starting to get something and then...

[ QUOTE ]
One last reply here. If you choose to concentrate solely on the math and completely disregard the gambling aspect of the game then, in my opinion, that's a mistake that will cost some money in the long run. I may be totally wrong but it's what works for me. If I can nip a 100BB downswing in the bud it not only saves me money it improves my mindset from then on.

[/ QUOTE ]
...wow. Just, wow.

kapw7

04-10-2005, 05:53 PM

It was the sort of answer you get for the sort of question he asked.

Both parts are correct though. No limit game punishes ppl who call against the odds and in 2/4 games you have less ppl that call against the odds. What is that you don't like?

Shillx

04-10-2005, 06:00 PM

Such crackpot notions are not popular on this board -- we are very mathematically oriented.

It would be terrific if people would try a lot harder at this. EV calculations have gotten about as rare as T-rex sightings around here recently. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Brad

Shillx

04-10-2005, 06:04 PM

You see the hot and cold runs everywhere, shrug them off as variance, and choose to ignore them. I choose to embrace my hot runs and the cold runs of others and conversely to shun my cold runs and the hot runs of others. Is that really so wrong?

You probably aren't a very good poker player if you think this way but if you wrote a book titled "Beat the Casino", I'm sure you would make millions. Do you also have a system for roulette that is failsafe?

Brad

grjr

04-10-2005, 06:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
All that being said you are right about getting up and leaving when a table has gone south for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is what I wrote to the OP which started this whole mess in the first place:

[ QUOTE ]
There are plenty of other tables at AP, yes? People here have chastized me for "running from bad luck" because I switch tables a lot. I just prefer not to stay in a negative situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

When I first suggested this in another thread I was accused of suffering from tilt. While this may be true I still feel it's good advice and I'm glad that someone here agrees with me.

grjr

04-10-2005, 06:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You think a guy is starting to get something and then...

[ QUOTE ]
One last reply here. If you choose to concentrate solely on the math and completely disregard the gambling aspect of the game then, in my opinion, that's a mistake that will cost some money in the long run. I may be totally wrong but it's what works for me. If I can nip a 100BB downswing in the bud it not only saves me money it improves my mindset from then on.

[/ QUOTE ]
...wow. Just, wow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg, do you not agree that poker is a gambling game? If not then I guess we'll never find some common ground. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

wabe

04-10-2005, 07:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You think a guy is starting to get something and then...

[ QUOTE ]
One last reply here. If you choose to concentrate solely on the math and completely disregard the gambling aspect of the game then, in my opinion, that's a mistake that will cost some money in the long run. I may be totally wrong but it's what works for me. If I can nip a 100BB downswing in the bud it not only saves me money it improves my mindset from then on.

[/ QUOTE ]
...wow. Just, wow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg, do you not agree that poker is a gambling game? If not then I guess we'll never find some common ground. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I think what Greg is trying to point out is that dropping off a table because all you are getting is 84o/72o/K6o and sticking with the tables where you are getting high pocket pairs/flush and straight draws that complete goes completely against your statement of being grounded in long-term mathematics. Jumping off a table because of short-term results goes against the philosophy.

turaho

04-10-2005, 08:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you not agree that poker is a gambling game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's play a gambling game, shall we? You will think of a number between 1 and 68. Everytime I can guess the number you're thinking of, you give me a dollar. Everytime I get it wrong, I'll give you a dollar. Agreed?

Now let's say we play 20 times, and I win 15 of those times. You know for certain there isn't any cheating going on. Would you want to stop playing against me?

However you answer here is very telling. If you would stop playing, then you are looking at "luck" as a power that an opponent can exploit. Most fish think this way--that's why they stay in when their only hope is a runner-runner straight.

I hope that you can clearly see that these people are idiots.

Poker is nothing more than a series of offers to play the variations of this game. When you know the odds are i your favor (like my example), you put your money in. If your opponents give you great odds to play and still manage to beat you, the answer is hardly to stop taking them up on their offers and finding a game where the odds aren't as good.

That said, if changing tables will help you psychologically (for example, if it prevents you from going on tilt and playing bad poker), then go right ahead. But remember that playing someone who is willing to call all the way to the river when their only hope is a runner-runner straight is EV+ as hell and looking for better opponents who will fold with losing hands isn't.

Greg J

04-10-2005, 08:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You think a guy is starting to get something and then...

