Bubble AK hand

[Scuba Chuck]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t3970)
Hero (t1295)
BB (t4525)
UTG (t210)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero....

My thoughts:
Damn this is a good hand.
Damn, shorty is almost gone
Damn, I need to make a run for first with a hand like this.

BB will have pot odds to call, and he didn't get big by being tight.

Thoughts?

[Benholio]

If you are pretty sure your fold equity is close to 0%, then you can treat this the same as if big stack had already pushed with any-two.

It sucks folding this hand, but I can't think of a way to play it profitably without BB being a really tight or really passive player.

[1C5]

Damn, tricky one, what did you end up doing?

[Freudian]

In my experience bigstacks are as anxious to get in the money as everyone else. I don't see this as an autocall for the BB if hero pushes.

I would push and if I lose so be it. I see tiny stacks survive both two and three all-ins often enough not to completely form my bubble strategy around that happening.

[Costanza]

Interesing... I was just getting ready to post this hand. Thought I'd just add it here to get some contrasting opinions on raising versus calling a raise with AKo here.

SB was playing good big stack poker. I'd say his range of hands is easily any 2.



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t6325)
Hero (t790)
UTG (t750)
Button (t135)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t6325 (All-In)</font>, Hero...

[yanicehand]

This one you posted is much easier for me to call than the other one is to push... but either one isn't easy for my $ oriented mind. In your scenario, the BB is most likely pushing with anything under the sun, seeing as he knows you could even fold a premium hand like AK. (like you said yourself)

[Freudian]

That one is more interesting. In this situation you know he will constantly push every hand until one is knocked out. I have never been in this exact situation. I think I might have folded here, for the simple reason that button will be put all-in twice before you have to do anything else.

[microbet]

$EV
.297 push, get called and win
.221 fold

If you are really sure he'll call with any 2, you are like 63% to win (a guess - no pokerstove here)

.63 x .297 = .187

Not really close. You need to be about 75% favorite to win, which means only big PPs.

If he did fold, though, your $EV would be .256. I'm just gonna guess here, cause again no pokerstove, but if he folds bottom 60% of hands it is a good push.

[galahad_187]

This seems like an easy all in imo.
your only slightly behind to a low pocket pair, and an enormous underdog to AA or KK.
if BB calls, chances are good it holds a good long term gain, afterall in short hand he may call you with any ace, any two broad way cards, ect. Play to win, play to win, play to win. For a while i tried playing the 'out blind the short stack' game, and these guys would get 4 lucky all ins in a row all the bloody time, but when i get short stacked i'm gone.

Assuming this is your typical everyday SNG, not some high dollar thing you probably shouldn't be in (because of your bankroll, not skill). In which case i'd be more conservative.

[Apathy]

I would push Scubas and fold yours.

Scubas FE in no where near 0, your raise should get a ton or respect, and there is no reason to just settle for third here, I think its really close though.

[microbet]

There is a significant difference in the stacks. In the first you are far behind 2nd place and in this one you are tied for 2nd. I'm not running anymore numbers tonight, but I'm pretty sure you should be more willing to take a chance in the second situation.

[galahad_187]

rereading this i feel like an ass. you guys are questioning weather this is push is a good idea even though its one of the best hands and its short stacked.
Could someone explain in good detail why exactly this seems to hold no long term profit? is it because the BB would have odds to call with 72o? and only not have odds to call with any ace/king lower kicker? Thus, if he calls then its a correct call, and you haven't caused your opponent to make a mistake, thus no money for you? did i read into this correctly? please brutally correct me if im wrong.

[adanthar]

1)If he's not folding to a push, I would *call* and then proceed only if I hit the flop. If he raises PF, I fold.

2)I fold.

[microbet]

You are right. It is because it was given as an assumption that he would be called with any two. If this is the case, he needs to be a heavy favorite, given the chip stacks. AK is not nearly as big a favorite over, say, 84 as it might seem.

If you don't assume any two calls then it is different. BB doesn't necessarily have odds to call with any two. He's only getting 1.45 to 1.

[galahad_187]

wow this is insane, i never even thought about it like that. I would have pushed AK 100% of the time in this situation. Then again, in lower buyin SNGs you wont have poeple calling with hands like 10 7 that often, atleast not for the 'right' reason.

