NEPC hand....

[Snupoker]

Played on day 1. Did fairly well going into the dinner break with T26000. Get moved to a much tougher table with multiple large stacks. I fold for a while through levels 7-8 (blinds 150-300 and 200-400) and lose a pot to a shortstack with AQ vs 1010 on the flop of A-10-2. I picked up virtually no hands at this table and after a few steals gone awry pick up this hand at the beginning of level 9.


I am T12,000 in MP with blinds of 300-600 and 100 ante on a 9 handed table. UTG limps, UTG+1 raises to 3500 (approx. 12,000 behind). I look down to AQs (hearts). What is the correct play here? Do I have any folding equity with a push, is a call correct?


Take into consideration the fact that only 2 more levels were to be played on friday and that going into sunday with a stack below T15,000 seemed virtually worthless and my cards for the past 3 hours had been deader than dead. Post respones please.

[adanthar]

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Take into consideration the fact that only 2 more levels were to be played on friday and that going into sunday with a stack below T15,000 seemed virtually worthless

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It's not.

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and my cards for the past 3 hours had been deader than dead.

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That doesn't matter.

It's a 5K tournament. If you're not gonna be patient now, what stakes will it take to play your best?

[Prime Time]

Don't be fooled 15K is fine.
Two double ups and you are the chip leader.

In the 500 NLHE I was very low from bubble time until we got down to 27. Kept fighting and clawing. Once we got to 18, I started moving well. By the time we adjourned for the final table the next day, I was surprised to see I was chip leader.

Don't give up!
Have a positive attitude.
W/ that said GL, and stay out of my pots tomorrow.

Pete

[schwah]

unless UTG+1 has gotten way out of line, this is an easy pass.

EP raise after UTG limp is a pretty big sign of strength. i'd say you're way behind about 75% of the time, and almost never way ahead. your fold equity is right around 0.

[SossMan]

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unless UTG+1 has gotten way out of line, this is an easy pass.

EP raise after UTG limp is a pretty big sign of strength. i'd say you're way behind about 75% of the time, and almost never way ahead. your fold equity is right around 0.

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i'd agree with just about everything here except that his fold equity isn't 0. He likely has some fold equity, but just not enough to make up for the times that he's up against AK or QQ.

[youngin20]

He is in EP, the only raise you can manage is a push, I would say lay it down. Wait for a better spot! Stay patient, getting antsy in your pantsy is not good poker.

[Snupoker]

Ok, I understand this was a very marginal spot to risk the tournament. What if I had put the UTG raiser on a steal (which I did) as he bet about 20% of his stack (which was an odd bet for him) and looked like he didnt want to commit his whole stack.

Therefore, after thinking for a short time I pushed for 12k. Folded back to the initial raiser as I predicted.
5 minutes later, he is torn on a decision. Pot is at T17,500 and he has to call 9k more. Thoughts?

[unglee]

Thoughts? I think he had JJ-QQ, but I'm feeling more QQ here. Did he show?

[wjmooner]

I do believe you are getting him to lay down 99-JJ here. Probably not the best push, but with your read it isn't horrible.

WJ

[Lurshy]

Just my take...

While there is a chance he was stealing, he showed strength with his bet, but doesn't really want action. He doesn't know that he wants to commit such a large portion of his stack so late in the day.

From your description, I would put him on a medium strength PP, you have fold equity with 99 and lower. I think he makes a crying call with 10 10 or JJ, and is somewhat happy when he sees you are just on a resteal with two overs.

He could even be contemplating a crying call with AK, but I can't see him calling with any hands that you are ahead of.

[Snupoker]

This is the thought process that I took. I figured the only hands that would make an easy call were AA, KK, and QQ. Contingent on my read of him not being that strong I made my move. Hands like 88-JJ would be very difficult to call in this spot leaving only 4k left if he were to lose. The problem was that he was one of the weaker players (relatively) at my table. What hands do people call with here and what can you lay down. I think I call only with AA, KK and maybe QQ. Anyone?

[unglee]

Describing him as "weak" is fine, but in what sense? Is he weak-tight, as in, he'll talk himself into folding QQ? Or is he weak as in he'll call a push with 99?

Obviously, you have more of a read on him than I do, and some of this depends on your own table image. If you've been playing relatively few hands, this gives him a reason to fear your push. Obviously AA-KK call you here, and QQ will most times as well. Whether he calls or fold with TT-JJ depends on his read of you--personally (although I may be looser than most), I call with JJ and fold TT.

[Snupoker]

I hadnt seen him play enough hands do give a fair weak-tight or weak-loose image. I felt he hand played a previously hand poorly and was looking to make a comeback on the 1st hand of the new level. His bet size of just under 6bb just reeked of something not right. (I felt AA, KK, QQ would not ever raise this much and all other hands he would fold to my all-in)

In the end, he waited 5 minutes looked like he wanted to muck repeatedly but made a crying call with 10-10. Unfortunately, the board came 2-2-5-9-3 and my hand was no good.

I initially questioned my decision to put the tournament on the line with a coin flip at best, but am starting to think this was a solid move with him having a high folding equity based on my weak read. Unfortunately he called off his tournament with a close hand and it held up. Any thoughts on this?

[Prime Time]

You wrote that you thought he was trying to steal UG.
People don't steal from UG. Too many players to get by.
What you sensed was a made hand that did not want over pairs drawing.
I figured him for 99-QQ not wanting to see a flop w/ A or K in it. I would have mucked in this spot, because the best I could hope for was a coin flip, which you got.

Pete

[Snupoker]

This is a very true observation. I felt that he was very weak and would not call an all in. In the case he did call my all-in I felt that he did not hold AA-KK-QQ and i was a coin flip at worst. Obviously this is not a good play if I feel he will call with 88 or better. However, I thought he would dump almost instantly, but I must have given information about my weakness that led him to call.