QJo on button steal

[arkady]

Villain just sat down and I think this is his first BB.

Just wondering about the flop/turn.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

[captZEEbo1]

looks good to me, maybe skip flop raise and wait until turn to pop him.

[arkady]

if he pops back on turn, do u still call down?

[balkii]

personally i'd just call this all the way down and bet if checked to. i tend to do this a LOT vs 3-bettors.

if you consider a range of hands here, the only hand he might have that he might fold that you would want him to (we're of course talking about hands you are ahead of) is AK no heart.

he wont fold a better hand and he'll probably keep betting a lone Kh or Ah the whole way regardless.

how does that sound?

[J.R.]

what about all the missed value from the middle pairs and big aces suspicious of a turn semi-blufflooking positional raise in a blind steal spot and the single hearts (and maybe less) that want to draw.

he has top pair and the 3rd nut flush redraw in aggressive game in a headsup blind steal spot = mad equity. a read might help, but I assume I am a fairly big favorite on this flop and will usually wait to pop the turn. but I couudn't see not raising unless he was real weak and you didn't want to knock the preflop 3-bettor off his hand or the 3-bettor was real passove and straightforward.

and don't fold to a 3-bet

[arkady]

so you are suggesting that i raise the turn in this situation, either:

1) after I get 3-bet on the flop
2) call flop, raise turn

What if I submit to you that after I raise the turn the drawing hands call the extra turn bet (big aces) but fold to river. While if i DO not raise the turn they continue bluffing UI on the river. I thus make the same when I am ahead...I am assuming any other holding I dominate now will like you said blow him off the hand. like 88 or something.

[tongni]

Why not cap the flop? I don't think he's folding anywhere, and you don't risk a turn 3 bet.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
what about all the missed value from the middle pairs and big aces suspicious of a turn semi-blufflooking positional raise in a blind steal spot

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think they fold to a river bet, espeically a non-heart. the pfr 3-bettor isn't bluffing with these hands, he is value betting, and I think these hands are likely. I was more responding to balkii's idea of chekc-call... I think you ahve to raise somewhere.

I usually wait until the turn without a heart. with the heart I may be more inclined to raise the flop (and less inclined to fear a 3-bet), but I wait to the turn too much anyway.

[balkii]

I was more responding to balkii's idea of chekc-call...

you realize hero has position in this hand? which makes a passive line able to maximize bets much better than check calling.

not saying my response is necessarily correct because i do feel i use the "let them bet my hand for me" plays a little too often, but if you werent aware we had position that is a crucial factor.

[J.R.]

I know he's in position, I'm thinking about a call v. raise, not a check v. bet (sorry about that typo confusion- it was late last night)

hands he is behind to- AA, KK, QQ, AJ, KJ, JJ, (hearts- AKs, ATs, KTs, A9s

hands he beat- AK(s), AQ(s), KQ(s), AT(s), A9s, A8s, KTs, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66

comments on the range? If i include the 22 and 44 it hurts hero, and maybe I overestimate this guys ablity to 3-bets suited aces and broadway cards

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: Jh 3h 4h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 29.6581 % [ 00.30 00.00 ] { AA-66, AKs-A8s, KQs-KTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }
Hand 2: 70.3419 % [ 00.70 00.00 ] { QhJd }

</pre><hr />


<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Board: Jh 3h 4h 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 29.0559 % [ 00.28 00.01 ] { AA-66, AKs-A8s, KQs-KTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo }
Hand 2: 70.9441 % [ 00.70 00.01 ] { QhJd }
</pre><hr />


But the issue isn't really sim solvable, because some hands will fold to a turn raise (but fewer to a flop raise). And we are assuming he would have bluffed/mistakenly value bet most worse hands had we just called, and I am not so sure about that, although I agree there are a number of worse hands that will continue to bluff if we do not stop him by raising. Plus some hands that have you crushed (and some that only have you beat, like black aces) will 3-bet a flop raise, and to a lesser extent a turn raise... but having the Q hearts does buffer this downside a fair deal.

There are also some (I think more than just "soem", but...) worse hands that will call a turn or flop raise and look you up on the river, especially if there is no turn or rivered heart as this is a very semi-bluffable board with no A, K or Q and 3 hearts, and it was a blind steal situation. further, any hand with a heart will look you up if the river is a heart (and you beat most of them).

But if he pays off a turn raise, he has put in as many bets as he would if he just bluffed the whole way. sure you will lose more if he improves or he 3-bets, but you also gain more than merely calling down each time he pays off a raise and a river bet and many times your are 3-bet on the turn your Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif helps provide you a nice redraw.

For me it basically it comes down to you most often have the best hand, you most often have the best draw, and you have an opponent who is unkown but who should rightly ssupect will be suspicious of you and a flop or turn raise, so they err towards calling down.

[arkady]

Pretty good analysis on this hand, thanks guys. Definitely something to consider.

Villain showed: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif and MHIG