final picks for Sunday

Here are my final picks for Sunday. Though I don't have a lot of time to explain why I picked them, I will do so in summary.

I decided to take some ML this weekend.

PIT -135 They have won most of the games against Baltimore. And since most "rematches" tend to go the same way, I felt this was the smart play. I also felt like Pit has been on fire recently.

OAK -145 They are coming off two straight up losses. I felt the reason the spread was so little and the money line was fairly small was because of lack of faith in the betting community on Oakland.

NE -3 I used what I interpreted one of Wildbill's theories on this one. New England has lost their last 3 games. So, the line is low because of "lack of faith." I agreed with WB that this line should be more like 4 or 5. I booked this game to late, but was really trying to get it at 2.5. Oh well.

Good luck,

Craig R.

P.S. Any feedback on my reasoning would be greatly appreciated. And please no "after the fact" feedback. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

[TAFKAn]

Well, I waited until "after the fact" just to be contrary.

You asked for feedback on the reasoning, so regardless of results, the feedback should be helpful.

You said:
OAK -145 I felt the reason the spread was so little and the money line was fairly small was because of lack of faith in the betting community on Oakland.

That may be true, but I think it's a poor reason to take a bet. Lack of faith in the betting community of a team's city is probably not a good reason to bet or not bet. I'm fairly sure it's irrelevant and also hard to verify.

PIT -135 They have won most of the games against Baltimore. And since most "rematches" tend to go the same way,

Is this true? I've never heard that or noticed it. Also, is this really a "rematch". They haven't played yet this year.

You said:
I also felt like Pit has been on fire recently.

I agree with you 100% there. Tommy Maddox has that team fired up and although my initial take on the game was to back Baltimore, I passed because of this very thing. PIT seems to be on fire.

By "after the fact" I meant telling me why my reasoning was wrong because of events that took place during the game. I knew most of the replys would be after the game happened. So, I don't consider your evaluation "after the fact."

I chose my wording wrong when I said "rematch." I guess I meant rivalry. These teams are considered a rivalry and Pit has come out ahead during most of them. I hope that clears that up. And when most teams are considered "rivals" and one usually comes out ahead, the next game tends to go the same way.

When I discussed the "public's opinion" about a team, I probably looked into this too deeply. Either way it is speculation on my part, and not a big enough factor to place a bet on.

Thank you for your input on these games. One other thing that I realized that will probably save me some money is this: If a team is a 3 point or less favorite and I want to back them, but am not sure if they will cover at that number, it is probably a good idea NOT to bet the money line on the game. I would be better of passing or giving the points; that way i would risk less money.

craig