Well Bill What Do You Think About the Kings Now?

Maybe speaking too soon but I like the way the Kings are playing and the emotion that they are playing with.

I hope they pull it off, I've got plenty of money on them at +375 (before Game 2) on the hunch that they could be in this position if they got some breaks. If I had to guess, they will close it out Friday. More than their emotion or Bibby's play, I think they have the right strategy and its one they can pull off. Other teams aren't good enough, but they have gone mostly to a strategy of letting Shaq do his thing and not letting the rest of the Lakers beat them (well maybe Horry got away). Kobe's illness will be talked about, but it still has been a bad series for him and he is putting in Allen Iverson type games with 30 points on a ton of shots. That is the perfect spot for the Kings. Further, they might have finally seen the light and will stick with their attacking offensive style. They beat Dallas and will beat the Lakers if they keep going hard to the basket. It got Shaq out of the game and really leads them to quality shots when they are agressive. The periods where they just settle for jumpers and generally look lazy are the times when the Lakers make runs at them. If they can get Peja even at 90% by Friday then the Lakers are in trouble because he is too important to them to forget, even if they have gotten it done without him.

One of the things the Kings have done well I think is defend the other guys besides Kobe and Shaq. With a healthier Peja they will be able to perhaps throw another player into the fray of guarding Kobe. Divac is picking his spots well. I honestly think the Kings will come out smoking next game a lot like game 4. Kings will need to shoot better from the line next game.

either before the season or a few weeks into the season, WildBill posted SAC at 20-1 / 25-1 as great value to win the NBA. I looked at it, thought about it, and agreed and plunked some money into it. Since then I've actually hedged out of it, but clearly it was a super money winner. Just want to give credit where it is due.

I hope they pull it off, too. Expect the Kings to get brutalized by the officials in game 6, though. With the game in LA and the increased revenue of a game 7 and an LA/Boston NBA Finals, expect team Stern to work their magic.

Does Stern change his mind from game to game? I'm rooting for them, but the Kings got every single call possible in game 5. Shaq's last two fouls were phantom calls.


I simply think most of these officials are incompetent. I've never really bought into any of the conspiracy theories. I remember in the mid-90's, Bulls fans thought that Stern wanted NY in the finals and NY fans thought he wanted Jordan in the finals. So both thought the officials were against them. Whatever.

Having either the Bulls or the Knicks in the finals would be a financial wet dream for the league.


Having the indominable Lakers facing two elimination games in one series is great for the league, too. The artibrary nature of NBA officiating is one of the main reasons why I can't bring myself to watch anything but the fourth quarter of an NBA game. As for tomorrow night's game, offer me the Kings at +200 and I still wouldn't touch it.

The NBA already made its money from NBC. That's the flaw of the age-old conspiracy theories. The NBA gains zero other than gate. No one is risking the financial stability of the league to make an extra $2 million by having one more game.


Are you saying that if Horry's shot hadn't been good in game 4, that somehow the refs would have changed their game 5 bias from pro-Sacramento to pro-LA?


Sacramento was about +280 in both games 3 and 4. I suspect that the line will be similar in game 6. Hard to turn that down on what seems to clearly be the superior team. But if you are so certain that the NBA won't allow the Lakers to lose, then you should bet the house on the Lakers regardless of the price, right?

Something is going to determine how much NBC (or another station) is going to pay the NBA when the current contract expires. What do you suppose it is?


As for your second paragraph, I don't have a definite answer. I'm leaning towards a "yes", though.


As my local paper doesn't list money lines, I assumed that the Kings would be around +180 tomorrow. I'd probably bite on Sacramento at +300. That bias has more to do with LA having two truly unguardable players and the most clutch shooter the NBA has seen since Larry Bird retired than any conspiracy theory.

I have to say this incessant complaining about the refs is overdone for two reasons. First of all there is complaining in EVERY sport. Calling the NBA refs bad is silly because everyone is convinced the umps give Glavine and Maddux too big a strike zone, give the receivers too many calls in pass interference calls, swallow the whistles when its a tie game in hockey, etc. I think a lot of it comes from a complete lack of appreciation for how hard it is to ref a game. We have great views of the action from a distance, where its easier to spot things, especially with the speed they happen at. Up close you see little things, but only if you have the proper angles on it. Sure there is no doubt there is some bias towards the stars, but hey its part of the game. Second there are thousands and thousands of people that wish they were refs, working for peanuts for the possibility to make the majors, just like the competition for spots playing. You are going to tell me these guys are terrible and they are missing out on people that can do it better? Of course not, there might be slightly better people out there locked out by the union and seniority, but I don't think you can make a case that there are hundreds of people that wouldn't make mistakes waiting for a phone call for the job because its not the case.


As for the line its about +250 on Sac, give or take a few dimes. The line is ridiculously high as it has been all playoffs for the Lakers at home. People still love betting on them, but boy have they paid for it so far with only one winner to go with 6 losers. The Lakers are just like last year, a real value on the road and a questionable bet at home. The Kings are the same, they feed off the road games and get too much value on the road. In the Spurs series there was about the smallest home court edge I have seen, it was about 3 total points as the Lakers were 3.5 on the road and 6.5 at home. I think this series should see about the same with the favorite in each game around 1 or 2 point favorites.