Raising 22

[CourtJester]

I play 1/2 irl at a local indian card room and the typical player is 70%+ VPIP with PFR and aggresion changing everytime the table thinks that the pots havent been big enough. Ive been at tables where im the only one folding hands and people look at me weird. Well i was just wondering if it would be profitable, on one of the jucy nights where im at the table thats 100% VPIP, to raise w/ 22 on the button or even CO. Would just like to hear some thoughts on the concept too. Thanks all

[Megenoita]

I think the general concensus will be that there are better hands with which to accomplish what you're trying to do with 22. At a table like you describe, if there are 5 limpers, sure, raise. Or, limp with it a lot and go crazy when you flop a set because these guys will pay it off. 22 is not a good hand to isolate with.

M

[KingOtter]

Do they typically re-raise?

SSH says low pocket pairs are good for up to 2 SB pf. If you raise it, and are likely to be re-raised, then I would say probably not.

If there was a raise early, and 3 cold-callers, I'd cold-call a pocket pair, if I knew that the people behind me were very unlikely to raise it again.

But, then, I'm only an internet player. Have yet to play in a B&M.

KO

[CourtJester]

I pretty much had in mind a 7-9 player flop and was wondering if my implied odds of hitting my set were enough to justify this raise. The con of this is that even if i hit my set i have to dodge 6-8 calling stations.
The players I generally play with at this cardroom are very sparatic. They might never raise the whole night w/o the nuts or they might just raise because they saw another person raise and then another cap just because they liked to say cappucino. Normally though thier aggresion factors are <1 and will give my free cards so if i would raise this and everyone called, i might miss my set, it be checked to me and i get my turn for free, or even bet at it, becuase i know that people are coming for the ride. Just some thoughts i want more insight into this. Thanks again.

[Megenoita]

You typically want 5:1 PF to justify being in the pot with a pp, HOWEVER, if you know guys are going to play horribly post flop, you don't even need that. If you anticipate 7-9 handed flops with bad post flop players, CAP with 22! Definitely. You're playing for your set, but when you hit it, it will stand up a great % of the time. Incredibly profitable. So where is this game???

M

[Sykes]

[ QUOTE ]
You typically want 5:1 PF to justify being in the pot with a pp, HOWEVER, if you know guys are going to play horribly post flop, you don't even need that. If you anticipate 7-9 handed flops with bad post flop players, CAP with 22! Definitely. You're playing for your set, but when you hit it, it will stand up a great % of the time. Incredibly profitable. So where is this game???

M

[/ QUOTE ]

12% rake makes this move unprofitable. Plus the odds of hitting a set is 8:1 meaning you need the 8 other people on the table to come along for the ride. Second, you need your set to hold up and it's not going to hold up 100% of the time when you have 8 people coming along for the ride.

While this game is slightly breakable, the rake of 12%+ eats you alive.

[Megenoita]

I'm befuddled. The rake is a joke compared to how much profit you're going to make when you spike a set. A joke.

"Plus the odds of hitting a set is 8:1 meaning you need the 8 other people on the table to come along for the ride."

This is wrong application of math. You seem to think only in terms of immediate odds. The value of your hand is in the implied odds. Sklansky and Miller say you need about 5:1 in average games to compensate for your 7.51:1 odds of flopping a set (including times you make a set and still lose). They also say that if they players are particularly bad, you don't even always need 5:1 PF.

This decision isn't close. With a bunch of donks (7-9 PF), you should raise and reraise for value. If you cap 22 against 8 other players, you are going to run over that game.

M

[Sykes]

Sorry for upping this post, but let me get this clear:

I should always cap with any pocket pair if I have 7 other callers?

[Megenoita]

The idea of capping pre flop is that you are playing with a group of people that play way too many hands and most probably go way too far with them. Because of this, your implied odds when you hit a set are insanely high, and if you knew all would go 4 bets with you PF (6 other people, 7 other people, even 5 other bad players), then you should be obliged-when you hit your set, you'll be paid off incredibly well.

Of course, I'm not advocating that if UTG raises, UTG+1 reraises, that you should cap with 22 /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I'm talking about situations where you KNOW most players are going to see the flop with most hands.

In these games, suited connectors, Axs, Kxs, and pairs have very high value.

M

[crumpentunt]

Little help understanding this...

If 7-9 people are seeing the flop and you have 22 with the option of raising to make it 2 bets for everyone to see the flop, this is a raise for value because your hand will win more often than 1 out of 7 or 1 out of 9?

If there was a reason to raise, I can understand that reasoning, but I dont understand why raising this preflop has anything to do with implied odds?

Implied odds are completely post flop dependant. I can understand that with 7 to 9 people seeing the flop, I'll be dying to put in chips with my 22 as well, but I dont see how raising preflop has anything to do with implied odds..

Is the reason we are raising because of pot equity or because of implied odds? Am I mixing up concepts? Anything comments are helpful.

[Megenoita]

"Implied odds are completely post flop dependant."

If you have 7-9 other people limping, you should most definitely raise with 22. Implied odds increase because with twice as much money in the pot, bad players will now chase much more, most likely drawing nearly dead when you flop a set. Your win % will go down, but your profit shoots up. The raise also disguises your hand and makes you look a little looser when you're really uber tight, so it's good for table image which I think you were concerned with. Although implied odds have to do with post flop bets, it can be influenced heavily by pre flop play. Against the group of guys you're up against, this should prove to increase profit tremendously.

And usually pre flop, 22 is break even-slightly ahead of 7-9 opponents who play most of their hands.

M