[ QUOTE ]
One last reply here. If you choose to concentrate solely on the math and completely disregard the gambling aspect of the game then, in my opinion, that's a mistake that will cost some money in the long run. I may be totally wrong but it's what works for me. If I can nip a 100BB downswing in the bud it not only saves me money it improves my mindset from then on.

[/ QUOTE ]
...wow. Just, wow.

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg, do you not agree that poker is a gambling game? If not then I guess we'll never find some common ground. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Poker = gambling
Gambling, is by nature, mathematical.
That is why I bolded what I did.
Friendly advise: stop playing poker now. You don't get it. You will loose all your money.
Caustic advise: play at my table. Please!

grjr

04-10-2005, 08:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think what Greg is trying to point out is that dropping off a table because all you are getting is 84o/72o/K6o and sticking with the tables where you are getting high pocket pairs/flush and straight draws that complete goes completely against your statement of being grounded in long-term mathematics.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify this I don't drop off a table because I'm getting bad cards. I drop off because I'm losing money. Most of your biggest losses come when you're getting great hands but they're always second best; not when you're getting bad starting hands.

davelin

04-10-2005, 08:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Greg, do you not agree that poker is a gambling game? If not then I guess we'll never find some common ground. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Define "gambling"? Yes there's money involved, but I think you see poker as a game of hot and short runs that can be used to one's advantage.

davelin

04-10-2005, 08:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think what Greg is trying to point out is that dropping off a table because all you are getting is 84o/72o/K6o and sticking with the tables where you are getting high pocket pairs/flush and straight draws that complete goes completely against your statement of being grounded in long-term mathematics.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just to clarify this I don't drop off a table because I'm getting bad cards. I drop off because I'm losing money. Most of your biggest losses come when you're getting great hands but they're always second best; not when you're getting bad starting hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does changing tables have to do with anything then?

Greg J

04-10-2005, 08:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What does changing tables have to do with anything then?

[/ QUOTE ]
For the record: I stand by my sacrificing chickens in the graveyard technique.

droolie

04-10-2005, 08:29 PM

grjr- Two questions...

1. Do you agree with the sentiment that each deal is random and the players at the table and events of a previous hand have no bearing on what cards will fall next?

2. Do you believe that a player who has been "running hot" is more likley to get favorable cards the next hand or less likely or the same as everybody else?

wyoak

04-10-2005, 08:48 PM

superstition, while not mathematically "correct", isn't necessarily -EV. if, for instance, you take two bad beats causing you to switch to another table with similar players and play the same sound game, are you really losing value?
i guess you could say the time it takes you to switch tables is costing you some fraction of a BB, but other than that I can't see it as -EV.

now, if going on a hot/cold streak causes you to tilt it's definitely -EV, but I think that's pretty obvious. conversely, if switching tables keeps you off tilt, it's definitely +EV.

my whole point is that being superstitious isn't necessarily a bad thinga as long is it doesn't affect the core of your play. That said, most people who believe in hot or cold streaks do let it affect how they play.

grjr

04-10-2005, 09:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Greg, do you not agree that poker is a gambling game? If not then I guess we'll never find some common ground. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Define "gambling"? Yes there's money involved, but I think you see poker as a game of hot and short runs that can be used to one's advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gambling is risking money on an uncertain outcome. In the short term poker IS a game of hot and cold runs as is every gambling game. The difference for poker of course is it's not played against the house so the better players will win in the long run assuming they can beat the rake. Remember, if there was no luck in poker then Phil Helmuth would win every time. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I'm just suggesting ways to limit those short term losing streaks that everybody has. To me, that does not fly in the face of the long term mathematics. If we were machines that could play perfectly every time then the cold streaks wouldn't matter because we would know we weren't contributing to the streak with bad play. I am not a machine so anything I can do to limit the cold runs makes me money.

string4

04-10-2005, 09:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Don't forget: he had luck on his side for one night. You have skill on your side forever.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is going up on the wall, what a wonderful mantra to use when mini-tilts begin...thanks!

davelin

04-10-2005, 09:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Greg, do you not agree that poker is a gambling game? If not then I guess we'll never find some common ground. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Define "gambling"? Yes there's money involved, but I think you see poker as a game of hot and short runs that can be used to one's advantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gambling is risking money on an uncertain outcome. In the short term poker IS a game of hot and cold runs as is every gambling game. The difference for poker of course is it's not played against the house so the better players will win in the long run assuming they can beat the rake. Remember, if there was no luck in poker then Phil Helmuth would win every time. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I'm just suggesting ways to limit those short term losing streaks that everybody has. To me, that does not fly in the face of the long term mathematics. If we were machines that could play perfectly every time then the cold streaks wouldn't matter because we would know we weren't contributing to the streak with bad play. I am not a machine so anything I can do to limit the cold runs makes me money.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can empirically check for yourself to see if moving to another table really affected the "cold streak" or not. We'll all be interested to see what you show.

