JJ on the button

[Che]

Stars $100+9 Multi, Blinds 15/30

UTG (1608) limps, UTG+1 (1992) minraises.

Earlier: UTG opened in EP for 120 and UTG+1 raised to 330. Folded back to UTG who called. UTG check-raised a doublesuited rag flop all-in and UTG+1 called. Both had QQ.

Also, UTG+1 played the first 5 hands of the tournament, all very aggressively. Settled down since then so I guess he was just running hot.

Otherwise, no reads on those two.

2 folds, call (1430), fold, I call on the button with JJ (2135).

Blinds and UTG all call.

Flop: 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif (Pot=360) I have the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

SB checks, BB (1470) bets 240.

BB is a solid TAG. Plays few hands preflop, but plays very strong postflop, betting hard with one pair hands and draws.

Fold, UTG+1 calls, fold, I call, SB folds.

Turn: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (Pot=1080)

Check, check, I bet 530, call, call.

River: 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (Pot=2670)

Check, check.

Hero … ???

Comments on any street welcome,
Che

[Che]

Different details are in bold.

Stars $100+9 Multi, Blinds 15/30

UTG (1608) limps, UTG+1 (1992) minraises.

Earlier: UTG opened in EP for 120 and UTG+1 raised to 330. Folded back to UTG who called. UTG check-raised a doublesuited rag flop all-in and UTG+1 called. Both had QQ.

Also, UTG+1 played the first 5 hands of the tournament, all very aggressively. Settled down since then so I guess he was just running hot.

Otherwise, no reads on those two.

2 folds, call (1430), fold, I call on the button with JJ (2135).

Blinds and UTG all call.

Flop: 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif (Pot=360) I have the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

SB checks, BB (1470) bets 240.

BB is a solid TAG. Plays few hands preflop, but plays very strong postflop, betting hard with one pair hands and draws.

Fold, UTG+1 calls, fold, I call, SB folds.

Turn: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (Pot=1080)

Check, check, I bet 530, call, call.

River: 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (Pot=2670)

BB pushes 640, UTG+1 folds.

Hero … ???

Comments on any street welcome,
Che

[Che]

Different details are in bold.

Stars $100+9 Multi, Blinds 15/30

UTG (1608) limps, UTG+1 (1992) minraises.

Earlier: UTG opened in EP for 120 and UTG+1 raised to 330. Folded back to UTG who called. UTG check-raised a doublesuited rag flop all-in and UTG+1 called. Both had QQ.

Also, UTG+1 played the first 5 hands of the tournament, all very aggressively. Settled down since then so I guess he was just running hot.

Otherwise, no reads on those two.

2 folds, call (1430), fold, I call on the button with JJ (2135).

Blinds and UTG all call.

Flop: 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif (Pot=360) I have the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

SB checks, BB (1470) bets 240.

BB is a solid TAG. Plays few hands preflop, but plays very strong postflop, betting hard with one pair hands and draws.

Fold, UTG+1 calls, fold, I call, SB folds.

Turn: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif (Pot=1080)

Check, check, I bet 530, call, call.

River: 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (Pot=2670)

BB checks, UTG+1 pushes 1132.

Hero … ???

Comments on any street welcome,
Che

[adanthar]

I think it goes check, fold, fold.

Can I add a scenario 4 that says Hero reraises with JJ PF?

[M.B.E.]

I think the flop decision is very tricky. It reminds me a bit of the hand David Sklansky posted in the WPT forum, where Jennifer Harmon bet into four players on a queen-high flop, and he folded AA.

The difference is that he had players left behind him to act, whereas with your JJ, you only have one player left behind you (the SB).

Despite that, there's certainly an argument to be made for folding the flop. Three-handed, your jacks might currently be the best hand, but I don't think they're very likely to hold up to the river if these other two players are still in.

Folding the flop seems a bit weak, however. I also don't really like calling, because it just defers the difficult decision to the turn (if the BB bets out again).

You might actually consider minraising the flop (to 480). If anyone reraises, then fold, but if they call and check to you on the turn, you can check behind (unless it's a jack).

Part of the reasoning behind this is that the preflop minraiser may well have KK or AA. If you minraise the flop (representing a set), he will be afraid to bet into you heavily on the turn and river; thus you get to showdown relatively cheaply.

The main disadvantage to your playing it that way is that one of your opponents might reraise all-in with a flush draw, and you would then be folding the best hand.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it goes check, fold, fold.

Can I add a scenario 4 that says Hero reraises with JJ PF?

[/ QUOTE ]

with the stacks involved I think flatcalling is not a bad play, raising to say 300 kinda sucks when the 1200ish stack moves in on you

[CardSharpCook]

I think it goes 1. Value bet about 250. 2. fold 3. Fold.
On the turn, they are calling with AT, Ah, Kh, AA/KK/QQ (or other hands that beat you). Actually, now that I think about it, Check, fold, fold. Who's calling that big turn bet?

CSC

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it goes 1. Value bet about 250. 2. fold 3. Fold.
On the turn, they are calling with AT, Ah, Kh, AA/KK/QQ (or other hands that beat you). Actually, now that I think about it, Check, fold, fold. Who's calling that big turn bet?

CSC

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, when they both call the turn bet, and then the straight card comes on the river and they check, I think it is very likely that BB at least (and possibly both of them) have us beat. The only hand that BB could possibly have called the turn bet with, that we now beat, is AT with the ace of hearts. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think that BB would have folded any other ten, including KT with the Kh.