Thanks for the info, gord i wish there was some college class ic ould take on this heh

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
rereading this i feel like an ass. you guys are questioning weather this is push is a good idea even though its one of the best hands and its short stacked.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey this forum is all about learning, don't feel like an ass. The reason to not push here isn't because it will lose you chips, but because it will lose you dollars. When someone else is really shortstacked on the bubble (UTG here), and likely to be forced all in from the blinds, you need a really big advantage to make it worth risking your tournament life.

Why? Because if you fold, the shortstack has a good chance of busting out, which guarantees you 3rd place money or better. If you go all-in, you may get $0, and even if you win, you are not guaranteed better than 3rd place money. Having said that, it is often bad to try to slide into 3rd, but sometimes it is the right play to fold and wait for someone to potentially bust out.

[ QUOTE ]
Could someone explain in good detail why exactly this seems to hold no long term profit? is it because the BB would have odds to call with 72o? and only not have odds to call with any ace/king lower kicker? Thus, if he calls then its a correct call, and you haven't caused your opponent to make a mistake, thus no money for you? did i read into this correctly? please brutally correct me if im wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

When considering the blinds, it is not impossbile (or uncommon) for it to be correct to push, and correct to call at the same time. Thats because of all of the dead chips in the pot from the blinds. All 3 players could actually make +EV moves in the same hand 3-handed, etc.

[microbet]

Well, to clarify, I don't think BB will call with any 2.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
All 3 players could actually make +EV moves in the same hand 3-handed, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically, I don't think that is right. They could certainly all make the correct decision, but sometimes the choice is between a rock and a hard place, I mean -EV and more -EV.

[Maulik]

[ QUOTE ]
wow this is insane, i never even thought about it like that. I would have pushed AK 100% of the time in this situation. Then again, in lower buyin SNGs you wont have poeple calling with hands like 10 7 that often, atleast not for the 'right' reason.

Thanks for the info, gord i wish there was some college class ic ould take on this heh

[/ QUOTE ]

Any 400 statistics class would easily help you here. If you go to UMD, Professor Benjamin Kedem is great.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
All 3 players could actually make +EV moves in the same hand 3-handed, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Technically, I don't think that is right. They could certainly all make the correct decision, but sometimes the choice is between a rock and a hard place, I mean -EV and more -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I should have specified +CEV. Surely the +$EV of all actions will be $0.

Take this situation:

1000/2000 blinds, after posting:
UTG: 2500 (AJo)
SB: 1500 (77)
BB: 500 (Q8s)

All-in will be a +CEV move for all 3 players, even if all the cards are exposed.

[Sunshine]

wow, this is a great thread, I've been playing single-table tourneys and have been comming in 4th quite abit (4th or greater ~60% of the time) and have never 'pulled back' on the reigns, so playing to get into the $$ has great merit

[microbet]

I see your point, but are you sure a push is +EV for UTG?

[microbet]

Well, don't over-generalize this situation. There is not always a very tiny stack on the bubble.

[Gramps]

I'd push if in doubt, though I don't think it's a clear call either way. Actually, I think it's pretty damn even.

It'd take a very loose BB to call 100% of the time - more likely he's going to fold some of his trash hands (which you really want him folding, it's the Ax and Kx hands you don't mind him calling with as much). Pushing and folding BB gets you to 1695 - you have a bit of fold equity which you don't really have if you fold. Of course, if UTG makes it through the blinds, you're probably going to fold that fold equity right back away...

What's tough is even if you get called and win, you're still 3rd chip stack. Good thing is you now have 2590 and are in the mix for 2nd or 1st...but putting your likely 20% payout at risk is a high price to pay for a roughly 65% shot (AKo vs. random hand) at doubling up.

If you fold, you have 1095...if UTG wins his all-in in the BB, you may get chipped down pretty goot. One good thing is if you pick up a decent hand next hand, you don't have to fear pushing (since if either big stack calls you, short stack will have to beat you both, and you'll have to finish last to get 4th place). And, he'll probably have to make it through the blinds twice to survive long enough to have a shot at 3rd.