Greg J

04-10-2005, 09:22 PM

You see, you have to make the most out of your hot and cold streaks. I'm really not sure why you are not making a killing and living the high life playing high stakes roulette and Keno in Vegas.

grjr

04-10-2005, 09:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
grjr- Two questions...

1. Do you agree with the sentiment that each deal is random and the players at the table and events of a previous hand have no bearing on what cards will fall next?

2. Do you believe that a player who has been "running hot" is more likley to get favorable cards the next hand or less likely or the same as everybody else?

[/ QUOTE ]

My logical side says of course 1. is true and and 2. is the same as everybody else. But...my practical side sees too many examples of the inverse to completely ignore it. If that's superstition or tilt then so be it. Like I told my wife the other day, "I AM NOT A MACHINE, DAMMIT!" /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Greg J

04-10-2005, 09:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]

My logical side says of course 1. is true and and 2. is the same as everybody else. But...my practical side sees too many examples of the inverse to completely ignore it. If that's superstition or tilt then so be it. Like I told my wife the other day, "I AM NOT A MACHINE, DAMMIT!" /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
What I wan't to know is if your logical side and your practical side got in a fight, who would win?

This thread is a lot of fun btw!!

grjr

04-10-2005, 09:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Poker = gambling
Gambling, is by nature, mathematical.
That is why I bolded what I did.
Friendly advise: stop playing poker now. You don't get it. You will loose all your money.
Caustic advise: play at my table. Please!

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on Greg, this is pretty harsh. I've never lost long term in any gambling game in my life and I don't intend to start now.

grimel

04-10-2005, 09:47 PM

How much greener than a nut case calling with anything can it get?

I was playing 3 tables. PT had 3/4 of the players as dice, taz, etc.

All that money sitting there ....

grimel

04-10-2005, 09:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If you cannot beat the extremely bad opponents that the OP is up against, opponents who play too many hands, take them too far, and have little conception about anything beyond thier two cards, then you have exactly zero hope of beating opponents whom you acknowledge to be much better.

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel insulted, degraded, and spat upon. I demand satisfaction - dueling keyboards at dawn. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

istewart

04-10-2005, 09:51 PM

There has been some real pwnage laid down in this thread.

Greg J

04-10-2005, 09:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've never lost long term in any gambling game in my life and I don't intend to start now.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well it's hard to argue with that. I'm glad your system apparently works with other games too. Supplementing my poker income at the craps tables and roulette wheel is a truely inspiring idea! I've been thinking of breaking into the world of high stakes Keno. Think you can give me a few pointers? /images/graemlins/grin.gif

grimel

04-10-2005, 09:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]

You mean outside 2+2? I for one am aware of the perception. Frankly, I don't care. If they don't like us becasue we're not warm-fuzzy, then that is thier perogative. Personally, I came here in the first place becasue I recognized the high concentration of brilliance in the 2+2 forums

[/ QUOTE ]

You find it in all areas. One place that tries to bring the cream to the top and make all the forumites the best they can be. The other forums want it to be easy and don't like it when some place won't let the fantasy go unchallenged.

Greg J

04-10-2005, 10:00 PM

what other poker forums are we talking about? Seriously, are there any others worth reading?

grjr

04-10-2005, 10:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How much greener than a nut case calling with anything can it get?

I was playing 3 tables. PT had 3/4 of the players as dice, taz, etc.

All that money sitting there ....

[/ QUOTE ]

If that nut case and those other bad players are taking my money and giving it to everyone else then I'm leaving. I'm not sticking around and putting in more money in the hope that things will turn around soon. Sure, if I played those same guys long enough I would take all their money but who's to say I won't run out of money or patience before that turnaround comes.

