Sunday Break: Overhyped

Many of the articles I read about the upcoming Belmont mention Sunday Break as the horse who will upset War Emblem. I simply don't see it.


First, he is going to be a horrible value. I would suspect that he gets bet down to around 4-1 or so. Maybe lower.


What exactly has this horse accomplished? He stuck around close to the pace in a speed favoring Wood Memorial. Then he misses the Derby due to earnings and mops up a small and soft Peter Pan field at 1-2 odds. At 1-2 with a perfect trip stalking a fast 45.8 pace, he still only managed to win by one length, and ran an uninspired Beyer of 99. I think that Perfect Drift and Request for Parole both look better than this horse, and they will get off at 8-1 and 20-1, respectively assuming they both run.


I might modify my stance as we get closer, but this horse looks like a classic hyped up sucker horse.

Nothing against War Emblem, but given the fact we havent had a triple crown winner in a long time and several horses in previous years have failed in this spot, I think you have to play a long shot in this race. I have not studied the race that closely yet, but I agree that Sunday Break, given the odds it will go off at, is not a very good play.-Big Al--

Couldn't agree more. Sunday Break has been treated like a soft horse by Drysdale, and according to Thoro-Graph, is ready for a big bounce. I'm going with Essence of Dubai. He flopped in the Derby, but I'll take my chances.

Although I agree with your assessment of Sunday Break in that he will be absolutely no value, I do think he has a chance to win the race.


He does look outclassed by the figs, but I respect Drysdale as a trainer too much to ignore his chance of winning. He doesn't run horses just for the sake of running them. He is cautious to a fault. He scratched AP Indy out of the Derby years ago because he had a very minor injury (he would have been the favorite). He ended up taking the same route with AP Peter Pan and Belmont, both victories. Drysdale also made a comment prior to the Derby that stuck in my head. He does not hype his horses at all. They asked him about the other horses and their speed pedigrees which gives them an edge in accumulating graded earnings in prep races, leading up to the Derby. He said that he much prefers a talented colt and will live with the consequences of not rushing them into a stakes race.


He's a late developing colt who has shown more ability each time he has raced. Will he win the Belmont? Probably not. But I do think he is a serious contender. I also predict he will win the Travers at Saratoga this summer and be a factor in the BC Classic. It is a very weak year for older horses.

Although I agree with you that he will be bet down as an underlay, it would be folly to dismiss the chances of any 3-year old in any route race. If you look at WE prior to the Ill Derby, his best fig was a 98. It jumped 14 points in 20 days and to show that it was no fluke, he raised it to 114 in the Derby (although it went down in the Preakness maybe due to the faster pace).What could have explained this improvement? Physical maturity. Just like humans in their adolescent stage much like a "shorty" growing 6-8 inches in height to become a high school basketball star, a horse can literally grow likewise overnight. Although SB may be overhyped as you say, you still have to consider the seemingly remote possibility that he could upset WE. As he was bet down in his last race could indicate that a lot of people out there like him and predicted his win notwithstanding the weak field. But could'nt we say the same thing about WE in the Ill. Derby when he went off at odds of more than 20-1?

I've seen the AP Indy comparisons and this horse is nooooooo AP Indy. AP Indy was a proven multiple G-I winner coming into the Belmont. Even so, he wasn't going to be the favorite in the Derby, though it sure seems he would have won. Arazi was going to be the overwhelming favorite no matter what.


He probabaly has a good future ahead of him. Could he win the Belmont? Yes. I just don't think its very likely. And we all seem to agree he will be a substantial underlay.


But, part of this is because I have become convinced that War Emblem is the real deal. As long as Baffert can keep him in one piece, I think we are looking at the beginning of something special.


If Macho Uno, Congaree and Red Bullet continue to move forward, the handicap division could get much tougher by year end.

War Emblem had a very strong 5 furlong work the other day...he will be tough. I am not planning on wagering much on this race as it does look like War Emblem is very fit. Still havent decided who I will bet yet, but it will most likely be a horse in the 8-12 to 1 range.--Big Al--