I must be going through a weak-tight stretch. I'm starting to think fold. The reward really doesn't kick arse enough to justify the risk. If you get called and win, what's your prize pool expectation, like 30%? If you fold, while you will get 4th on occassion, you'll also come back and get a few 2nds and once in a while a 1st - I'd guess your expectation is &gt; 20% by folding. Of course you have to add in the % of the time BB just folds giving you chips, and what that does to your prize pool expectations vs. you folding your AK, etc., ow, ow, my head is starting to hurt...

Ramble, ramble, ramble...

I think a push or fold is fine.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
I see your point, but are you sure a push is +EV for UTG?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Well, actually if you split the suits up just right, you might be able to make it -0.001% CEV or something. :P I was throwing hands into twodimes.net calculator to try and find three really even hands for this purpose. :P

[JasonP530]

I dont mind a push here. The BB will likely not call with any two for 900 more, and will fold some hands you want him to fold(that are only 2-1 underdogs). If UTG survives, the blinds will cripple you when it comes around, I dont think thats right. I dont think the BB will call off with any two, and if he does, you will be much better off going for first with a larger stack. Anyone agree?

[JasonP530]

Incidentally, how would you play it if you had 3000 or so in the SB instead of the other large stack. Would you be more or less likely to push into the BB and his big stack?

[Scuba Chuck]

I didn't say that villain was loose. I said villain is smart, and will make calls. My opinion is that he would call with top 3 hands.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Incidentally, how would you play it if you had 3000 or so in the SB instead of the other large stack. Would you be more or less likely to push into the BB and his big stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

That changes thing significantly. BB now runs into risk of ruin. I'm just saying that in this situation, my stack is just small enough (any larger, and that changes the landscape) to call.

[prepotency]

Honestly, it may not be conventional but I'd just call the SB and hope BB checks it. Personally, I consider my AKo as a flop hand this late in the tournament. If the BB raises all-in, I'd be pissed off but I'd still fold I think. IMO this hand is worth the 200 on a chance that you're seeing the flop. If you are forced to, slipping into third is probably your best option here.

Another thought: If you have to fold and the short stack gets lucky and doubles up, you will get the chance to push him for his stack when you're on the button and he's BB. I think the big stack will have less incentive to call an all-in (and you are likely to steal) because he's potentially going against two hands instead of one.

Maybe the big stack will just evsicerate you all, who knows? Thoughts?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe the big stack will just evsicerate you all,

[/ QUOTE ]


Your first post and you use that crazy word?

[lehighguy]

This is a much much easier call then the other hand (which BTW should be a push).

[prepotency]

[ QUOTE ]
Your first post and you use that crazy word?

[/ QUOTE ]
What? Not a fan of disembowelment?
I thought this forum was friendly to the new blood.

[The Yugoslavian]

I think against most players this is a push.

Against some players it is a call/fold or call/push on a nice flop.

There are a few players I guess you should just fold outright to....

Also, I think hero has more FE here than others do....BB has pot odds I guess but still needs a pretty good hand to call and make it +$EV for himself (not that BB is even thinking this). What I *do* think the BB will think is 'damn, this hand sucks....I'll be second stack if I lose and the SB would only push a big hand....I fold.' Many will only think the first thought...'this hand sucks.' Unless you have clear evidence that the BB has been calling with ridiculously 'bad' hands in pot odds situations...I think pushing is most profitable here.

Yugoslav

[JasonP530]

If you had 3k, how would you play it? I generally move in and hope to be called. Occasionally raise to 1k and hope he comes over the top. Any other way to play it?

[RDWallace]

limping in with the AK is a horrible move. Any competent player will set you all in knowing that you would have pushed any hand with which you would call all in. Dont limp it.

[johnnybeef]

recently i asked adanthar this:

[ QUOTE ]
i always see you playing the odds. tell me about a situation in which odds should be thrown out the window in your eyes.


[/ QUOTE ]

his reply was this:

[ QUOTE ]
Hands that affect folding equity (this isn't really one of them), hands where folding moves you up a spot ITM (every forum regular should know what those are), hands where you have a great read on someone's play (I don't post those and don't expect any of them to be posted since you can't get much out of them), and hands where calling or folding are very close but (for example) folding leaves you more chips early or calling gives you a better table image.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think we have a winner