It's much easier for me to go find another nutcase that isn't winning. If you'd rather hang in there because it's a "good table" then that's your prerogitive. You asked how I deal with that situation and I told you and look at all the trouble it's caused. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Ralf

04-10-2005, 10:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Greg, do you not agree that poker is a gambling game? If not then I guess we'll never find some common ground. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone here knows poker is a gambling game, pal. (I hope) What they don't know is that gambling is some magical phenomenon that defies mathematics and probability. Perhaps you'd like to elaborate on this revolutionary theory, it would be good for some laughs.

grjr

04-10-2005, 10:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Greg, do you not agree that poker is a gambling game? If not then I guess we'll never find some common ground. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Everyone here knows poker is a gambling game, pal. (I hope) What they don't know is that gambling is some magical phenomenon that defies mathematics and probability. Perhaps you'd like to elaborate on this revolutionary theory, it would be good for some laughs.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

GrunchCan

04-10-2005, 11:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You mean outside 2+2? I for one am aware of the perception. Frankly, I don't care. If they don't like us becasue we're not warm-fuzzy, then that is thier perogative. Personally, I came here in the first place becasue I recognized the high concentration of brilliance in the 2+2 forums

[/ QUOTE ]

You find it in all areas. One place that tries to bring the cream to the top and make all the forumites the best they can be. The other forums want it to be easy and don't like it when some place won't let the fantasy go unchallenged.

[/ QUOTE ]

You find what in other places? Brilliance or people that don't like us 2+2ers?

grimel

04-10-2005, 11:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I moved down limits in my last downswing, which was brutal. Was there a mathmatical reason to do this? No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, I beg to differ. Your bankroll was dwindling. Moving down limits maintains a low risk of ruin. IOW, maintaining sufficient bankroll for the limit being played may very well mathmatically mean moving down - depending on severity and length of the downswing.

Greg J

04-10-2005, 11:07 PM

thepokerforum.com has a board dedicated to bad beats if that tells you anything.

Greg J

04-10-2005, 11:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Umm, I beg to differ. Your bankroll was dwindling. Moving down limits maintains a low risk of ruin. IOW, maintaining sufficient bankroll for the limit being played may very well mathmatically mean moving down - depending on severity and length of the downswing.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it's very sweet that you beg to differ. Technically you are correct that my risk of ruin with 750 bbs at 2/4 is lower than a 1500 bb roll at 1/2. Thanks for straightening me out there buddy. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

GrunchCan

04-10-2005, 11:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just suggesting ways to limit those short term losing streaks that everybody has.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are suggesting changing to another table for psychological reasons, I agree. Poker is a psychological & draining game, and sometimes we just need to breathe different air for our own well-being. The quality of the decisions we make is what determines our earn in the long term. If we are not thinking well becasue of our environment, it only makes sense to change our environment while simutaneously excerising our ability to adapt.

If you are suggesting that cold streaks have momentum of thier own, and the cards you are dealt are effected by your current luck ration, then I disagree. You seem well-reasoned & smart, and I suspect you know this conclusion is illogical and wrong. Even supposing it were true that the hottness or coldness of the streak you are currently on did actually effect your future deals, changing tables isn't going to help anyway.

jaxUp

04-10-2005, 11:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Umm, I beg to differ. Your bankroll was dwindling. Moving down limits maintains a low risk of ruin. IOW, maintaining sufficient bankroll for the limit being played may very well mathmatically mean moving down - depending on severity and length of the downswing.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it's very sweet that you beg to differ. Technically you are correct that my risk of ruin with 750 bbs at 2/4 is lower than a 1500 bb roll at 1/2. Thanks for straightening me out there buddy. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I always like to keep a 2k BB roll because variance is a bitch.

GrunchCan

04-10-2005, 11:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
thepokerforum.com has a board dedicated to bad beats if that tells you anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's a juicy tidbit I found there.

[ QUOTE ]
Anytime you are suited you should call a raise that is equal to almost half your stack, even if the other guy is going all in. Hey, you never know, you might hit a flush on the flop or 2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

grimel

04-10-2005, 11:23 PM

What negative situation? I was "surrounded" by people who are bad at math. VERY bad at math - at THREE tables. I don't care what is happening, if someone is cold calling 2 bets or 3 betting from UTG with 42 off suited that is a table I want to have a seat - ANY seat. If they'd let me I'd take 3 seats.

Two of these people at a table is a dream. Three is near orgasmic. More than 3 and the drool starts making it hard to play.

This one particular fish happened to hit the runner runner several times (both huge pots) to me and others at the table (ended up $100 for the 100 hand session). Long term he's toast. He had wild swings all night. It was just insanely frustrating to get monsters cracked to a 65off and 92 off for monster pots. Having it happen on 3 tables at the same time was just insane.

grimel

04-10-2005, 11:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you also have a system for roulette that is failsafe?

[/ QUOTE ]

Play either blackjack, craps, or poker.

grimel

04-10-2005, 11:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
despite the best efforts of ESPN and the Travel Channel, limit will outlast NL in popularity (another Malmuth quote.)