In scenario 1, when they both check to us on the river, my first thought was to push because the most likely hands that beat us are a set or an overpair, which have a hard time calling all-in with the straight- and flush-friendly board. However, I didn't realize that BB only has 640 chips left. I don't think he can fold a set for that amount when the pot is 3310. That's not even considering UTG+1. So I will join the consensus in saying check.

Scenario 2, BB pushes 640 and UTG+1 folds: If we want to maximize CEV, we need to call if the probability we have the best hand is greater than 16.2%. I think actually it's less than half of that, so I say fold.

Scenario 3, BB checks, UTG+1 pushes 1132: This is actually tougher, because even though I think BB has us beat, I think he might fold here if we call, despite the huge pot odds. If he's got two pair or a set, he really cannot like his hand on that board when a player has bet all-in and another player has called. Next question is, how likely is it that UTG+1 has us beat? I think he probably does have us beat, with maybe a 60% probability. When he bet, it's actually less likely he has us beat than if he had checked. Because I don't put him on a straight or a flush; I put him on an overpair or maybe a set. Anyway, if we knew for sure that BB would fold if we called, than we should call since the pot odds are 3.359:1. So there only would need to be a 23% probability that we have a better hand than him, and as I said I think the actual probability is higher than that. But there is some chance that BB will overcall if we call. We should be able to factor that in to the calculation. Suppose there's a 50% chance that BB will overcall if we call, that sounds right. When he does overcall, he will always have a better hand. And suppose that's stochastically independent of the 60% chance that UTG+1 has us beat. So 20% of the time we win 3802, 20% of the time we win the 492 that UTG+1 put in the side pot, but lose 640 to BB, for a net loss of 148, and 60% of the time we lose 1132.

(0.2 x 3802) + (0.2 x (-148)) + (0.6 x (-1132))
=760.4 - 29.6 - 679.2
=51.6

So the EV of calling is positive, barely. (It's really within the margin of error, because if we think the chance UTG+1 has us beat is 65% rather than 60%, then the EV works out to -96.4.)

I'm saying check, fold, call. That's my final answer.

[TheTimeIsUp]

I think it is check, fold, fold as well. The only actually somewhat debatable hand is 1. I like a nice value check (wtf is a value check) there, since I do not see people calling a bet wit anything less than KT, and there are many, many hands that have you beat here. VALUE CHECK #1.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
with the stacks involved I think flatcalling is not a bad play, raising to say 300 kinda sucks when the 1200ish stack moves in on you

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling would be fine under most circumstances and I probably do just call a real raise, but raised first five hands + minraise = tool in my book so I reraise and then probably call a push. I don't mind playing it weaker if UTG isn't in the hand but I'd like this one HU.

[zaxx19]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it goes check, fold, fold.



[/ QUOTE ]

[BriPlay]

my opinion..
CHECK!!!
st8 or fl beat you..otherwise you win.
only callers are those who have you beat
thanks for the post
Brian

[BriPlay]

after performing no calculations whatever..i say RUN AWAY!!

[BriPlay]

Here Here!!
the call Preflop causes all the trouble you are in!

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling would be fine under most circumstances and I probably do just call a real raise, but raised first five hands + minraise = tool in my book so I reraise and then probably call a push. I don't mind playing it weaker if UTG isn't in the hand but I'd like this one HU.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can call a push if you reraise. You'd be calling something like 1800 into a pot of 2100 with JJ. Even though he might be a tool, there's still too large a chance he has QQ, KK, or AA.

[adanthar]

Whoops. For some reason I thought he had 1200 or something.

With 2K, I agree it's a fold. No reason not to reraise here, though, if only because if I call and undercards flop I lose a lot more than 200 when he has an overpair anyway.

[M.B.E.]

What was the result? (In each of the three parallel universes.)

[Che]

In the real hand, it was checked to me and I checked.

BB had 77 for the turned set while UTG+1 had KK (with /images/graemlins/heart.gif).

I think two lines for this hand are reasonable:

1. Raise PF and fold to UTG+1's reraise. If he flatcalls, I've got problems, but I probably don't lose as much as I did here.

2. Call PF and play no set/no bet post flop. This was my original mindset, but I should have checked behind on the turn if this was my approach (or better yet - folded the flop although a minraise sounds good now that MBE mentioned it). I tried to change ships midstream and got myself in trouble.

BTW I strongly suspected AA/KK from UTG+1, so his turn check was what threw me. I was planning to fold to his turn bet until he checked which tempted me to bet (and I succumbed to the temptation /images/graemlins/frown.gif).

As for scenarios 2 and 3, I think fold is clearly the way to go in both cases.

Thanks to all who replied,
Che

[M.B.E.]

It's not particularly surprising what your opponents were holding.

I gave it a bit more thought, and I think on the river it's very close between checking and pushing. A bluff can be correct even though it will probably not succeed.

The action up to now (including your opponents' river checks) makes it very unlikely that either of them has a flush. But your play on the flop and turn strongly suggests that you have a flush. In addition, with 4-5-6-7 on board they have to worry about a straight as well.

I think that if you had pushed on the river, there'd be about a 30% probability that you would pick up the pot (2670). Then let's say a 40% probability you lose 640 and a 30% probability you lose 1132. That's CEV of +205.

Whereas if you check, the probability your JJ is good is very small, I'd say about 5%. So the CEV of checking is +134.

I think that bluffing the river does have greater CEV, but it's close. Tournament considerations probably make this a check even though that is lower CEV.