[/ QUOTE ]

God I hope not. Limit drives me nuts. I really am trying to learn how to play good limit.

grimel

04-10-2005, 11:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You mean outside 2+2? I for one am aware of the perception. Frankly, I don't care. If they don't like us becasue we're not warm-fuzzy, then that is thier perogative. Personally, I came here in the first place becasue I recognized the high concentration of brilliance in the 2+2 forums

[/ QUOTE ]

You find it in all areas. One place that tries to bring the cream to the top and make all the forumites the best they can be. The other forums want it to be easy and don't like it when some place won't let the fantasy go unchallenged.

[/ QUOTE ]

You find what in other places? Brilliance or people that don't like us 2+2ers?

[/ QUOTE ]

What was so complicated? :P

In any endeavor, there will be those that want it done in the best possible manner. They tend to congretate. Even those of lesser ability in the group are respected because they TRY do it to the best of their ability. Conversely, there will be those who promise peaches and cream (the Van Patton WPT videos w/ Moneymaker's learn these tips and tricks and you can sit down w/ a world champion and beat him tonight) and don't want to hear it's about hard work, study, applying the proper techniques, etc. The second group will ALWAYS deride the first group as being cold, non-PC, etc.

The first group doesn't care and continues along it's merry way.

People will always hate 2+2 types in any given field. When I played league pool, everyone (ON MY TEAM) carped that I'd spend time practicing, shooting drills, 100 break shots, 100 stop shots, etc. I was taking the "fun" out of it. I always thought the fun was WINNING. WINNING took putting the balls in the pockets. I didn't drink before my match. I just wasn't any fun even if I did win a LOT.

Now, I play poker. You see where I'm at.

GrunchCan

04-10-2005, 11:51 PM

Ah, I see.

Well, all I can say is, welcome to the forum.

grimel

04-10-2005, 11:51 PM

I don't know if I should either bang my head on the wall or sharpen the barbs on my hooks.

GrunchCan

04-10-2005, 11:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if I should either bang my head on the wall or sharpen the barbs on my hooks.

[/ QUOTE ]

2+2 is a whetstone. All other poker forums are drawers for butterknives. If you're willing to lose a little metal, you can sharpen your barbs here.

PokerBob

04-10-2005, 11:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Absolute Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls $0.29 (All-In).

Final Pot: 9.04 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has 6s 5d (straight, seven high).
Hero has Qc Ac (two pair, aces and queens).
Outcome: BB wins 9.03 BB. 

I have no idea how you guys can take this in limit. This was happening on 3 tables for over 4hrs tonight. I had unreal cards (26% VP$IP with over 20% of my 570 hands grp 4 or better) and was busted all night. Can't drive anyone out. It was making me crazy. I had a PFR of over 10%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Move to 15/30, where people respect your raises.

Firefly

04-11-2005, 12:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I feel insulted, degraded, and spat upon. I demand satisfaction - dueling keyboards at dawn.

[/ QUOTE ] You'll fit kid, you'll fit :P. There is a wealth of knowledge on the fourm, you've just begun to scratch the surface, lord knows I have only got 1% from this fourm so far :P

grimel

04-11-2005, 12:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I feel insulted, degraded, and spat upon. I demand satisfaction - dueling keyboards at dawn.

[/ QUOTE ] You'll fit kid, you'll fit :P.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now, I am offended.

My grandkids are kids (all 3 w/ 4th on the way). My kids are kids (well, the baby is 17). I'm working on my 2nd marriage (so I'm a slow learner). I'm thinking my 8-track players are older than a good portion of the forum.

Now, I'm wondering how many know what an 8-track, 78, 33, and 45 are? I think I just dated myself. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Even if I do have the sleep schedule of an old school hacker.

Russ McGinley

04-11-2005, 01:30 AM

I don't want to make another thread for my venting so I'll just post it here and join you inventing about losing with big hands. I just finished up the Empire bonus, 1718 hands, -2.63 BB/100. I am beginning to wonder if AKo EVER wins. Here are my win totals for my big premium hands:

AA - 4/7
AKs - 4/8
AKo - 1/15
AQs - 2/4
AQo - 7/19
KK - 4/5
QQ - 3/10
JJ - 3/5
KQs - 2/5
KQo - 4/21

NET - 34/99 for a net loss of $4.50. (playing .50/1)

Yes, getting the most profitable hands in the game lost me money. I just have to keep repeating "it's short term, it's short term".